I do not know who produced this. But they got it absolutely right.
Hat tip to Andrew Simms
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Inspirational, thanks.
Here is a couple of sites on twitter.
WHICH SAYS THE POLLS ARE WAY OUT
One post by Dr Moderate
@centrist_phone
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203719501881188354
He says all the polls are wrong because they overestimate the leave voter and demographics ie less leave voters around due to death i presume. There other factors he says and goes into a very detail analysis. It virtually is similar to one your poster on this site.
Aaron Bastani
@AaronBastani
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1203834985851097088
He is commentating on the survation national poll and says its way off base. Why he looks at their london poll data and from what i can understand. The poll jumps 31% to the tories since 2017. He and others are saying this is rubbish and bad data. I am no statistician so i may be wrong on it.
“New poll from Survation has Labour 4% behind Tories in *London* on 36%.
They got 61% there in *2015* and 67% in 2017. Even in 2010 (!) they finished 14% ahead of Tories in capital.
Toilet paper. #BoomerAnalytica”
Suravation had lab on 31 and the tories on 46.
Also another one by Aarron he concludes because of the above error due to bad data. He thinks there will be a hung parliament.
“I think a hung parliament is as likely as a big Tory majority now – as I’ll explain in IGH newsletter tomorrow. It’s all about a tiny margin in 80 seats. Why can’t journalists/ex-journalists grasp basic data analysis tho? It’s a 1000 sample with mad findings locally. Puzzling!”.
Another poster says something similar ie the polls are way off base. I think they may be herding butr what do i know.
“Only complete idiots believe Boris Johnson
@CorbynHope
·1h
Replying to
@AaronBastani
CORRECTION
Polling average
Con +10%
Turnout modelled to GE 2017 across all polls
-1.6%
EU Ref demographic changes
-2.4%
Re-weighting 2017 DNV’s/New voters:
-3.16%
Actual Con lead: 2.84%
THE REAL END”
What do you think of these posts and their conclusions? i think may be Arron has a point but not sure how it translates to the national scene. The other two who say all the polls are wrong because they ignore demographics, overestimate leavers, underestimate the young, the new voter etc.
I thought at first Aarron was talking rubbish and was just reaching. I was bit mad at him because i thought he was ignoring the new survation poll. I realised he was not because he went into their data set for the poll. The other two echo some one here and a article written by an academic who also said yougov were over estimating the leavers in their online polls.
If the tories get in power i will be homeless as i am unemployable. I have not worked for a long time due to ill health. i have mental health problems and been declared unfit to work. I have had two DWP health work assessment exams and they are nasty as hell. They tried to send me to a third one last year but my doctor stopped them. I have no guarantee of it happening again as the supersurgery wants me to see any doctor they give me. They hated the fact i wanted to see one particular doctor and worked hard to stop me. I refused citing the human rights act so they backed down
Having to battle the DWP and massive supersurgies is not good me or anyone else. You see a person with mental health problems is an issue for most people especially if that person cannot able to hold a job down. I am regard as scum by society and my children. They are middle class now and most are going or will ge going to university. One is doing an architecture degree, which is good, and another wants to be a nurse. I do not know if that is the case as i have not seen them for years. So i can expect no help from my family.
The political climate is making people in my family adopt a dog eat dog attitude and you are on your own.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z01CyZoBLxE
I find the polls very hard to believe
I am suspecting bias
I am hoping it backfires
I hope your right, indeed i suspect your right. People have been saying the tories have increase their the purchase of advertisement on social media by fourfold. This is mainly on facebook et al.
So if they are comfortable and confident with polls why go to hell in the areas the adverts are aimed? I believe it is london, mainly in the marginals. This of course could be they are just playing safe and want to ensure the GE is in the bag and so not mind splashing the cash to ensure it. Of course it could be they know Corbyn and Labour are out performing them on facebook and other social media sites. They may believe this is why labour has grown in the polls and so want to combat it.
With regards to the latest survation national poll. They put labour on 31 and tories on 46, this the one Aaron Bastani has issues with. One commentator on twitter said he has being doing phone polling for suravation over the last few weeks and he believes they are contacting only older people mainly. That is what he said he was doing,of course again he could be wrong, or lying or who knows on the internet. He is a socialist and so i am aware of potential bias. Still i find his points interesting and it does seem to confirm what other pollsters are doing.
The crux of their arguments is, it is impossible for london to lose 31% of the vote over 2 year period. As it takes time for people to move on. Is that possible and or not correct?
https://twitter.com/notifications
Socialist_9141
@1984Marxist
·
@AaronBastani
“I know. But I have been a telephone pollster at Survation these last few weeks. So I have first hand experience”
Socialist_9141
@1984Marxist
@AaronBastani
“Simple. The sample is heavily weighted towards over-55s.”
As I understand it, mobile phones are not ‘localised’ and much of the polling is. Therefore, landlines must be used. I (70) have a landline but neither of my sons (33 & 40) do. That suggests a clear age bias to me, as reflected in several of the above comments, and therefore very likely a skewed (maybe extremely skewed) result. Still, never mind aye, it’s all grist to the Tory mill.
The final week! I’ll start with some cheery bbc bias over the weekend
‘‘A newspaper editor’s frank account of Jeremy Corbyn’s ‘rock star’ popularity ‘wherever he turns up’ and his ‘prime ministerial’ status astonishingly made it into the 10.30pm newspaper review. By the 11.30pm review, the article in question was not discussed at all’
https://skwawkbox.org/2019/12/09/video-truth-about-corbyns-popularity-public-love-him-hes-pm-material-how-the-hell-did-it-get-onto-bbc-an-hour-later-it-didnt/
Yes — lets be digging up that spaffing rose garden Cameron/Clegg dogging spot and transfer Corbyns allotment there — he needs to be near the office and keep an eye on the weeds.
———
But the minions are breaking ranks and finally telling the truth on Johnsons great deal making powers
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler
————
Next the NHS,
CNN actually tell it like it is, BigPharma is slavering not only because of UK spend but the WHOLE worlds, if they get their way here with A Trump Trade deal:
‘The United States has publicly declared that it would demand not only that its companies have “full market access” to the United Kingdom, but also that “government regulatory reimbursement regimes are transparent.” That would likely mean a provision allowing US drug companies to have a greater say in how the United Kingdom values medicines for the NHS, similar to one included in the US trade deal with South Korea last year.’
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/06/business/nhs-trump-trade-drugs-analysis-intl-ge19/index.html
———
As for why the polls are fixed to overstate/fabricate a tory lead?
I will quote an academic study again.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w23490
In short it is to LOWER turnout.
& this study explains the how of the polls
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/10/29/long-read-are-opinion-polls-pro-leave-biased/
Short answer yes they are biased towards Leave.
Either way there is only ONE poll that counts and it is on Thursday.
Vote. Make sure everyone you know votes.
I hope that cheers up Darren a little!
Thanks…