I am aware that I am not the most optimistic of economic forecasters at present. But I am not alone. As the FT has just reported, referring to work from the OECD out today:
While all advanced economies have been hit by the pandemic, there are likely to be substantial differences in performance depending on how well nations perform in dealing with the virus, according to the OECD.
South Korea, which has implemented effective testing, tracking and isolating of coronavirus cases, is expected to contract by only 1.2 per cent in 2020, followed by growth of 3.1 per cent next year.
By contrast the UK will suffer the largest contraction this year, with economic output falling 11.5 per cent followed by a 9 per cent rise in 2021, the OECD said.
I think the forecast rise very optimistic.
And remember that a 9 per cent rise is based on an economy that was only 88.5% of what it might have been: the two figures can't be directly compared as a result
As I suggested earlier today, the UK government's management of this crisis is going to impose cost that is going to put us at a real comparative disadvantage in this country, and that is before Brexit without a deal, which is almost inevitable.
The consequences are deeply uncomfortable.