I am finding it difficult to write.
The US and Iran are at war again, but we knew that was going to happen. I had predicted this outcome, and I cannot see any change happening for a long time to come.
US weapons manufacturers, however, are uncertain whether they can meet demand for the weapons the US military wants. That is precisely why the stalemate will continue pretty much as it is at present. I predicted that as well, some time ago.
Donald Trump is continuing his trade and tariff wars, even against the countries with which the USA is currently co-hosting the World Cup. The bizarreness of all of this is plain for all to see.
So too is the cost. US inflation rose quite markedly to 4.2% last month, driven most especially by fuel and energy costs, and it will be only a matter of time before these feed through into the rest of the economy as well. The downturn that I am predicting is happening as I suggested it would.
Meanwhile, Elon Musk is stoking the flames of hatred and violence in the UK, as we are seeing on the streets of Southampton and Belfast. And all the while, the world is queuing up to buy his massively overpriced SpaceX shares. It was good to see that at least one broker who has not been ensnared in the process of issuing these shares, as more than 300 apparently have been, has been willing to say that the price of SpaceX shares is far too high, despite which fools and their money are about to be parted, yet again.
Meanwhile, the launch of these shares, and those in other tech companies like OpenAI, is going to temporarily halt the 25-year decline in the size of the US stock market that has been one of the major factors in the increase in worldwide share prices, because ever-increasing sums of money have chased ever fewer shares. But let's be clear, all that reversal means is that the likelihood of a crash is increased significantly.
And meanwhile, politicians in the UK continue to court the far right, dragged into the type of politics being created by Rupert Lowe, Nigel Farage and, let's be candid about this, Kemi Badenoch, who is as keen to support privilege for a few in our society as those other two are.
And elsewhere, Israel continues to commit genocide in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, whilst much of the world chooses to ignore it and the war crimes it commits every day.
In all this, isn't it reasonable to struggle to find things to write about? The fears that I've expressed, economically, politically, and socially, within this country and way beyond it, are all being transformed into realities. The lines of progression that I found all too easy to identify are all moving in the directions I predicted, none of which embrace any sign of hope.
The question to ask is what happens when the economy crashes, when the political far right might be willing to use that to exploit fear, and hate might be unleashed in ways not seen for a very long time? The answer is that I just do not know. I do not know what is going to happen. I do not know what to do about it. I only know that at this moment we have to cling to the belief that something better is possible, although it appears beyond our grasp at present.
So, I am going to continue to work on ideas about a politics of care, an economics of hope, and the prospect that we might be able to build a society founded on understanding, respect, and the benefits of our differences.
I am, in fact, taking time to quite deliberately reflect on these issues over the next few days. I feel a regrouping of my thinking is necessary, and the opportunity to do that has arisen, and so I'm taking it.
There will, of course, still be posts here, and Thomas is keeping the video operation going.
But the question of what I must be thinking about now seems particularly important at this moment. When everything looks as though it is going wrong and signs of hope seem to be too few and far between, that is the precise moment when you have to dig deep, and over coffees, conversations, long walks, and maybe a spot of birdwatching, that is what I intend to do.
Ideas need to be found, shared, tested, and then redeveloped after careful reflection. Continuing to catalogue events is not enough. Working out how we might rise from the ashes is what is key now.
And what am I planning to bring to the discussions? I am revisiting my 2011 book, The Courageous State, and some of the theory in there. Maybe I have done enough thinking about macroeconomics for now, and have honed the arguments there well enough for the time being. Perhaps, I need to go back to some micro as well and ask the question, what are we all about, which was a theme in that book.
If I do, I can take comfort from the fact that neoliberals are no closer to the answer now than they were in 2011 when I wrote my book. And that might be the reason to revisit it.
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Do you consider yourself a modern day nostradamus?
No. Of course not. I can just see parents in behaviour. That’s something very different.
Presume you meant patterns, not parents?
Although, parents might fit too…!
Yes!
patterns in behaviour, presumably, not parents?
Yes!
Freudian slip, perhaps ? The Starmerites could be viewed as the parents or midwives to the birth of a future far right government if something doesn’t change.
No, just my lousy typing and autocorrect
I think that your book stands as it is. Maybe not a revision but a new book based on what is happening now may be a more constructive way forward. Take time out we are human beings and not human doings. A reflective time is good and I am certain you will come back the better. Take care Richard.
I am not doing a revision.
I may be spinning a tangent off it
Thank you and please keep this going, the world really needs a politics of care. And people need to learn how that is possible.
It’s all too easy to become dispirited and be tempted to switch off and just get on with some more pleasurable pursuits. However, you have to be true to your code and carry on doing what you believe is right, even when it’s all uphill. Many people who follow the blog are with you 100% and look forward to your comments, videos, pdf’s and all the other interesting stuff. Therefore, keep on keeping on. I certainly will.
I will be carrying on – every day. But I need time to stand and stare, read and think as well for a day or too.
James and Thomas are running the fort.
Enjoy your thinking time and bird watching
I will
I need to reset for a moment
What a system neoliberalism is. The Trump Great Depression caused by neoliberalism. Guess what? The despised state is expected to bail out failed financial institutions without a whimper and at no cost to those who contributed to the Depression.
The state is seen as the safety net for the elite but not for us “peasants”.
This time there must be ” if the state is going to bail out the elite, the rabble must benefit as well.
Richard looking forward to the Courageous State Revisited.
“Continuing to catalogue events is not enough. Working out how we might rise from the ashes is what is key now. ”
Exactly what I think as well.
The right-wing has already become active in digging a hole (one could call it a grave).
It’s possible to get them out again from that, depending on how lost they are in their TINA-fanaticism to go deeper and deeper.
But in any case that means that there’s a pile of fresh soil, that they obviously deemed obsolete by replacing it with their emptiness, we can use to plant new TIARA-life on.
And sunlit fruit-trees with tasty fruits are surely more convincing than a hole with dark, cold emptiness.
When the ballot box is no longer an adequate counterweight to oligarchical power, we are in deep trouble, because it means the democratic processes are no longer sufficient to at least try for a fairer society. It seems to me that this is where we are now. I’d like to be wrong.
Many thanks indeed to you all for your valuable work to protect and further compassion with common sense!
Might it be that America is behaving belligerently because its leaders cannot/will not grasp that:
!) The unstated but actual American “empire” is in decline.
2) That attacking any country, socio-economically and/or militarily, that does not accept American “rules” is no longer generally effective.
3) That socio-economic power is now more effective than military power
Similarly, might it be that “our” local politicians cannot/will not accept that their policy of choice, neoliberalism, is visibly failing and so resort to “official” management/manipulation of the populace, such as the deliberate loose wording of legislation against “Palestine Action”, and unofficial “management”/manipulation of the populace by encouraging well publicised disturbances?
“Nil Carborundum”?
Illegitimi non carborundum, please
I saw a really interesting take on YouTube yesterday about the riots in Belfast and how immigration hysteria is being profited from, perhaps by the very people stoking it (that pesky neoliberalism again, everything is a financial transaction). Hundreds of thousands of stateless people, with fewer rights and no one looking out for them, moving into a hostile environment, are ripe for exploitation by various parties. Our immigration system has been defunded and pulled apart, so the private sector can now step in and help (profit) by detaining these people until an overburdened system can process them. Once the private company has extracted its money from the situation, the hapless migrant is thrown out to the wolves, either here or back to their own country to restart the cycle. Perhaps a courageous state would fund a proper asylum system that could undertake the country’s legal duties to asylum seekers, properly vetting, assessing and caring for people to try and get the best outcome from the situation.
To give myself a little lift in these times I listen to ‘The Battle of Cable Street ‘ by The Men They Couldn’t Hang and Bella Ciao.
Hi Richard; in your reply to Peter Miller @ 7:57am, regarding ‘Nostradamus’, should it be ‘patterns’ instead of ‘parents’?
In 17th century Scotland, we had our own ‘Nostradamus’ known as ‘The Brahan Seer’. Kenneth Mackenzie (gaelic Coinneach Odhar) was famous for predicting the fall of certain Highland Clans as well as foreseeing some technological advancements. Whether his foresight extended to the demise of neo-liberalism or the onset of Artificial Intelligence I have no way of knowing. I could ask an AI bot… but the power consumed would not be worth any opinion offered!
Yes
Autocorrect error I missed
You can only write about the world as it is for so long before it grinds you down. Take the break.
It may be worth considering how a politics of care is already making a difference. It looks like the Mayor of New York is putting his plans in place to some effect. Could that be a real life example to write about? Not sure if there are other examples from around the world or in the UK.
Or how about a series of open letters to the Green Party about various things that are missing in their policies? Unlike the Single Transferable Party, they do sound as if they listen.
Other than that, Birdwatching. Lots of it.
Thanks
Thank you Richard, to you and your family. You must find the path you think best, and take care of yourself. The world situation is eating into me, and I engage with it for minutes per day, not hours. Whatever you come up with will be worth the read and actionable, as you always seek answers.
Taking time to think is wise. Often it is how we avoid getting ‘bogged down’ in your own thoughts and feelings. It helps develop a fresh perspective on things.
If your ideas are not refreshed, you risk taking yourself too seriously and lose sight of the bigger picture.
Imo.
Thanks
Low points are moments of increased opportunity, and the very low points, even more so.
There is a greater willingness to challenge orthodoxy.
Heterodoxy seems less risky when all else has failed.
People do eventually tire of lies, dishonesty, corruption, anger and hatred and can be inspired to change.
Deep inside, people begin to question whether there might be something better available.
As you have suggested, the low point is a good time for beavering away on solutions, rather than yielding to despair.
Ultimately, what do we believe about our fellow human beings? Do we have a pessimistic anthropology, or an optimistic one? What do I “believe”?
Whatever everyone ELSE might appear to be doing, what am I meant to be doing, in MY context, with MY gifts and experience and relationships and opportunities? (In my personal faith context, that is to take v seriously, the phrase in the Lord’s Prayer, “thy will be done on earth as it is in heaven” – the very antithesis of “pie in the sky when you die”).
Sometimes, surprising, unpredictable, even miraculous things happen.
Like you, I see lots of discouraging things happening, with no logical reasons for much hope. But I am hopeful, because the small-minded oligarchy that run the world right now, are looking very very fragile. They haven’t a hope of standing up against an outbreak of care, hope, love, service, and respect, nor do they have the intelligence or ingenuity to defeat human resourcefulness and courage. They are broken hollow defeated shells, and they WILL fail.
I’m off to find a copy of The Courageous State.
Thank you. Appreciated.
When it feels like the vibe is ‘a lonely voice in the wilderness’ I can thoroughly recommend the upcoming report instigated by UN Special Rapporteur Olivier de Schutter and a New Economics for Eradicating Poverty.
The report, A Roadmap for Eradicating Poverty Beyond Growth, is comprehensive and fully encompasses a Politics of Care. (https://www.neep-poverty.org/roadmap-for-eradicating-poverty-beyond-growth/)
Nil desperandum…..there is so much good, progressive thinking going on ‘out there’ and with neoliberal capitalism effectively destroying itself change is definitely coming.
Maybe with touches of the bittersweet ‘he who plants the seed of a tree knowing that they will never sit in its shade’ though.
Thanks
Just a little ray of light. I was introducing a group of Year 10s (15 ish) to Sociology this morning, and we ended up discussing the influence of social media on young people, especially misogyny. All 17 of the students agreed that they are aware of, and reject the influences like that. They said it was something that influenced older people (20+), and especially men 20-40.
They may be right
Richard, it’s a splendid idea to do some birdwatching in order to ‘get your ducks in a row’! Puns and otherwise intended. It does take courage to step aside from a passion project, take your foot off the accelerator and just reflect for a while.
As someone who has spent most of my adult life in activism and campaigning I have picked up on something you have said more and more frequently, and that is the question ‘what to DO next’? Perhaps this is the key, to figure out what needs to be done now that the explanations are there for all who want to find answers. I remember a post you did a while ago saying that you had spoken with former colleagues at the Uni of Sheffield. You have said many times that the way economics is taught in universities is perhaps the root of the problem. Maybe what needs to be done is to ‘activate’ fellow academics/students into campaigning for changes to what economics is taught at university and indeed what schools should be doing to prepare young people for real world finance. This needn’t involve you doing, but rather talking to and persuading others. I don’t know how this would be set in motion – former colleagues, union reps – and I don’t even know if this is something that would work for you. But for someone who spends every day talking to people, it might be a strength to play to.
Meanwhile, enjoy your birds, coffee and conversations.
To muse on….and thank you
I don’t know how appropriate it is to share this X post, and please do not publish if it’s not so.
The video shows the crowd’s reaction when they are told that Iran started hitting Israel.
https://x.com/NahidPoureisa/status/2063827469501624569
In the bigger picture it captures a moment in a phenomenon which cannot be broadcast in any western mainstream media. For over one hundred nights, in every major village, town and city in Iran, people have been in the streets in their hundreds and thousands chanting and waving flags in support of the country’s military. My son calls it a ‘revolution against anti-revolutionaries’. They started this at the start of the war even while the US and Israel were bombing civilian areas. Unafraid, defiant and in unity. The crowd are led in a dialogue which tells the daily story of the war and the crowd respond with religious chants. Every evening the national news channels broadcast from all over the country.
While we weary of the dystopian, seemingly intractable shitshow which is Britain today, my Iranian husband tunes in every evening to gain some uplifting sense of the human spirit refusing to be cowed by Trump and Netanyahu.
This popped up on my FB ‘memories’ feed as I posted it there exactly a year ago. I thought it had legs then and I think it has even more now
“The Age of Aggression
The age of aggression is the contemporary era of political economy, defined by the aggressive dominance of corporate and ultra-wealthy interests over democratic institutions, public discourse, and resource allocation.
The Age of Aggression marks the latest phase in the evolution of modern capitalism, succeeding the post-war Age of Compassion and the neoliberal Age of Indifference. It began with the rise of figures such as Donald Trump and has intensified through the influence of billionaires, global corporations, and tech elites whose power now eclipses that of many governments.
In this era, political economy—understood not simply as the study of who gets what, but why they get it—is shaped by force rather than consent. Competition in ideas, particularly in economics and politics, has been all but eliminated. Neoliberal orthodoxy reigns unchallenged, and dissent is sidelined.
The wealthy and powerful now assert their interests with open contempt for democracy and the public good. Control of media, technology, and narrative allows them to dictate terms while rendering the concerns of ordinary people irrelevant. This is an era not merely of inequality, but of active suppression and exclusion.
The Age of Aggression is thus not just about economics or politics—it is about the use of economic and cultural power as tools of domination. It will, inevitably, end. Aggression always does. But until a new politics of compassion emerges, this is the world we must navigate—and resist”
Richard Murphy
Thanks
A small but thriving example of resistance is here in Bristol, in the development of the SS Great Britain museum, now moving its educational focus to the PEOPLE involved and affected in the life of the ship, rather than just the engineering.
Eg: the story of the Mumbai rebellion and its suppression by troops who travelled on the ship, or the UK visit of the Australian First Nation cricket team and the Aboriginal “Protection” Act that prohibited First Nation travel outide Australia.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/new-name-ss-great-britain-11008742
TIARA!
There is Teflon Trump and his sycophants, but also Musk and those that seem to suck in whatever gassed he emits within his ever expanding ego-centric bubble which as some stage is either going to catastrophically explode or implode, but yet he carries on without impunity inciting hate and over-valuing his businesses.
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/11/elon-musk-spacex-belfast-riots-incitement
At this time it feels like the pieces of the jigsaw are all shaken, scattered all over the floor, with pieces turned over. Taking a breather, a step back, another look, sorting, joining bits together again section by section, with assistance from others when needed, will eventually get you back on track to get the pieces all to get to fit together again to make sense of this complex puzzle.
Most of all though, take care of yourself in the pursuit of helping others.
Thanks
In a word, …. “Vietnam”. Think about it. And as they say, “The sky is blue …… but there is a cloud in the sky.”
Marx taught that revolution is impossible until the ruling elite (the neoliberal uniparty) lose their ability to maintain dominance through their standard methods—whether due to economic collapse, political infighting, or an inability to manage the productive forces of society.
Marx said a lot in an era not very like that which exists now.