I have already discussed the end of what we have thought to be normal this morning.
And I have discussed why on occasion protest is vital, in this case in the context of Black Lives Matter.
Then I had this tweet drawn to my attention, for the editor of The Lancet, the premier medical journal in the UK:
I don’t understand the passivity of my fellow countrymen and countrywomen. Why are you not more angry? Why are you allowing this government to orchestrate the deaths of your citizens, your families, your neighbours? This is a mass delusion. Resist. Resist. Rebel.
— richard horton (@richardhorton1) June 9, 2020
The evidence of the Black Lives Matters protests suggests that people in this country are not passive. However, they are not as yet angry about coronavirus.
I admit that I share Richard Horton surprise on this issue. Why is it that despite overwhelming evidence that the management of this crisis in the UK has been much worse than in other countries we do not seem to be angry about that? There is no doubt that we care about everyone that has been lost, and yet we do not seem inclined to blame the government for so many unnecessary premature deaths. That baffles me and it clearly baffles Richard Horton. However, I think we have simply not yet reached the point where this anger will become obvious.
The fact is that we have faced a health crisis, and it has been possible for the government to pretend that this has been a universal problem, faced by all countries around the world. And, of course, it is true that almost every country in the world has had to tackle the coronavirus crisis. This has been an incredibly convenient cover for the government: they have been able to say 'it's not our fault, guv', and to an extraordinary degree people have accepted that. This is why I think that there has been very little anger to date.
However, I also think that is going to change. It is only geeks and nerds have noticed comparative death rates, and if you have, take it as a compliment. Most people will note the absolute numbers, and quite candidly not worry about what is happening elsewhere. Far too many are, instead, sheltering (whether necessarily or not) at home, locked down in fear - which is one reason why so few children have returned to school. It is their belief that by doing so they can manage the consequences of this crisis, and for some that is undoubtedly true.
That said though, some deeply uncomfortable truths are about to become apparent. Some countries are, for example, sending their children back to school without difficulty. And that means economic as well as social lockdown can end vastly quicker in those countries than we can manage, because whilst children are off school, our economy remains paralysed.
And in other ways many countries are very clearly managing this crisis better than England, in particular, is. So, for example, their deaths are under control. Their health services, which have had less of a battering than ours has, are as a result in better shape than the NHS is. And they are much closer to coming out of economic lockdown than we are.
But, most importantly of all, when many other countries come out of lockdown they will do so vastly more successfully than we will because their risks from doing so will be much lower than ours will be. That is because the chance of getting coronavirus in those countries will be lower so that not only will they be able to permit greater social contact, but their populations will also believe that they can accept this risk, which it is very clear that people in the UK do not present. And as a result their recovery rates will be much higher than ours, in economic terms.
What coronavirus has done is, because of this government's mismanagement (which will be massively compounded by Brexit), to put us at a massive competitive disadvantage to many of those countries that we are used to comparing ourselves to. Only the US is in as bad a state as we are. And when people realise that the economies of other countries are not collapsing in the ways that ours will be, and that whilst those other countries will be suffering stress their unemployment rates might be nothing like those we will have to endure, then the anger will really grow.
There will be no ready solution, except that a lot of people will die until we have herd immunity - which is what our government always aimed for in the most inappropriate way possible - but the disparity will be so glaring that nothing will then hold back the frustration. Things are going to be bad everywhere, but they are going to be much worse here. And that is what will trigger the rebellion Richard Horton is surprised is n0t already happening.
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[…] I suggested earlier today, the UK government's management of this crisis is going to impose cost that is going to put us at a […]
Can you link to the statistics that analyse the Cornovirus deaths, adjusted for:
– exposure to different COVID-19 mututions (I understand there are multiple strains some of which are more dangerous than others)
– the ethnicity of the population (I understand that BAME indivudals are more vulnerable)
– population density (I understand that densely populated cities are more vulnerable to the spread of the disease)
– age distribution (I understand that old people are far more vulnerable)
– obesity (I understand that overweigh people are more vulnerable)
– pre-conditions (I understand that people with certain existing conditions are much more vulnerable)
Perhaps then we can have a credible discussion about the effectiveness (or otherwise) of different government’s approaches to COVID?
Dr Nigel Blanchford (ENT)
No
Can you?
And your understanding seems remarkably weak for someone in your position
I also very much doubt a real doctor would use language in the way you do
I also note I can find no ENT doctor with your name
To say that I doubt that this is in any way an honest enquiry might be kind to you
There is only 1 “strain” of coronavirus.
John Burn-Murdoch and Chris Giles have the evidence you need to confirm the criminal negligence of this Govt.
If people weren’t unhappy about the Lancet publishing the PACE trials and refusing to withdraw them, https://me-pedia.org/wiki/Open_letter_to_the_Lancet more about the PACE trials themselves here https://me-pedia.org/wiki/PACE_trial (these were described by some as the flagship for the biopyschosocial model which the so called assessments of disabled and sick benefit claimants is based around) and using results based on them to deny sick and disabled people life support, then I don’t know why Horton would think they should be upset now.
I got my PIP in the end, while we’re on the general subject. I scored zero across the board at my (biopsychosocial) assessment, despite offering a selection from over twenty years worth of supporting medical evidence. I applied for a mandatory reconsideration which simply confirmed the original decision, and then a paper tribunal which was adjourned for further evidence and because the tribunal wanted to see me in person. In the event, after I gave permission for my GP to turn over any and everything they had on me in recent months, (including such delights as botox injections in my left eye and Tramadols now on repeat scrip) I received a call at home from a decision maker. A nice woman. A bit bewildered, I gathered, by what she was seeing from assessors and not just with me and mine. We had a chat, and I was awarded Enhanced for both categories. That’s the highest award you can get that I’m aware of. Being a pensioner this shouldn’t be reviewed for the next decade too. So, null punkte then, at the absurd and expensive jobs for the boys assessments, designed I suspect to make social security worthless in order to herd us into the arms of the American insurance companies… but when push comes to shove I’m discreetly granted enhanced in order to avoid the government the embarrassment of another negative tribunal result. Many have had the same or similar experiences. Many have simply died while waiting for their tribunals. Anyhoo… it’s not unfeasible to suggest none of this would be happening if the PACE trials, felt by many to be about as legit as a nine-bob note, had been kicked into touch when they should have been, much less effectively legitimised by publication in the Lancet. If Horton wonders what’s going on in the world, maybe he should look in the mirror to find out.
I wrote to our MP today expressing concern about the forthcoming US trade deal. I believe her to be a moderate, but first and foremost she has never voted against any government motion, nor spoken out on anything remotely controversial.
I have pointed out that locally the trade deal will impact the rural economy with farming coming out badly and health being an issue that chimes with her constituents.
Like you I agree that any protest will come far too late; after these things are done and dusted. BUT, politicians should be concerned that even the reserved Brit is likely to support what may become large protests on the streets.
We can foresee much youth unemployment which will blight generations, deepening health inequality and all of the social ills that we thought were behind us (I appreciate they aren’t but the perception is that they are), coming into sharp focus.
We have been aghast at e.g. Republicans in US failing to make any kind of stand against Trump, despite knowing where it would end and yet we see the same thing here. MPs too timid to call out the current PM and his round table of incompetents.
When will we learn?
As the statistical evidence of the government’s incompetence increases almost on a daily basis, I’m pretty sure there will be a corresponding increase in public awareness and dissatisfaction. But it’s taking longer to manifest itself than one would logically anticipate. The main reason is quite simply the relentless, unabashed propaganda. Also, at times of existential crisis, populations tend to give governments the benefit of the doubt and are reluctant to be seen to rock the boat.
Against this, I think it’s pertinent that much of the overt criticism is coming from the medical profession. A retired senior medical officer I know recently told me: “I am feeling very angry with the arrogance of the Tories …. I despair about the way we have messed up the whole test, trace and quarantine process by doing it all too late.”
While my centre-right leaning acquaintances (I have a few!) are in state of denial when confronted with facts. Taking a lead from ministerial briefings, they just don’t reply, putting their head in the sand and coming out with inane comments like: “Would Corbyn have done any better?”
However, as you suggest, the true scale of the government’s criminal ineptitude will come to light – and thus permeate into wider public consciousness – when the situation can be objectively measured against how the rest of Europe and other major economies (viz. South Korea) are more effectively rebuilding their economies. I’d say this ‘awakening’ will start to kick in next year.
Over the course of the next 4.5 years one can expect a continuous flow of Trump-style dissembling hogwash emanating from Downing Street (i.e. Cummings). While it will satisfy core Tory supporters, I suspect it will generate considerable anger among not only the precariat experiencing increased economic hardship, but also a big chunk of the bourgeoisie who will no longer be prepared to defend the indefensible.
Hopefully the BLM rebellion will inject renewed hope and energy into other campaigns such as XR, Occupy, The People’s Assembly, et al. Large-scale peaceful public demos are an essential tactic for initiating & accelerating radical reform. The times they are a changin’.
Watch this space!
I hope you’re right
I have just finished ready Sarah Kendzior’s ‘Hiding in Plain Sight: The Invention of Donald Trump & the Erosion of America’ (April 2020) and the America she describes there looks like a future England to me.
Kendzior’s book is an angry one – she speaks of the rich hoovering up all the opportunities from everyone else in the country including her own family and describes how all of this came to be. Part of this seems to be the Democratic party’s own fault for not truly offering something different to the American voter.
What stands out for me is how many times the Trump administration has publicly lied about what it going on and how many times Trump has headed off a threat and got away with it. Something that Johnson seems to be emulating.
But what you can see is how communities like her own in St Louis (in America’s ‘middle’) have just had the heart ripped out of them economically and how (along with a pauperizing welfare system) it helps a create hopelessness and disengagement among the population. How many places in the UK look and feel like St Louis? I’d say quite a few.
England – the UK even – is not as big as the States so the dynamics of political mobilization might be different but you can do without having an ineffective and divided political opposition for a start.
Secondly, the British people seem to have had their Vietnam moment as America did and still suffers from in the form of BREXIT. How many people believe that Covid has been managed badly because of lies about immigrant pressure on the NHS and giving the EU our cash? More than any of us comfortably might want to admit. The damage has already been done.
So, I have no idea how the British public will react to this Government. I know people who are really angry but how much of it will be anger directed to the right things?
Which means that we need to put the microscope on HM Opposition as we come out of this crisis. Can Labour (and others, together) offer a focus point to the angry masses? It has to be with HM Opposition because the other options are – what? – shoot and assassinate Johnson and his fellow murderers and criminals in the name of self defence? Assemble with pitchforks outside parliament? They’re hardly democratic are they?
I tell you, the Labour party had better be ready to lead coming out of this – they really will – or it will be another missed opportunity. They need to crystallize the pain and anger and co-opt it into a democratic force for change.
The question is, will they man up and do it or will they buckle?
Labour are now part of the problem. They must be finished off if there is to be real opposition to this Govt.
So what replaces it?
Sean – we have to give Labour a chance. What else is there – as Richard suggests?
The Lib-Dems? Good lord!
But the stakes are high. And I am prepared to be disappointed.
We may not have to wait too long for that revolt.
The perfect storm may come in a few months, with the December Bexit deadline, if no deal is ‘achieved’, as some hope.
If a deal is signed, it may take longer for people to realise they’ve been cheated.
Scared people don’t take to the streets, they choose denial instead if allowed, and believe reassuring lies.
Most of the British media are very careful not to show the truth of what is happening in Italy, Spain, France and Portugal, the usual destinations of many holiday makers.
Those countries have been hard hit by the first wave of the virus (bar Portugal which went into lockdown early) but are now enjoying time out, with good testing/tracing/isolation systems in place, ready for potential clusters.
They know they’re not out of the woods. They’re also scared of a second wave if people relax too much.
Their economies have been shielded by government efforts but will take a huge hit too, looking at OECD predictions. They will have the extra security of some EU emergency funding in the future though.
The biggest difference is they are starting to work again, and have TTI systems working to avoid another total lockdown, they hope.
The other difference is that they have relatively competent governments, even Italy’s is in better shape than the UK’s. Probably for the fist time ever!
No doubt people will suffer unemployment and hardship there too, but they know their governments were at least working to avoid the worst, and are collaborating at EU level to mitigate the crisis.
There has been mature information every step of the crisis, either through government briefings, or through the media when governments were trying to cover up the PPE crisis which occurred everywhere.
During March and April, I watched daily briefings on French TV and the BBC. The contrast was shocking.
On one side, clear, detailed, raw information from scientists and frontline medical staff involved, giving the shocking truth, challenging government decisions in total freedom and very publicly.
Health professionals’ anger expressed for all to see, and mistakes were exposed, then corrected for fear of rebellion from hospital staff and the general public. Those very public outbursts probably saved many lives.
On the other, lies and half-truths, bluster and bluff. Pathetic incompetence, pathetic infantilisation of the British public.
The UK government hasn’t been trying to achieve anything else than herd immunity.
The Swedish government was doing the same, but officially so, and eventually apologised for allowing it to kill people unnecessarily, once the shocking contrast with neighbouring Norway and Denmark could no longer be hidden.
Richard Horton’s outburst echoes the feelings of all of us able to see outside the English bubble.
Those of us who don’t live in England can see how badly managed things are there, how much daily lying goes on in the press, in the daily briefings.
A farcical show of tin-pot dictatorship proportions.
I’m not that surprised people haven’t rebelled yet, unfortunately.
Denial is still the strongest for now, in Brexitania.
Thanks Marie
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