Jersey – heading for failure

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The problems for the Jersey economy just grow and grow — or rather shrink and shrink.

Data on Jersey’s income for 2009 has just been published. The summary says:

The main economic indicators which measure the value or size of the whole Jersey economy are GVA (Gross Value Added) and GNI (Gross National Income). The GVA and GNI 2009 report shows that:

  • Jersey’s economy, as measured by GVA, declined in real terms by -6%
  • this fall represents the largest annual decline in measured GVA for at least a decade
  • Jersey’s total GVA was £3.6 billion;  GNI was estimated at £3.7 billion
  • the latest measure of GVA, and the historical time series, incorporate a significant revision from those previously published due to the reclassification of some Finance sector profits as off-Island economic activity; the estimates  of GNI are not affected by this reclassification
  • the Financial services sector accounted for 43% of Jersey’s total GVA, the lowest proportion this sector has represented of this measure for at least a decade
  • financial services recorded the largest real-term fall in GVA (-12%) of the sectors comprising Jersey’s economy
  • the Agriculture sector recorded real term growth of 5% and has now seen 5 consecutive years of real term growth in GVA.

The collapse in the financial services sector is staggering. It’s not long ago that it contributed somewhat over 50% of income. And of course income has fallen in the meantime too.

I have said often since 2005 that Jersey’s economy is sinking and that it is only a matter of time before the changes in its tax system will lead it to jurisdiction bankruptcy. I did not factor the economic collapse and the rapidly developing collapse of its financial services sector into those equations. But it simply means that Jersey will fail so much sooner.

And so far all they can say they’ll do is declare independence.

An independent state is as bankrupt as one that has the UK as its economic bail out fund. Except that it will then have no bail out fund. The desire within Jersey for self destruction appears to be unlimited — and the victims will be local people.

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