Some will have noticed that I took a day off yesterday. A day walking, talking, watching a film and relaxing has to be done occasionally.
What surprises me this morning is that so much of the media appears to be taking the election off as well. Andrew Rawnsley has already begun his post-election analysis of the Lib-Dems failed campaign. In much of the media it is settled fact that Corbyn is an anti-Semite, when many Jews (such as Michael Rosen) would argue otherwise. His campaign is, therefore, apparently over. And Johnson appears to get away with whatever he wants, most especially with the supine BBC, who I will suggest (in advance) have had one of the worst campaigns.
It's as if for all the hope of alternatives there is now only one issue left in this campaign as far as that media is concerned. That, of course, is Brexit. And it is as if it has been accepted that the very obvious Tory deal with Farage, which saw him shaft every single one of his declared supporters in pursuit of his own hope for a peerage, resolved all doubt on this issue: the assumption is that it is going to happen, irrespective of the fact that no one knows how, or with what consequence.
I have to say that I am not so sure that the election is a done deal as yet. I note the LibDem decline. I note too that it probably means tactical voting will be less relevant in a great many constituencies. That may be no bad thing.
I note too the hint that Tory appeal may have peaked. That is hardly surprising. It was at the limits of plausibility. As such a down turn was always likely. I think Johnson's continuing, quite literal, poor showing will encourage this trend.
I also sense Farage played his card too early, and now people realise that with pro-Brexit discussion virtually off the table there are other issues of concern and they are considering them. The NHS and, maybe, the environment are other obvious issues. And as a result I note the Labour vote is increasing and firming.
I will stick my neck out and suggest that this might continue to be the case. No one is going to love Corbyn a lot more over the next couple of weeks. But they may love Johnson a lot less. Swinson is out of the race - even LibDem members tell me that. And for the record, Ed Davey would be worse. This results in a situation where Labour can win more seats now. I suspect a much closer result than many suggest likely.
The media may be bored by this campaign. But quietly I think small swings with big implications may be happening. I have to hope so.
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Buy me a coffee!
So often I turn to your posting and find you reflecting the issues that have taken my attention in the previous hours. And so it is today. I have plenty of time on my hands at the moment having been admitted to Gloucester Royal Hospiral last Tuesday with a condition that I’d never heard of but is likely to be of importance in my remaining years. Atrial Fibrillation. I think it’s more or less under control but in my time here -my first in hospital for 71 years since a tonsillectomy – I can fully appreciate the NHS and the dedication of the entire crew. I could fill an encyclopaedia but I’m sure everyone who’s ever needed it could do the same. This must never be a marketable enterprise. The staff? If they are sent home … the mind boggles. DunGroanin cheered me up last week. We need proof this week that some of his conjectures have substance.
Good luck Rod
I know what it is
And it’s manageable
So I hope all goes well
Bojo certainly lost it on the Andrew Marr Show today when he tried to palm off the cause of the London Bridge attacks onto 2008 Labour legislation on dealing with terrorist offenders when, if this is the case, the Tories have had 9 and a half years to put things right and they did nothing.The public can see through this senseless huffing and puffing on every challenge that is put to him.
We look forward to what Andrew Neal’s has to offer.
It’s not the case. See the Secret Barrister’s blog.
Richard
Glad you had a good day off yesterday. Hope you recharged your batteries.
I’m on the allotment today picking veg and weeding. You get a different perspective on life doing such things.
Best wishes
It was good…..
Great ‘steadying of the nerves’ post Richard – thanx.
Thanks too
Off for a coffee to do another one soon….
Prof, it is as i have been banging on forever re the Brexit party (just like the kippers before them) their max 5 odd million (max) countrywide voters evaporate at general elections largely back to their traditional party line.
As for this election the fact of 4 million new registrations compared to 2 million in 2017 (which reduced the overall tory lead to 800k) surely is a game over scenario?
BUT..BUT there are a couple of flies in the soup…
I won’t say any more about postal votes.
This is the DIRTIEST election ever and it is getting worse.
During the last week a message has been circulated around a specific Indian Hindu community – very anti Corbyn; citing Kashmir. It is disturbing therefore that the ‘terrorist’ of London Bridge was almost immediately announced to be a Kashmiri muslim.
I will say that Johnsons own seat (with a precarious 5k majority) has a high number of that ethnic hindu community that message has been spread to.
It seems that the message attacks the Labour policies of nationalisation, public investment and raises fears of increased taxation and curbing private landlord profits.
It could have been written by Pritti Patel!
Yes this reference to the Kashmiri origin of the terrorist in the election “debate” is worrying. Also recent reports (Guardian I think) of Narendra Modi’s BJP extreme Hindu nationalist right-wing party is trying to influence the British election by urging Hindus to vote Tory.
DunGroanin says:
“During the last week a message has been circulated around a specific Indian Hindu community — very anti Corbyn; citing Kashmir. It is disturbing therefore that the ‘terrorist’ of London Bridge was almost immediately announced to be a Kashmiri muslim.”
Hmmmm…. a put up job eh? An easily manipulated, suggestible zealot ?
It’s quite plausible. We ‘normal’ people underestimate the ruthlessness of the powerful and would-be powerful in pursuit of their ambitions. We might think like this, (after a glass or two) but we wouldn’t do it. They would. And we know they do. Did they manufacture this event? Who knows? Who is looking for political links ? Not the Met officers who will be running the investigation.
Stupefyingly!!… I agree with you.
Indeed I would go so far as to say Labour may yet shade this election by whisker and then we will be left with the worst of both worlds ie a hung parliament and a Lib/Lab/ SNP conflation — sometimes called a pact.
Please stop commenting on antisemitism, Richard, unless you are going to actually do some research.
Rosen is on the far left, and hung around with the SWP for many years. The same is true for almost all of the (few) Jewish figures who defend Corbyn.
80% or more of Jews are terrified of Corbyn. If you want to write about the subject, it needs to be taken much more seriously.
I have done the real reading
I can’t find the evidence to syupport the claims made
I do not dispute the fears
But I question the motives of those stoking them
For the best commentary on this start here https://medium.com/@shaunjlawson/enough-is-enough-rachel-riley-gnasherjew-and-the-political-weaponisation-of-antisemitism-5251bb1adec5
And as for your comments on Rosen, very politely stop talking utter nonsense that only someone on the far right could promote, somewhat giving away your real motives
So you have done your research and have found no evidence.., so the chief rabbi and the vast majority of the Jewish community are making the whole thing up??
…Or of course you are a bigot and are as bab as the worst elements of the Labour movement.
I spent yesterday discussing this with a secular Jew
Like so many other Jews to whom it is easy to find reference, and I noted some, he assured me that he does not think the Chief Rabbi speaks for him and that he cannot see that there is any greater issue in Labour than other political parties or society at large
This is not to deny there is a problem: I have said there is. But there is no evidence it is disproportionate or in any way organised
But with respect, your language really does not help
Indeed, whilst I am seeking to be objective it would seem you are very definitely not, and isn’t the abusive tone you use the whole issue we should avoid?
Again you speak to one secular Jew to form the basis of an opinion which flys in the face of the chief rabbi..he represents the Jewish community for gods sake!!!..for once in your life accept your opinion is not correct.. or if you stand by it you are calling chief rabbi a liar and his comments are politically motivated!!! … the reality is he will have deliberated long and hard before making those comments and obviously felt the situation was so grave he needed to intervene..
By the way thank god you are not in public office as your comments would be seen as toxic and would cause a great deal of offence to many people.
With respect – thank heaven’s you are not in office.
Of course I did not based my views on one discussion.
I have read much, considered a lot of evidence and considered the claims. Those made against Labour reflect failings in society at large. But they show nothing exceptional about Labour. All the major parties, including the racist Tory party (which is a much bigger threat to all ethically and religiously identifiable communities), have at least as much an anti-Semitic problem as Labour as far as I can see. And for the record, I am a member of none and a critic of all. Bit you did not research that fact.
I regret to say it, but all you show is a remarkable willingness to throw insults. Please don’t call again, for precisely that reason.
No evidence of anti-semitism at all?
https://order-order.com/tag/anti-semitism/
None?
Really?
Oh come on…..that blog is not evidence of anything but vile bias
Mike Rossi,
That is an outrageous and desperate attack on Richard Murphy.
I should like to say some things in response that you deserve but instead will quote some words which could apply, from the underrated Tony Benn. Who was :
‘ a tireless promoter of a power-to-the-people ethic that placed its faith in the great mass of humanity rather than billionaires, media moguls and political powerbrokers.’
“What power have you got?”
“Where did you get it from?”
“In whose interests do you use it?”
“To whom are you accountable?”
“How do we get rid of you?”
“Only democracy gives us that right. That is why no one with power likes democracy,” he would continue. “And that is why every generation must struggle to win it and keep it–including you and me, here and now”
https://www.thenation.com/article/tony-benn-and-five-essential-questions-democracy/
Mike Rossi says:
“…an opinion which flys in the face of the chief rabbi..he represents the Jewish community for gods sake!!!.”
No he doesn’t.
No more so (well, perhaps slightly more so) than the Archbishop of Canterbury speaks for the UK ‘community’. You’re being played. Mike Rossi. You and millions of others who swallow the warped narrative presented by our mainstream media.
Bravo Richard. It will be to the eternal shame of respected commentators, such as Owen Jones, Ian Dunt, James O’Brien and Justin Welby that they were taken in by and sometimes amplified this horrible smear campaign, in contrast to the bravery of journalists such as Shaun Lawson, David Hearst, Michael Rosen and Jonathan Cook.
@ Jane Waters
In my own attempt to better understand this sensitive topic as objectively as possible (not easy!), particularly since I have had many close Jewish friends throughout my life, I have been researching the spectrum of opinion that exists outside our UK media bubble. In this spirit I share with you this conversation between the Canadian journalist Aaron Maté and his father Dr. Gabor Maté, a well-known specialist in ‘childhood development and trauma’ and a holocaust survivor – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TBBhPUwrCU.
It strikes me that the tone and content of the current debate here in the UK is atypical and to the detriment of a wider understanding. Of course this doesn’t directly address specific statements made by members of the Labour Party – or any other official organisation – but it has helped me better evaluate the position held by Corbyn over the decades – which would seem to be generally aligned with the views of Gabor Maté.
I’d be interested to have your reaction.
You and me both John D.
‘80% or more of Jews are terrified of Corbyn’. Why? What is this ‘existential threat’ business? Let’s unpick that a moment shall we?
The use of this phrase is very controversial – it implies a threat to existence (or life) but may mean something entirely different: https://grammarist.com/usage/existential/. Note to Jane Waters – do some research yourself. Seriously. Read about that phrase.
If indeed members of the Jewish community have taken this rather uncertain phrase ‘existential threat’ to heart concerning Labour (used I believe by certain publications in the Jewish community) then here are some areas anyone – including our esteemed Jewish neighbours and colleagues – might want to dip into based on past experience:
1) Has Labour produced or stated that they wish to produce laws that effectively reduce the status of or expunge Jews from British society? Laws that effectively deny them their rights as a defined group or as human beings, making them effectively non-persons in the eyes of the law?
2) Has Labour been buying up huge tracts of land for some reason and applying for planning permission for un-specified encampments dotted around the country?
3) Has Labour been practising mass murder techniques on the gay population, political opponents, the disabled and mentally ill in preparation for the Jewish community?
4) Has the Labour party been going around Europe and the U.S. asking how much these countries would charge for taking their Jewish community off their hands?
If the Jewish community – especially the 80% you speak of Jane – know their history, then they will know that the 4 points above were what the Nazi’s did that led up to the Holocaust. Fours steps to murder, hell and inhumanity.
I’m sorry Jane but I see no evidence of this from Labour. If such a thing did exist in any British political party, then Corbyn would be doing something about it, as would the Labour party and even I would march to stop it and politicians from other parties too.
In terms however, of hurting people and threatening their existence Jane, the Tory party since 2010 takes some beating. Their austerity programme has killed people from babies to the disabled and even maybe causally (not casually BTW) implicated in the tragic events at London Bridge because they have even cut money to services that are meant to protect us. Their Universal Credit system that makes desperate people wait for social security payments means that people resort to food banks, go hungry or means that desperate people sell themselves for sex for cash to make do. Loan sharks are having a great time. And the NHS has slowed right down because of a mixture of lack of cash and BREXIT denuding its staffing levels (another Tory triumph).
Jane – I know well that the Jews worldwide have suffered unacceptable and indescribable abuse and persecution over hundreds of years. But that is no excuse for an over-reaction. There is evidence of Tory cruelty all around for the Jewish community to see. There is none as far as I can see from the Labour party. Not even at the planning stage.
I’m sorry if dragging up the past seems crude. But the most recent pogram against the Jews in Germany in the 30’s and 40’s was crude and something we have accepted as fact and where denial of its existence is seen rightly seen as a wrong.
I therefore beg the Jewish community to apply the same level of facts and standards when weighing up at the voting booth to who really in British politics is the most ‘existential threat’ to us all.
Would that Jane, be possible? I hope so……….I hope so.
Jane Waters says:
“…80% or more of Jews are terrified of Corbyn….”
If that is true, which I doubt, because the figure is part of the spin (and many such published numbers are spurious at best) it rather confirms just how effectively this anti Semitism campaign has been waged against the Labour Party and against Corbyn in particular.
There are some very gullible people ‘out there’ and you appear to be one of them. Breathe deeply…count the breaths ……..in and out then engage brain and consider how you are being manipulated and why. (?)
This is not a UK spat. It’s global scale political manoeuvring. It’s called ‘Manufactured consent’. It’s very effective isn’t it? You seem to have swallowed it.
I doubt we’ve ever had a less racist party leader in the UK ever before.
It’s quite perverse that a lifelong anti-racism campaigner is being branded as a racist, meanwhile, his rival on the other side has published multiple racist and otherwise offensive comments in newspapers, whilst his party cosies up to actual anti-semitic regimes.
– He called black people “Picanninies with watermelon smiles”.
– He called Muslim women wearing Burqa’s “letterboxes”
– He’s referred to gay people as “tank-topped bum boys”
– He’s tarred working class men as “likely to be drunk, criminal, aimless, feckless and hopeless”
– He’s said the children of single mothers are “ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate”
– He suggested Obama may have had an “ancestral dislike of the British Empire” because he was “part-Kenyan.”
But it’s the anti-racism campaigning pacifist that we need to worry about!
[…] is an obvious follow in thought to my suggestion that this election is not over yet, posted this morning. And that is to speculate on what happens next. That does not mean I have given up on this […]
“Some will have noticed that I took a day off yesterday.”
I missed that. I was taking a day off too. 🙂
🙂
This election is far from over.
Lib Dems have done very well, again in creating their traditional fantasy of telling us what they would do with the reins of power, (Go Back to your constituencies and prepare for government…:-) ) but they have no chance of coming close to being in government except as a powerless adjunct to one of the main two parties. Jo Swinson is not even assured of holding her own seat. She certainly doesn’t deserve to.
The Tory Campaign is increasingly a one man band. Only Boris Johnson seems to have the necessary
insouciance to ignore the issues which concern the electorate and persistently avoid offering coherent answers when he does deign to be interviewed. Other protagonists are being met with howls of derision, then quietly withdrawn from the fray.
No, it’s not over yet. Far from it.
But I’m not betting a bent penny on the result.
I stand by my appeal to Britain’s Jewish community.
Holocaust denial is rightly unacceptable. So, measure Corbyn against the realities of that Holocaust that you rightly insist existed – not by any ‘imagined threat’.
Last night on Channel 4 News, the programme interviewed a bunch of supposedly Labour voting Brummies none of whom wanted to vote for Labour because they did not like Corbyn. It was very dispiriting – they had been turned against Corbyn.
In my view, those who see this election as a Left wing ‘final stand’ with the electorate need to calm down. If Labour loses it must not be seen as a defeat or rejection of the Left. That road will lead us to more lily-livered, half hearted tosh like The Third Way or even worse, a new thousand year hard right.
Be in no doubt, if Labour loses, it will be because of the work of The Right and its minions in the media, harrying, bullying and carrying out character assassinations of those proposing a better way as well as a traumatised and beaten down electorate who finally have been programmed by the Tories to accept their lot, shut up and lose their imagination for anything better. A society with all hope beaten out of it.