Are we at a tipping point? Could the growing wave of protests around the world signal the beginning of the end of neoliberalism and the emergence of a fundamentally different political and economic system?

For more than 40 years, neoliberalism has dominated political and economic policy. It has promised prosperity, opportunity and freedom. But inequality has increased, housing has become unaffordable, public services have deteriorated, and economic insecurity has grown.

Now people are demanding change.

Across Europe and beyond, protests are challenging the political and economic status quo. Young people, particularly Generation Z, are at the forefront. Their demands vary, but the underlying frustration is remarkably similar: the existing system is failing to meet their needs.

In this video, I ask whether these protests could represent a tipping point, when accumulated dissatisfaction finally produces fundamental political change.

I consider the research of Harvard professor Erica Chenoweth into how relatively small movements can achieve extraordinary results.

Then, I explore why changing governments may not be enough when the economic assumptions underpinning their policies remain unchanged.

But there is another question. If neoliberalism is approaching its end, what replaces it?

Rejecting the existing system is not enough. We need a credible alternative.

I argue that this must involve an economics of hope and a politics of care, putting people, democracy and collective well-being before the demands of markets.

So, are we witnessing a historic turning point, or merely the beginning of a much longer struggle for change? Time will tell.

This is the audio version:

This is the transcript:

Is neoliberalism approaching a tipping point? It's a question I need to ask because, well, it feels like it is, doesn't it?

Protests are spreading around the world. Young people are demanding change. Neoliberalism has dominated us for the last 40 years, but its promises have failed.

So could its end be approaching? Are we now at the point where there is going to be the momentum to deliver a new political system for the UK, for the USA, for Europe and well beyond? That's the question of the moment.

And the fact is that people are withdrawing their consent for neoliberal rule. Neoliberalism has created massive disquiet, and people have had enough of inequality. They've had enough of austerity. They want security and opportunity, and they want something more than a good government. They want a system that reflects their well-being and their future. And that is why so many young people in particular are now on the streets of countries protesting.

To me, it looks like a tipping point is arriving. What is a tipping point? It's a moment of fundamental change. Small events can trigger enormous consequences when a tipping point arrives. We never can anticipate precisely what will create this outcome. We can never decide why one particular small event is sufficient to create the momentum for a massive change.

But it happens, and that's because pressures accumulate over many years, and then change can happen very quickly. Sometimes it can't be reversed. Could neoliberalism be approaching that moment?

The world is protesting against failed neoliberal policies. France, Germany, Italy, and Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, and Serbia, India, Bangladesh, and Mexico. All of them, and the UK as well to some degree, are showing signs of discontent.

Generation Z, Gen Z, is helping lead the protests. It is at the forefront of the demand for change because, very obviously, young people can see that neoliberalism is not offering them any form of return in the way it did to previous generations.

And why are young people protesting?

They're protesting about education in some countries. They want more investment in themselves so that they can partake in society. And why not?

They're protesting about climate change.

In Germany, they're protesting about military service.

In Spain and Portugal, they're protesting about housing costs.

In the UK, people are protesting about Palestine.

The point is, there is no one common theme. The failures are, however, all connected. In every case, the failure is of neoliberalism and its demands of people that they comply with its requirements, when, so obviously, those requirements are not producing desirable outcomes.

Neoliberalism has failed to deliver prosperity. Inequality has increased. Housing has become unaffordable for many. Public services have deteriorated. Jobs have disappeared. Economic insecurity has grown, and people increasingly want something different. They reject the rentier society in which we live, which extracts money from them by way of interest charges and by way of rents. They are upset by monopoly profits. They want genuine opportunities. They've had enough.

And as a consequence, politics is changing around the world.

Brazil and Serbia have shown in the last few weeks what political discontent looks like.

America's midterm elections, the result of which I do not yet know because this is being recorded while people are still voting, will test Trump's support. As far as we can see, the Democrats are way ahead. But will that be enough to keep people happy? I doubt it.

There is a demand for new politics, and we're seeing that. We're seeing the rise of the far-right. We're also now seeing the decline of the far-right. In the UK, we can see that. Nigel Farage is a busted flush. His moment has been, and it's gone.

People are fed up with his corruption or what looks to be corruption. We haven't yet seen it proved, but they don't like the taint of big money being given to him for his own use as a consequence of his politics.

They don't like his authoritarian style either. People want freedom. They don't want to see governments made up of people who are going to tell them what to do and pick on others.

And even the power of big tech is being questioned. Time and time again, people are saying ‘no' to AI, its data centres and everything that goes with it. They question: what is the value of this technology? And they're doing that in part because it is so heavily associated with the politics of oppression, which the far-right in the USA and elsewhere are fueling. Elon Musk is the biggest enemy of AI because of how he is using the money that he has earned from it.

And these protests are about the economic system, and they are systemic. They're not saying we don't like a party. They're saying we don't like any party that subscribes to this style of thinking.

In the UK, I've called this the problem of the ‘single transferable party'. The Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats have all sounded similar when it comes to economic policy, and people are saying: ‘Changing government is not, then, enough. We want to change the system itself.'

We want to get rid of markets dominating political decision-making. We want to put people at the epicentre of politics. We want people's interests to be at the centre of the concern of any future government. And they understand that at this moment they could, by their actions, make a difference. They could topple the neoliberal regime in all its forms.

Now, Erica Chenoweth has created a theory around this. She's a Harvard professor, and she's looked at how small movements can create enormous change. This is the theory of the tipping point. And her research has identified that when 3.5% of the population participate in a pattern of demand for reform, that demand can be sustained. And, as a consequence, change happens.

There are some important criteria to fulfil, though. Sustained organisation matters as much as numbers, and clear demands help make movements more effective.

So could today's protests become those that create the tipping point in accordance with her theory? Well, they might.

But the question is, what replaces neoliberalism? Rejecting it is not enough. People need a credible alternative. The economy must meet people's needs in the future, and public services must take priority over market outsourcing. Government must reclaim its economic role to keep people happy, and democracy must replace the rule by markets and those who dominate large companies and their finance.

So, is the tipping point approaching? Is the coherence of the argument for the alternative good enough as yet? I don't know. It may be. We could be on the cusp of a tipping point, and protests clearly show that there is a growing sense of rejection of what we've had. Young people are demanding something better, and the existing political consensus is weakening, as is the far-right challenge to it.

So a shared alternative could trigger fundamental change. But are we really witnessing that process at the moment? Are we looking at the end of neoliberalism? Or are we just looking at the beginning of that end, where the awareness has finally arrived that we must have something else, but we have yet to give rise to the arguments?

And what happens then? Do we go through a period of an interregnum where the old neoliberalism is dead, but the new has yet to be born? That's a Gramscian phase, I'm well aware, but the point is we could go through that turmoil. We might have several years where we do not know where we're going.

But the fact is, this is the moment where I think we need an economics of hope, hope for people, in other words, and a politics of care. And that means everybody matters. That has not been true in the economy we've had.

We need to build those two things, economics of hope for people and the politics of care for those who would otherwise be left behind, so that we have an inclusive society in which everyone from Gen Z upwards, and indeed those who follow them, can believe they have a chance in the world in which we live.

That is where we are. That is what I think is our direction of travel.

But that's what I think. What do you think? There is, of course, a poll down below.

Poll

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