The data for excess deaths is out from the ONS. Because I am teaching this afternoon I have been a bit distracted, but now I have looked at it.
As ever, this data will be understated: there are delays in registration and given that there has been a massive jump in excess deaths at home and post mortems are required in those cases the delays could be significant. I am being cautious in estimating an impact of this in what follows.
But assuming the linear growth from the week to 3 April to 10 April continues for at least another week or (which is a probable underestimate) and that we may only be peaking about now and that the data is also understated for delays I suspect that the true figure for excess deaths is approaching 30,000 now, and is definitely not less than 25,000 (there has to be some uncertainty in this). That is at least 50% higher than government data. I stress, I think that I have been incredibly cautious in estimating this. I have seen other reputable people estimating at around the 30,000 level.
However, the worrying thing is what happens now we know this. My estimate implies a death rate of more than 11,000 a week now. And there is no sign that this will come down: at best it might plateau, which is what would happen with a reinfection rate of 1. I really cannot imagine it's less than that as yet, and I can't see reason without mass testing why it will go lower. Any easing in lockdown will, of course, increase the rate, and so the deaths.
Given that, and a continuing death rate of this figure (including maybe 100 healthcare workers a week) then the deaths from coronavirus are going to be quite scary. Remember, the UK government's aim is not to end them, unlike other countries. We are literally doing nothing to achieve that. We are instead trying to contain them at the level the NHS can manage (just about). The result is that Covid-19 deaths in the UK are now going to run into hundreds of thousands eventually, and not the 20,000 the government said would be a good outcome, which now feels like a claim from the ancient history of this crisis.
When other countries by early lockdown and track and trace will actually contain this issue, we won't. We will just endure continuing excess deaths.
And that has catastrophic consequences because even if we end lockdown others may not want to deal with us. After all, why will France want to allow shipping from a country not seriously seeking to contain coronavirus when they are?
In that case worry for our food supply chains. Because that is where this policy gets very real: if we are locked down from the rest of the world that matters, as I now think likely, we are in much more trouble than we currently think.
On any reasonable basis of forecasting based on this government's approach, we are going to have a torrid time whilst many of our neighbours look on.
And there may now be little we can do about it.
Electing Boris Johnson may turn out to have been one of the biggest mistakes this country could ever have made.
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It is still so very difficult to make any secure projection of numbers of Covid deaths in this country – and it is worth recognising, that this is a problem which all our neighbouring ‘trading partners’ (if that is not too optimistic a phrase in the land of ‘Brexitania’) will also have. It would surely be unsurprising if their estimates of our degree of infection and our continuing infectivity, erred on the cautious side. It is for this reason, that I believe your estimates are particularly telling. Even if they were to prove larger than what finally emerges, they do probably reflect – at least – the way that outsiders are likely to regard us…. and that is neither a pretty nor a comfortable reflection. That’s why I reckon your anxieties about food supplies – and much else (medicines?) – are scarily on point.
The Johnson-Cummings Conservatives – plus their ‘Brexit’ – may yet prove the worst contagion of all.
“When you are in a hole, stop digging”. There is no evidence that HMG is even trying to learn from its mistakes. In the corporate sector the CEO would have been replaced by now, with someone that would put in hand processes to try and reduce the risks that abound everywhere one looks. The statement that “you get the government you deserve” is a horrible condemnation of the electorate.
Looks like Matt Hancock is being set up to take the first fall (report from New Statesman quoting the Daily Telegraph). He is nowhere near reaching his 100,000 target tests by the end of April. It also appears that 25% of Public Health tests for the virus fail to pick it up, unlike the commercial tests which we are now desperate to purchase. This particularly affects the hospital staff who may have been passing on the virus to their colleagues and families. The Telegraph also reports that we are still sending PPE to Europe. Polly Toynbee in today’s Guardian echoes your view that the government’s handling of the pandemic has been an utter disaster.
He may go
But how many reshuffles will make a difference?
Did you see this? Prof. John Ashton – Regional Director of Public Health for Cumbria for 13 years and controversial president of the Faculty of Public Health 2013 to 2016 (Wiki) – ‘speaking truth to power’ yesterday. He seems to be quite emotional about what he’s saying – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuoAst1CZDo.
The evidence is accumulating, disclosure by disclosure. Surely there must eventually be political repercussions. For how much longer can they spin their version of the facts?
He is very, very good
Matt Hancock was always going to fail and its interesting that rumour puts him among the more sensible members of cabinet. The others want lockdown to end sooner. Who would replace him?
Isn’t Gove supposedly co-ordinating the Govt response to the crisis, why isn’t he in the frame? and how about where the buck stops?
I’m also seeing various reports about there being several variants of this virus in different regions and it’s currently bewildering ability to mutate which scientists can’t keep up with,
the more people infected then the more potential for mutation,
if there are already 3 significantly different mutations there is the possibility of managing to catch one, recover, catch the 2nd, recover and then catch the third,
the odds of having a bad outcome from one infection are admittedly slim but once you start stacking those odds over a series of infections the likelihood of one of the bouts becoming serious increases,
loosening lockdowns and allowing international travel will only compound the challenges we currently face,
there has to be some cautious position somewhere between fully locked down and fully opened up that will allow essential activities to be carried out but not let the infections, reinfections and redistribution of mutations to spiral out of control,
the Imperial College modelling suggested this might all carry on into early 2022,
sure, it’s only a model, but I think it does grasp the scale and duration of this challenging situation,
I think the situation in the UK is reasonably stable atm, a certain amount of people pre empted the official lockdown and reduced their exposure, since the lockdown Britons have mostly been responsible and self disciplined,
overall all we’ve achieved around 80% lockdown which has delivered results,
the slow motion train wreck on the view screen is the USA, their lockdown has been patchy and erratic, overall they’ve managed about a 50% lockdown, it’s not enough,
the virus on the east coast appears to be a different version to the one on the west coast, there is every chance that as one version sweeps eastward the other version will sweep westward, should the third version be introduced idk wtf will happen!
add to this all those barmy end the lockdown demonstrations,
I’m glad I’m here and not there!
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study
I wonder if our gov have any idea of the pf how much we are losing in the field of general knowledge and personal skills. I am reminded of the lose of water in Gloucester in 2006 or there abouts. the area I live in kept a good supply and people panicked because not even the water company could say where. the water came from. when normal cervice was resumed an old lady at a bus stop explained that it was the emergency supply demanded by the local aircraft factory for their war precautions. She knew as her husband had been part of the team that designed and built it. His knowledge was made redundant when privatisation was all the rage amd many comments were made about loss of corporate memory and skill.
Richard you say that the UK government response is not to end deaths from coronavirus but reduce them to a level which the NHS can cope with. You use this as an attack on the government and say that this is not what other countries are doing.
By end deaths from coronavirus do you mean zero deaths? Is that the serious policy of any government? Is every country not working to reduce infections to a level at which their health systems can cope? Infectious disease is a fact of life. Dealing with it is built into how health systems and health policy are organised and decided throughout the world. There is a trade-off between intervention and death.
At what point in your opinion do the usual rules of health policy come into play again. When do we again say that some lives are too costly to save?
It would appear others are working for elimination, or most certainly a reinfection rate of well below 1
We would be happy with 1
That is very, very different
Hi Richard
Given you were predicting 10k deaths a day two weeks ago what are the drivers to arrive at your new estimate of 11,000 a week? Conservative approach working better than anticipated or other factors at play?
The conclusion is obvious: lock down has worked to some degree
That was why it was done
The inference is clear: the price has been worth paying
Was it that hard to work that out?
But we still have exceptional death rates
There’s a very interesting article on the BBC’s website pointing out that the huge variance around the world in the way tests are carried out, what tests are carried out, which deaths are and are not included in the statistics and when, the influence of epidemiology on the numbers on infections and deaths, the stage at which the outbreak is in each country, the eventual outcomes of various strategies and so on that it’s far to early to begin to be able to draw conclusions about what the final outcome will be or the effectiveness of each countries actions. This conclusion the article reached after talking to experts in the field with as full a knowledge of the facts as is possible in the circumstances
But you seem certain. Based on what?
I indicate ranges of risk
All the experts I read think the range in which I am placing my suggestion is fair
And I am talking to those who know more than I do on this issue
I don’t understand what the conference centre hospitals are about. I’d (obviously wrongly) assumed that they were to be the ‘go to’ place now for covid patients, with general hospitals taking the rest of cases.
I believe the New York conference centre hospital similarly is lightly used so it’s not just the UK.
I guess the private hospitals will have added to NHS capacity but surely not to a huge extent. And not ICU capacity.
Unless the field hospitals are the capacity for wave 2?
They were based on a mistaken belief that a) this was just flu and it isn’t and b) there were staff and there aren’t
They would have become palliative care units if the NHS had been overwhelmed
Thankfully that has not been the case
One of the unknowns with respect to food imports is the attitude of truck drivers & the use of non-UK truck drivers to bring food into the UK. Continental (print) media for the most part lacks the supine qualities so evident in UK print media & is thus likely to tell it as it is. As things get better (as they are in Germany, Belgium and others), there will be a chance to step back and look at the UK. 30,000 deaths and climbing is “not a good look” and it would not be difficult for some to portray the UK as one big open air leper colony run by clowns. If I was a truck driver I may not be overly keen to go to the UK. As for Uk drivers picking up loads in mainland Europe: I can make a guess what the French will do:
1st test people (thoroughly) then disinfect the truck, “ah monsiour – take all your clothes off” – just in case etc etc. Think in terms of at least 1 day, just to get into France.
As the EU gets on top of the virus and the UK does not the island will become increasingly sealed off.
Apparently 30% of the electorate voted for the fatberg & his popularity rating, remains high. I wonder why and I wonder for how long.
Anecdote: the fatbergs capacity for work, or lack thereof has been known for some time. Two or three years after the election of the fatberg as LondonMajor, Livingston revisited his old office (also used by the fatberg) he noted that hardly anything had moved – it was as if the current occupant was either never there or never did anything, current events suggest that little has changed & that indeed, the Boris Johnson is basically all piss & wind.
I am having a hard time reconciling earlier reports on care home deaths with what’s being reported today. I know the ONS has been producing stats from out of hospital COVID-19 deaths based on death certificates for a few weeks, and I read this report awhile ago, suggesting there were 2100 out of hospital deaths up until April 3rd. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-uk-outside-hospital-care-home-latest-a9463621.html
I just heard it reported (on Radio X) that there were 1000 deaths in care homes up until 10th April. Which of these is correct? Have the ONS revised earlier figures, and/or did the independent get it wrong? Have the government been manipulating reports?
It’s shocking to me that as a nation we can’t even manage to add up the number of deaths correctly.
10 April is 11 days ago
And deaths reported are those recorded until then
Not actual deaths
The real number is therefore higher than those reported
We can, I admit, only guess by how much but there if a delay and exponential growth
What I was trying to get at is if you know recorded deaths outside of hospitals on April 10th, which mention CoVID-19 on death certificates, then add that to the latest PHE figures for hospital deaths then you get a minimum number of deaths, (with a time lag on Non-hospital deaths).
I’d been adding 2100 to the hospital deaths figures as a ballpark for the total number given the report I mentioned.
However, the figures of recorded deaths outside of hospital seem to have gone down since the last figures I saw reported on April 3rd. That’s why I was questioning it. I haven’t looked at the raw ONS figures myself yet, but will have a look later to try to understand who made the mistake (maybe the independent).
I do understand these are both far lower than the actual number of deaths, but finding confirmed deaths across the whole country seems perfectly simple aim that the media is not attempting to do right now. We know people who definitely had CoVID19 when they died in hospital and we know people who died outside of hospital and probably had it (given by dr on death certificates). Therefore the two added together is the minimum number of CoVID deaths?
They have gone up!
Go and read the data
No journalist at the daily briefing has asked whether the aim is to bring deaths right down over the next few weeks – ‘eliminate’ as New Zealand S Korea, China etc.
Ministers are sticking to their ‘protect the NHS’ mantra, which could include letting more people die over the next year or so, rather than bringing deaths down to near zero before releasing the lockdown.
But they are now also saying they want to ensure against another wave of infection. The only way this might be possible would be to squash infections down to a minimum – which would give the ‘test, contact trace and isolate’ exit strategy a chance of success.
This policy contradiction needs to be resolved – if only journalists would push on it.
I wish…
In fairness I’m not sure that other European countries have really addressed that either (happy to be corrected!).
Would it even be possible in the UK? Presumably it is. I’d imagine that would be a long-term border closure, very invasive tracking and a shutdown for the foreseeable. Unpleasant. But not impossible I guess. High reward though if it works.
By this stage, I think that we all (may) know what is needed now and I note that the Common Weal thinks it too on the Twitter feed.
The question remains however as to what does it mean for our political situation and the Tory party?
Some in the Labour party also need to reflect on what they have been up to recently given the recent leaked report on the handling of Anti-Semitism and other complaints – and I’m not talking about the likes of just Corbyn or Milne either.
You could not make it up: an incompetent, arrogant Government who are effectively good at killing people, twinned with a divided, weak opposition as an alternative.
What a confluence of crappiness we face.
Lets look at some European countries
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/04/16/covid-excess-death/78597d5af39a1afbfcf3976809150898ede91958/europe-420.png
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/04/16/covid-excess-death/78597d5af39a1afbfcf3976809150898ede91958/europe-p2-420.png
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/04/16/covid-excess-death/78597d5af39a1afbfcf3976809150898ede91958/europe-p2-420.png
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/04/16/covid-excess-death/78597d5af39a1afbfcf3976809150898ede91958/europe-p2-420.png
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2020/04/16/covid-excess-death/78597d5af39a1afbfcf3976809150898ede91958/europe-420.png
I can’t find one on Germany. Anyone?
Maybe the govt is having ideas about maintaining the lockdown till Brexit, and after that, perhaps as some form of emergency procedure. They’d just have to keep switching tack from moment to moment till they get there, and that does seem to be happening for now.
I’ll try a repost of my previoys attempt which ended up showing links to graphs without labels (sorry) – I’m not saying the following dates & numbers are accurate but they are quoted in the New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?
They even have them as pretty graphs so that even the hard of hearing can get the picture.
Note also that Sweden too has taken off!
Area PCT. above normal Excess deaths − Reported Covid-19 deaths = Difference
Spain
Mar. 9 — Apr. 5 66% 19,700 − 12,401 = 7,300
England & Wales
Mar. 7 — Apr. 10 33% 16,700 − 10,335 = 6,300
New York City
Mar. 11 — Apr. 18 298% 17,200 − 13,240 = 4,000
France
Mar. 9 — Apr. 5 21% 10,500 − 8,059 = 2,500
Netherlands
Mar. 9 — Apr. 5 33% 4,000 − 2,166 = 1,900
Istanbul
Mar. 9 — Apr. 12 29% 2,100 − 1,006 = 1,100
Jakarta
March 36% 1,000 − 84 = 900
Belgium
Mar. 9 — Apr. 5 25% 2,300 − 1,632 = 700
Switzerland
Mar. 9 — Apr. 5 21% 1,000 − 712 = 300
Sweden
Mar. 9 — Apr. 12 12% 1,100 −
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