The English election result dominates the news agenda, at least in that country this morning. But before considering it in more detail there are two sets of results to note.
The first is in Scotland. The SNP did not get the 55 seats the exit poll predicted, but that always seemed optimistic. But it has got 48. That is a massive Scottish majority. There are three thoughts that follow on this.
The first is that Nicola Sturgeon is bound to call for an independence referendum.
The second is that Scotland did vote Remain.
The third is that for these two reasons, and because for some time to come the SNP might well provide the most united opposition Johnson faces in parliament, I think he might concede to the demand for that referendum. As an English populist he knows his electoral base will be happy to see Scotland go. And he will believe it will shore up his power for it to be gone. I am not saying there will not be a fight. But Johnson is a pragmatist without red lines. I expect him to concede.
The second fascinating result was in Northern Ireland. It was a bad night, overall, for Sinn Fein with its vote down heavily. It was a worse night for the DUP, who paid a high price for supporting the Tories and then not delivering. It was a good night for the democratic process with gains for the SDLP and Alliance Party. The clear indication that Northern Ireland is normalising its politics is very welcome even if the process has some way to go.
What both votes imply is that the Union can no longer be taken for granted. Indeed, its days look numbered. Amid signs that some parts of the UK very clearly see benefits to continuing EU membership (which does support the thesis that this was a Brexit dominated election) some parts of it are clearly showing signs that their union with Brussels is more important than their union with London. And who can blame them?
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Correct, Richard, for this result of an election, in which Nicola made Scotland’s right to choose its future when and as it wishes, THE explicit focus of our campaign is the biggest cast-iron mandate anyone could ever have. The Tories also made resisting this – their ONLY campaign proposal. Nothing esle – nil. The result? We held 59% of Scottish seats and we now hold 81%. The Union is over. However, long or slippery its obsequies, all that remains is to see it finally buried – and it will be. You are also correct that Borisovitch has zero chance of making resistance to our independence into a popular political ’cause’ in southern Britain. They think we are subsidised and would love to lose us – and that will fit us, just fine. “If Dougie was here, he would tell you himself,” as Para Handy would surely have observed.
Indeed, the Tories tried to make this an independence scare election and failed miserably. Even though there were large amounts of pamphleting and unsolicited mail from Ruth Davidson, they obviously had a lot more money than the other Scottish parties bolstered by CCHQ funds. But this didn’t work except for in the borders and with the north east fisher folk, traditional Tory strongholds, it was always about Brexit from a Scottish perspective (not get it done) and getting Johnson out. I also believe that tactical voting may have been much more effective in Scotland as there were so many more narrow majorities that were vulnerable for overturning. Certainly I and others I know lent our vote to the SNP to get the Tories out. And the SNP were the only real alternatives in nearly all of these constituencies. I know it doesn’t explain the Labour losses which surprised me to some extent, I thought that on the whole their manifesto was very good. And I’m not sure their loss was a good thing for Scotland and certainly not the U.K. A black fug has descended on our household. Where do we go from here?
Labour losses, in Scotland, were inevitable given their absolute lack of talent at MP level and, particularly, the Scottish “leadership”. There is no doubt that a large proportion of the Scottish electorate would never vote Tory under any circumstances, and that, given the situation in England, meant the SNP were seen as the real alternative.
My wife works in a hospital outpatient department and has been a supporter of indy since reading the McCrone report in the run-up to the indy ref. Although we’ve had SNP MP since 2012 this is very much a traditional Labour area but this morning many of the outpatients who had always been Labour voters were expressing their disgust at a Johnson win and openly stating that they voted SNP as the preferable option.
Looking a constituency votes it’s clear that, once again, the LibDems, in Scotland anyway, have been Tory enablers once again. In the constituencies along the border they increased their vote share and ensured 3 of the most worthless Tories retained their seats – a similar story unfolded in NE Scotland. Alternatively, it may have been Tories who couldn’t stomach what has become of the Tories in England. The constituency vote shifts also confirm the impression given to my wife – Labour vote shifted to SNP.
Do I not recall talk recently of trainloads of Westminster bureaucrats being shipped off to Holyrood? I assume this was as their loyalty will be to Westminster and not North of the Border. I remember it’s a saying of Cummings that the UK couldn’t Brexit because the Civil Service wouldn’t allow it. I’m wondering if he isn’t setting up similar obstacles to an indie Scotland as without the co-operation of its civil service, one which apparently works for Westminster and so can’t be fired by the Scots, quitting the UK won’t happen. I’m assuming they’ve been sent there specifically to obstruct Scotland’s leaving the Union.
Bill, you’ve put your finger on a very real problem. Never mind the additional civil servants being shipped off to Scotland (presumably to man the UK Gov’t in Scotland hubs being set up by whatever plonker the Tories can find to act as Secretary of State), the Civil Service in Scotland, which works closely with Holyrood Ministers, is not a Scottish Civil Service: it is the Scottish branch of the UK Civil Service and as such it is answerable to Whitehall and therefore ultimately to the UK Gov’t Executive policies.
Given the opposition of the British Establishment to the notion of Scottish Independence, I think it inconceivable that the SNP and the wider Indy movement have not been penetrated by agencies of the British state (like the Civil Service, GCHQ, 77th Brigade, MI5, MI6 etc). How else can the recent extraordinary plea on Wings Over Scotland to vote against the SNP in the General Election be explained? Has Stu Campbell been turned and by whom?
The threat of penetration probably explains the reticence of the inner circle of the SNP to talk publicly about Indy strategy. For this they’ve suffered criticism from Indy rank-and-filers who are impatient to maintain momentum and mistake the lack of frequent public announcements for stasis. I’d rather have a leader who keeps her powder dry on critical strategies than her predecessor’s approach, which couldn’t resist the opportunity of a headline, but in the process gave advance notice of strategy and enabled his opponents to plan their attacks (cf Salmond’s confused position on currency in 2014).
There were undoubtedly dirty tricks at play in 2014 and I fully expect these to be amplified in any future Indy ref, so the role of the Civil Service as a conduit for Intelligence cannot be ignored. The Scotland Act gives the UK Gov’t ultimate control over Holyrood, so the SNP will have to act cannily in pursuing its aims while seeking to be seen to comply with legal conditions which give all the aces to the UK Gov’t.
What was Stu’s logic?
“How else can the recent extraordinary plea on Wings Over Scotland to vote against the SNP in the General Election be explained?”
This is not true, despite the recent articles that were critical of the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon in particular, he specifically said that you should vote for the SNP in this election.