It would seem that the FT thinks I was far too cautious in my extrapolation of the excess deaths data yesterday. It suggests that:
The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.
This chart is telling:
As is this one:
It seems impossible that the government did not know that these deaths outside hospitals were occurring and yet they chose to ignore them.
Despite this, the FT think deaths may now have plateaued. I tend to agree. But if they have, it would be at a figure of well over 1,000 a day. And unless the reinfection rate falls to below 1 there is no good reason why this will change. In that case my suggestion that the UK might still be facing hundreds of thousands of excess deaths this year stands.
But, and there is a proviso, which is this:
The ONS data also showed that the vast majority of all excess deaths were people aged over 75 years old. This age bracket accounted for 70 per cent of the total, the same proportion as those with Covid-19 on their death certificates.
This virus is not indifferent. It is not true that all are facing an equal threat from it. The more elderly in our country, and others, are at by far the most at risk from it. And that has significant social consequence. But that's for another post.
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https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1252887249093570560
Andrew Neil is have a bit of fit on twitter saying FT figures for Covid 19 deaths are wrong. What is your take on his assertion Richard?
Its interesting he comes out to defend the government but not its handling etc.
I am lower than the FT
Neil is almost always wrong
Seem so Richard, thanks for the reply.
From reading the tweets AN has put out his main point is that the headline gives the impression that the FT figures are fact from an analysis, whereas they are actually projections. He then explains how they are compiled.
He goes on to say that the FT may well be right, but we will have to wait until the ‘non-hospital’ figures from the ONS for 24 April. He has not suggested any alternative figure.
I can’t see anywhere he ‘defends the Government’
Again, again and again, no sensible decisions can be made without good data. The cows (that’s us) are obviously too unimportant to matter, so keep them ignorant (the famous mushroom principle). But do the bulls (those that are petted, preend, and polished) bother to find out what is going on? With no oversight and no moral hazard why should they?
“impossible that the government did not know that these deaths outside hospitals were occurring and yet they chose to ignore them”
Head in the sand stuff – the fatberg is an entertainer and only wants to give Uk serfs good news – & only in-extremis does he go the bad news route.
Arguably his continued absence is an inability/unwillingness to face the bad news (coupled to his congential laziness): hence the clown-gov’ ignoring deaths outside hospitals.
More seriously is the bias of the virus to kill the Tories electoral base: old people. The longer it goes on, the more this base will erode – and old people’s relatives may not be jumping for joy with respect to a clown gov’ & its actions or lack thereof.
Starting to look like 100,000 dead a national disgrace and even more so when one looks to what is happening in other European countires.
I am a social media site for where I live and dip into one for where I used to live. There are a surprising number of people who are saying things like:
they are doing their best
no one could have foreseen this
This is not the time for criticism
I can’t stand these journalists with their “would’ve, could’ve, should’ve, questions. If this was 1940, we’d have given up by now. (yes, really)
things are just as bad or worse elsewhere
I wonder just how bad it has to get before they blame the govt. for its failures?
I think more and more of Siegfried Sassoon
Base Details
If I were fierce, and bald, and short of breath,
I’d live with scarlet Majors at the Base,
And speed glum heroes up the line to death.
You’d see me with my puffy petulant face,
Guzzling and gulping in the best hotel,
Reading the Roll of Honour. “Poor young chap,”
I’d say–”I used to know his father well;
Yes, we’ve lost heavily in this last scrap.”
And when the war is done and youth stone dead,
I’d toddle safely home and die–in bed.
We need to remember that 9 out of 10 of the deaths we hear reported each day could have been prevented.
And the glum heroes know they will be exposed with inadequate protection and will have a higher death rate than the general population.
I think people are underestimating the amount of support the tories have. I have come across working class people who support them no matter what. In their view they have worked all their lives and if “lazy” or the “proliferate” people cannot help themselves then so be it. Why should government help them they say, we have done right and the tories have our interests at heart. You see they are all for the government paying “people” their wages, it is not socialism for them as it’s need in these strange times, After all they believe themselves to be deserving and more so than others. There lots of them, no they not raving nuts, they help people who they deem deserving, it is the other they despise and yeah they believe homeless people and people on benefits are really rich. I kid you not – for me nothing will change and it will go back to normal once a fake covi19 cure is found and people will sing the tories praise. Just look at the poll number they are getting, – do not ignore them.
Agree completely. Their belief in self-reliance however stops when it comes to inheritance. Their respect for hard work also doesn’t stop them from enjoying consumer goods produced by workers overseas putting in twelve hours shifts daily for poverty wages. The motivation is selfishness, pure and simple.
To give you and others a bit of perspective, 41,000 is:
Just under half the capacity of Wembley Stadium
Roughly 8 x the seating capacity of the Royal Albert Hall.
2 x the seating capacity of the O2 arena
3 x the seating capacity of the Wembley arena
Roughly the seating capacity of the following Premier league grounds:
Goodison Park – Everton
Hillsborough – Sheffield Wednesday
Villa Park – Aston Villa
Stamford Bridge – Chelsea
No cricketing test arena (i.e. Lords, Headingly, Oval, Old Trafford) in the UK has a capacity that comes anywhere near 41,000 (Lords I think is closest with 30,000)
When you look at it like that, the numbers are truly horrifying
Apologies to Sheffield Wednesday fans. I know you are not in the Premier League. Too hasty with my post !!!!!!!
Partly that’s because journalists and the like are, to say the least, not easy people to love and get behind. People tend to forget that the establishment is not just politicians.
More generally though the political fall out will come. Just not now. My feeling is that people (as distinct from people on twitter) just don’t want to turn this into a culture war. And actually I’m glad about that.
There will be political fallout – just it won’t be on the internet’s on demand timeline.
I think we’re at an early stage of understanding the transmission routes for the coronavirus. To take an example I decided to explore what HVAC engineers are saying about air-conditioned buildings. It would appear the jury’s out in regard to whether air handling can be a source of transmission. Certainly during cold temperature weather the air handling equipment can be changed to stop any recirculating of air and all air to be fresh but that will substantially increase energy costs. This effectively leaves users of air-conditioned builders at the mercy of a buildings management personnel. Here is some relevant reading material:-
https://www.ashrae.org/file%20library/about/position%20documents/airborne-infectious-diseases.pdf
Of course we should bear in mind it’s not just air-conditioned buildings we should be wary of it’s also multiple occupant transportation systems.