Trump controls the Presidency, Senate and, most likely, the House. He has no excuses for not delivering on his promises as a result. But, he is also going to rely on very inexperienced people to deliver them. The chance that a great deal will go wrong is high. And if he fails the backlash from voters will be strong. 2026 might be a good year for the Democrats.
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
2025 is going to be a nightmare year for Donald Trump. He is cock-a-hoop right now. He's just won the presidency. The Republicans control the Senate. It looks quite possible that they will control the House of Representatives as well.
So, what is the consequence? Donald Trump is in charge and that's what's going to create his nightmare. There are no excuses this time for Donald Trump not to deliver on his promises.
And he has made a mighty lot of promises. Almost everybody in the USA seems to have been offered something.
It might be that he's going to create tariffs, which will, of course, create inflation.
It might be that he's going to expel 11 million or more undocumented people, which is going to destroy hordes of American companies and deny workforces to most of the care sector in the USA.
It might be that he's going to withdraw funding for Ukraine and make the USA into an isolationist territory, and that is going to create international chaos from which the USA will suffer.
We could go on. The point I'm making is that whatever Trump has promised, he's now got no excuses for not delivering. And what we know is that between 2016 and 2020, Trump delivered on very few of his promises, indeed.
Look at ‘The Wall'. It didn't happen. The bits that were built replaced earlier, smaller sections of the wall that were already there. The number of actual new extensions? Tiny.
Did he get Mexico to pay for it, as he said he would in 2016? No, of course he didn't.
Did he succeed in delivering massive tax cuts for the wealthy? Yes, he did that.
But did he do anything for most working people in America? No, he didn't. That is why he was voted out of office in 2020, of course.
And this time, he hasn't got the excuses he had back then of having some opposition to his plans. He will have the ultimate in the US power dream, control of the Presidency, the Senate and the House altogether. There are no obstacles to his progress.
But, unless he hits the ground running very hard in 2025, which of course he might, unleashing mayhem all over the place, including trillions of pounds of cuts in the US federal budget, cutting Medicaid for vast numbers of old people, and cutting the education budget, creating mayhem in those sectors as well - unless he does all of that he will not, by the time of the midterm elections, which arise in just two years' time, have succeeded in delivering on any of his promises.
And what happens if he doesn't do that? There will be the most massive buyer's regret amongst the US population.
We've already seen such a thing happen here in the UK. Labour won the general election in early July and are now behind the Tories in the polls. Now, polls, we know, aren't necessarily the whole truth, but the point is, there is no doubt that Labour's popularity has collapsed since the time that it won a significant majority in the House of Commons. And it's collapsed because it doesn't know how to deliver.
And I very strongly suspect that Trump doesn't know how to deliver either.
One of the things that characterised his administration from 2016 to 2020 was the fact that he pulled in experienced people to try to deliver his promises. They all ended up disenchanted, and most of them were sacked, but the point was, competent people could not do what he wanted.
This time, he's not going to do that. He's going to bring in people untried and untested in the process of government, like Elon Musk, for example, who knows nothing about how to administer a government department, let alone a Federal budget, and try to deliver change nonetheless.
Now, I'm not saying it is impossible for people to change government when they have no prior experience. Labour in 1945 had relatively limited experience of government, at least in government leadership. But even though you can say they were untried and untested at the scale that they had to face at that time, Clement Attlee had basically run Winston Churchill's government during the Second World War. He knew what he was doing, but I suspect that very people in the Trump administration will.
The likelihood, as a consequence, that there will be massive errors in the delivery of programmes will be enormous. The chance that chaos will arise is very high.
Will the Fed and the Trump administration fall out over interest rate policy, particularly if Trump drives up inflation, as it seems that he might? Yes, I think that's likely, and that will cause problems all over the place for his government and for the people of the USA.
Will the dollar swing wildly in price, depending upon his policy and what he does in foreign relations? That's also likely.
My point is simply this. Trump is not an experienced governor.
He relied on others from 2016 to 2020 and failed. Now, he's going to rely on people without experience in government - often of any sort at all. And I think they will fail. Even his vice president has only been in the Senate for two years. So, the chance that he will turn his victory into a success in 2025 is quite low.
If he doesn't, then in the run-up to the 2026 midterm elections, expect the Democrats to be back in town if they can get their act together. If they can't, well, everything is on the table. But I think that Trump is going to face such a nightmare in 2025 in delivering the promises that he has made to so many people, which he is probably incapable of delivering upon.
That the Democrats will swing back, and from the middle of his presidency onwards, he will not control the Senate, and he will not control the House, and he will, therefore, face constructive opposition at every point to which he turns, and therefore his chance of delivery from then on will be close to zero.
Trump may be a very happy man at this moment, but the likelihood that that will continue appears to me to be very low.
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Be careful what you wish for, you might get it!
It seems that both US and UK can look forward to a series of oscillating regimes, as neither main party has a grip on what needs to done to address the inequality that is tearing our countries apart.
[…] is, of course, the corollary of the argument that I posted this morning that Trump himself will have a nightmare 2025 trying to deliver the policies he has promised, given […]
My worry is based on your observations – it is when they come against something that is not possible, and then they do something else along populist lines which offers a way out – usually at the cost to some other weaker part of society.
I think that we are in for a period of lunacy.
Will Trumps promotion of Bitcoin and undermining of the Fed mean the dollar might loose its place as the primary reserve currency?
Yes, possibly
Bit, remember that depends on the choice of others, not the USA
Well said – and when one factors in the chaos that Trump and his minions are likely to cause in the Federal civil service, your argument is all the stronger. A relatively inexperienced executive can govern well with an excellent civil service; otherwise . . .
We keep saying ‘Trump’ but I wonder whether he will live long enough, or whether his mental frailty will be hidden long-enough. We’re actually, I suspect, talking about Vance, Musk etc who are pupeteering Trump. Same effects, sure. And maybe Trump will last long enough to take the blame if (I’d agree that it’s most likely ‘when’) it goes south (-and maybe Trump as scapegoat is one scenario plan?).
Trump’s exit will, of course, throw a whole other set of chaos into the mix.
[…] many people paid much attention to the video and related transcript that I posted to this blog yesterday, in which I suggested that 2025 might not be such a good year […]
Richard,
I thought you made a superb point here in your critique of Trump – in apolitical/non-party bias terms, I think this is spot on:
“We’ve already seen such a thing happen here in the UK. Labour won the general election in early July and are now behind the Tories in the polls. Now, polls, we know, aren’t necessarily the whole truth, but the point is, there is no doubt that Labour’s popularity has collapsed since the time that it won a significant majority in the House of Commons. And it’s collapsed because it doesn’t know how to deliver.”
Before I get a cascade of angry comments (…) – I feel this applies to many current governments and their inability to deliver from both sides of the political spectrum. In the UK we seem to veer from one set of incompetent Administrations to another – with one common theme – the inability to deliver (let alone set sensible, long-term economic policy).
A Trump win – and we are still waiting for the final House results to come in – should indeed be met with a level of trepidation. Your Mid-Terms warning is well-directed, I feel. I agree that he will likely take control of Congress (both Senate and House).
From a sanctions perspective, Iran is bound to be targeted – along with those third country actors in the Middle East, Asia, Turkey, EU etc facilitating Iran trade who will undoubtedly come under US secondary sanctions pressure. An easing of pressure on Russia would be predictable – but many are not aware that Congress has anti-Russian sanctions already baked in to the US sanctions program – so however much diplomacy might change – there is still an anti-Russian policy approach State-side.
You are right to focus on tariffs – quite probably US Dollar supportive, but there are obvious pitfalls. The sheer size of US-China trade makes me less concerned for China – but clearly tariffs under Trump will be a factor.
The Eurozone concerns me greatly – many of us despair at the single currency construct absent fiscal union – and further tariff-laden attacks on the already (relatively) stagnant EU set of economies – particularly the largest – will not be welcome. Germany, France and Italy look like bearing the brunt of such US protectionist actions down the line.
I fear very much for the much-derided (by Left and Right) Starmer government. Allying with France and the wider EU on foreign policy will not endear Starmer to the incoming White House. That said, there may be an attempt from the White House to “get Brexit done” via the back door and lighter UK tariffs. Security and foreign policy (particularly sanctions) should be pretty aligned from a US/UK perspective – one wonders how the Chagos Islands initiative will fare now that the Mauritius government suffered a huge defeat on Sunday – particularly if the US under Trump deem the Chagos too much of a strategic interest to hand over to Mauritius. Under Trump, Nigel Farage hovers – ready to extract political capital at every opportunity… – he is clearly upset with both Labour and the Tories over Brexit.
A comment from me on the tax front. (I have written on and researched this area in some depth and find your erudite approach to this complex area admirable – but do not necessarily concur with all of your conclusions. Respect, nonetheless…!) I don’t see the OECD’s tax harmonisation plans being at all helped by a Trump initiative to cut tax with the aim of creating a more “competitive” US landscape (a moot point depending on your point of view of tax policy). Proper tax reform needs to be backed by proper, visionary political and economic decision-making and that, I feel, is in grave danger of imploding. Does anyone trust politicians to act responsibly with voters’ tax revenues these days? Glass half full, I know, but…
We need credible governments to drive long-term policy to the benefit of future generations. In the absence of decent policy-makers, we are always going to be prone to short-termism which is bound to end up in jurisdictions around the world citing “competitiveness” as a reason for offering effective, tax-friendly opt-outs for those seeking better overall “returns on investment”. I expect a Trump Administration to lead to a fracturing of any hard-won global consensus on tax harmonisation.
My other bugbear from an EU/OECD perspective – all the EU27 exemptions and allowances in the tax regimes (French corporation tax is a classic example – single figures is easily achievable when allowances are factored in – official rate: 25%…). The Singapore model has been often derided when at its heart was (…) the notion of providing for all citizens. A sort of hybrid laissez-faire and sociallly-focused model. Critics today in Singapore despair at the unaffordability of local housing. With corruption a huge issue.
Yet again, the long-term industrial vision seems to be lacking – proper investment in infrastructure etc – although I have seen some data which backs up the view from US voters that ordinary workers felt their dollars went further under Trump than Biden. With inflation cited by US voters as a key issue under Biden.
An excellent article in the Guardian on the reasons Harris lost/Trump won by Oliver Hall (“I spent hours trying to persuade US voters to choose Harris not Trump. I know why she lost”, 9 Nov 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/09/us-voters-kamala-harris-donald-trump-republican) mentions some of the above. I wonder whether the Democrats need to reset using a proper primary campaign and move on from their succession process which seems to give little scope (Obama excepted, of course…) for newcomers or young blood to step into the fray. There was, I gather, very much the sense amongst US voters that it was not widely understood what “Not Trump 2.0” Harris stood for.
The fact that Harris was attacked for being too tough on law & order, yet too weak on law & order (as cited in the same Guardian article) – suggests that the binary output of social media channels and political campaigning seriously needs to be addressed. At a time of such information overload – one would hope for a level of consensus, rather than divisive, petty point-scoring.
As often seems to be the case in recent major elections – Caveat emptor…
Thanks
Much to agree with
I doubt very much whether trump gives a damn about ‘keeping his promises’, nor whether the US & rest of the world burns down around his ears, now that he’s achieved the main goal of his candidacy – staying out of prison. He’s the most powerful man in the world surrounded by yes-men who (pretend to, at least) adore him. He’s also a pathological narcissist with any unlimited capacity for self-deception. In his own mind he is supremely intelligent, omnipotent & never fails; anything that goes undeniably wrong will be someone else’s fault. He’s always been like this. He certainly won’t change now.