I am finding it difficult to write.
The US and Iran are at war again, but we knew that was going to happen. I had predicted this outcome, and I cannot see any change happening for a long time to come.
US weapons manufacturers, however, are uncertain whether they can meet demand for the weapons the US military wants. That is precisely why the stalemate will continue pretty much as it is at present. I predicted that as well, some time ago.
Donald Trump is continuing his trade and tariff wars, even against the countries with which the USA is currently co-hosting the World Cup. The bizarreness of all of this is plain for all to see.
So too is the cost. US inflation rose quite markedly to 4.2% last month, driven most especially by fuel and energy costs, and it will be only a matter of time before these feed through into the rest of the economy as well. The downturn that I am predicting is happening as I suggested it would.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk is stoking the flames of hatred and violence in the UK, as we are seeing on the streets of Southampton and Belfast. And all the while, the world is queuing up to buy his massively overpriced SpaceX shares. It was good to see that at least one broker who has not been ensnared in the process of issuing these shares, as more than 300 apparently have been, has been willing to say that the price of SpaceX shares is far too high, despite which fools and their money are about to be parted, yet again.
Meanwhile, the launch of these shares, and those in other tech companies like OpenAI, is going to temporarily halt the 25-year decline in the size of the US stock market that has been one of the major factors in the increase in worldwide share prices, because ever-increasing sums of money have chased ever fewer shares. But let's be clear, all that reversal means is that the likelihood of a crash is increased significantly.
And meanwhile, politicians in the UK continue to court the far right, dragged into the type of politics being created by Rupert Lowe, Nigel Farage and, let's be candid about this, Kemi Badenoch, who is as keen to support privilege for a few in our society as those other two are.
And elsewhere, Israel continues to commit genocide in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, whilst much of the world chooses to ignore it and the war crimes it commits every day.
In all this, isn't it reasonable to struggle to find things to write about? The fears that I've expressed, economically, politically, and socially, within this country and way beyond it, are all being transformed into realities. The lines of progression that I found all too easy to identify are all moving in the directions I predicted, none of which embrace any sign of hope.
The question to ask is what happens when the economy crashes, when the political far right might be willing to use that to exploit fear, and hate might be unleashed in ways not seen for a very long time? The answer is that I just do not know. I do not know what is going to happen. I do not know what to do about it. I only know that at this moment we have to cling to the belief that something better is possible, although it appears beyond our grasp at present.
So, I am going to continue to work on ideas about a politics of care, an economics of hope, and the prospect that we might be able to build a society founded on understanding, respect, and the benefits of our differences.
I am, in fact, taking time to quite deliberately reflect on these issues over the next few days. I feel a regrouping of my thinking is necessary, and the opportunity to do that has arisen, and so I'm taking it.
There will, of course, still be posts here, and Thomas is keeping the video operation going.
But the question of what I must be thinking about now seems particularly important at this moment. When everything looks as though it is going wrong and signs of hope seem to be too few and far between, that is the precise moment when you have to dig deep, and over coffees, conversations, long walks, and maybe a spot of birdwatching, that is what I intend to do.
Ideas need to be found, shared, tested, and then redeveloped after careful reflection. Continuing to catalogue events is not enough. Working out how we might rise from the ashes is what is key now.
And what am I planning to bring to the discussions? I am revisiting my 2011 book, The Courageous State, and some of the theory in there. Maybe I have done enough thinking about macroeconomics for now, and have honed the arguments there well enough for the time being. Perhaps, I need to go back to some micro as well and ask the question, what are we all about, which was a theme in that book.
If I do, I can take comfort from the fact that neoliberals are no closer to the answer now than they were in 2011 when I wrote my book. And that might be the reason to revisit it.
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Do you consider yourself a modern day nostradamus?
No. Of course not. I can just see parents in behaviour. That’s something very different.
Presume you meant patterns, not parents?
Although, parents might fit too…!
Yes!
patterns in behaviour, presumably, not parents?
Yes!
I think that your book stands as it is. Maybe not a revision but a new book based on what is happening now may be a more constructive way forward. Take time out we are human beings and not human doings. A reflective time is good and I am certain you will come back the better. Take care Richard.
I am not doing a revision.
I may be spinning a tangent off it
Thank you and please keep this going, the world really needs a politics of care. And people need to learn how that is possible.
It’s all too easy to become dispirited and be tempted to switch off and just get on with some more pleasurable pursuits. However, you have to be true to your code and carry on doing what you believe is right, even when it’s all uphill. Many people who follow the blog are with you 100% and look forward to your comments, videos, pdf’s and all the other interesting stuff. Therefore, keep on keeping on. I certainly will.
I will be carrying on – every day. But I need time to stand and stare, read and think as well for a day or too.
James and Thomas are running the fort.
Enjoy your thinking time and bird watching
I will
I need to reset for a moment
What a system neoliberalism is. The Trump Great Depression caused by neoliberalism. Guess what? The despised state is expected to bail out failed financial institutions without a whimper and at no cost to those who contributed to the Depression.
The state is seen as the safety net for the elite but not for us “peasants”.
This time there must be ” if the state is going to bail out the elite, the rabble must benefit as well.
Richard looking forward to the Courageous State Revisited.
“Continuing to catalogue events is not enough. Working out how we might rise from the ashes is what is key now. ”
Exactly what I think as well.
The right-wing has already become active in digging a hole (one could call it a grave).
It’s possible to get them out again from that, depending on how lost they are in their TINA-fanaticism to go deeper and deeper.
But in any case that means that there’s a pile of fresh soil, that they obviously deemed obsolete by replacing it with their emptiness, we can use to plant new TIARA-life on.
And sunlit fruit-trees with tasty fruits are surely more convincing than a hole with dark, cold emptiness.
When the ballot box is no longer an adequate counterweight to oligarchical power, we are in deep trouble, because it means the democratic processes are no longer sufficient to at least try for a fairer society. It seems to me that this is where we are now. I’d like to be wrong.
Many thanks indeed to you all for your valuable work to protect and further compassion with common sense!
Might it be that America is behaving belligerently because its leaders cannot/will not grasp that:
!) The unstated but actual American “empire” is in decline.
2) That attacking any country, socio-economically and/or militarily, that does not accept American “rules” is no longer generally effective.
3) That socio-economic power is now more effective than military power
Similarly, might it be that “our” local politicians cannot/will not accept that their policy of choice, neoliberalism, is visibly failing and so resort to “official” management/manipulation of the populace, such as the deliberate loose wording of legislation against “Palestine Action”, and unofficial “management”/manipulation of the populace by encouraging well publicised disturbances?
“Nil Carborundum”?
Illegitimi non carborundum, please
I saw a really interesting take on YouTube yesterday about the riots in Belfast and how immigration hysteria is being profited from, perhaps by the very people stoking it (that pesky neoliberalism again, everything is a financial transaction). Hundreds of thousands of stateless people, with fewer rights and no one looking out for them, moving into a hostile environment, are ripe for exploitation by various parties. Our immigration system has been defunded and pulled apart, so the private sector can now step in and help (profit) by detaining these people until an overburdened system can process them. Once the private company has extracted its money from the situation, the hapless migrant is thrown out to the wolves, either here or back to their own country to restart the cycle. Perhaps a courageous state would fund a proper asylum system that could undertake the country’s legal duties to asylum seekers, properly vetting, assessing and caring for people to try and get the best outcome from the situation.