The recession is not over

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My Green New Deal colleague Ann Pettifor is in the Guardian:

A banker, Alan Clarke of BNP Paribas, citing a NIESR report, confidently tells the Guardian that the recession is over. Should we take the word of any banker – especially one that claims to be an economist – seriously? ..

I say firmly, no.

[T]he most important reason for pessimism, in my view, is the hegemonic role played by fiscal conservatives. By raising fears over government deficits, and by refusing to acknowledge that government spending pays for itself, these conservatives have set the economic and political agenda in all the British media, and in every British political party (with the Green party the honourable exception). As a result, Alistair Darling seems hell-bent on committing electoral suicide, with shadow chancellor George Osborne actively encouraging him.

[As a result] the private sector will not be able to rely on the public sector for the stimulus vital to recovery.

As things stand, any fragile signs of economic recovery will quickly be crushed by the failure of government to intervene and spend at an appropriate level.

Instead, government cutbacks will impact with considerable force on the fragile economy, and will hurt the middle and working classes.

As the year proceeds many will discover the true, and often pitiful value of their pensions, and will be hurt by cuts in services and job losses in the public sector. This will hamper recovery and deepen, if that is possible, the alienation of British voters from the Labour government.

We – employees, consumers, investors and borrowers – have been misled and fooled by the economics profession and finance sector for years before this crisis. As a result of our gullibility, we lost $60tn of wealth in the past year. We would be wise now to dismiss their vain efforts at confidence-boosting, and instead rest our judgments on the real world economic outlook.

Quite so.

Well worth reading the rest.