I am finding it difficult to write.

The US and Iran are at war again, but we knew that was going to happen. I had predicted this outcome, and I cannot see any change happening for a long time to come.

US weapons manufacturers, however, are uncertain whether they can meet demand for the weapons the US military wants. That is precisely why the stalemate will continue pretty much as it is at present. I predicted that as well, some time ago.

Donald Trump is continuing his trade and tariff wars, even against the countries with which the USA is currently co-hosting the World Cup. The bizarreness of all of this is plain for all to see.

So too is the cost. US inflation rose quite markedly to 4.2% last month, driven most especially by fuel and energy costs, and it will be only a matter of time before these feed through into the rest of the economy as well. The downturn that I am predicting is happening as I suggested it would.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk is stoking the flames of hatred and violence in the UK, as we are seeing on the streets of Southampton and Belfast. And all the while, the world is queuing up to buy his massively overpriced SpaceX shares. It was good to see that at least one broker who has not been ensnared in the process of issuing these shares, as more than 300 apparently have been, has been willing to say that the price of SpaceX shares is far too high, despite which fools and their money are about to be parted, yet again.

Meanwhile, the launch of these shares, and those in other tech companies like OpenAI, is going to temporarily halt the 25-year decline in the size of the US stock market that has been one of the major factors in the increase in worldwide share prices, because ever-increasing sums of money have chased ever fewer shares. But let's be clear, all that reversal means is that the likelihood of a crash is increased significantly.

And meanwhile, politicians in the UK continue to court the far right, dragged into the type of politics being created by Rupert Lowe, Nigel Farage and, let's be candid about this, Kemi Badenoch, who is as keen to support privilege for a few in our society as those other two are.

And elsewhere, Israel continues to commit genocide in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, whilst much of the world chooses to ignore it and the war crimes it commits every day.

In all this, isn't it reasonable to struggle to find things to write about? The fears that I've expressed, economically, politically, and socially, within this country and way beyond it, are all being transformed into realities. The lines of progression that I found all too easy to identify are all moving in the directions I predicted, none of which embrace any sign of hope.

The question to ask is what happens when the economy crashes, when the political far right might be willing to use that to exploit fear, and hate might be unleashed in ways not seen for a very long time? The answer is that I just do not know. I do not know what is going to happen. I do not know what to do about it. I only know that at this moment we have to cling to the belief that something better is possible, although it appears beyond our grasp at present.

So, I am going to continue to work on ideas about a politics of care, an economics of hope, and the prospect that we might be able to build a society founded on understanding, respect, and the benefits of our differences.

I am, in fact, taking time to quite deliberately reflect on these issues over the next few days. I feel a regrouping of my thinking is necessary, and the opportunity to do that has arisen, and so I'm taking it.

There will, of course, still be posts here, and Thomas is keeping the video operation going.

But the question of what I must be thinking about now seems particularly important at this moment. When everything looks as though it is going wrong and signs of hope seem to be too few and far between, that is the precise moment when you have to dig deep, and over coffees, conversations, long walks, and maybe a spot of birdwatching, that is what I intend to do.

Ideas need to be found, shared, tested, and then redeveloped after careful reflection. Continuing to catalogue events is not enough. Working out how we might rise from the ashes is what is key now.  

And what am I planning to bring to the discussions? I am revisiting my 2011 book, The Courageous State, and some of the theory in there. Maybe I have done enough thinking about macroeconomics for now, and have honed the arguments there well enough for the time being. Perhaps, I need to go back to some micro as well and ask the question, what are we all about, which was a theme in that book.

If I do, I can take comfort from the fact that neoliberals are no closer to the answer now than they were in 2011 when I wrote my book. And that might be the reason to revisit it.

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