Another of my predictions is coming true.
It is being reliably reported that the Houthis in Yemen have taken control of access to the Red Sea. If that is the case, we can assume access to the Suez Canal is blocked. This massively increases the scale of all Far and Middle East supply chain issues (and I apologise for using the colonial terms to aid communication on this occasion).
The world's economic crisis just deepened, as I forecast months ago. That previous post is worth re-reading now.
This is moving beyond concern into a crisis.
When will Burnham react?
Will Healey notice?
Those are the questions to be asked, because if they do not, things will just get much worse, and very quickly.
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You ask if Burnham and Healey will notice and when. It’s almost as if contingency planning for trade disruption is not a core government competence, and should perhaps be left to the experts who are the traders themselves.
Regrettably Burnham and Healey appear fixated on fictious fiscal purity over what is actually happening in the world.
It has been clear for months that a huge economic crisis is looming. What have we had in response from our politicians? Apart from “stock up on toilet rolls”, silence.
We can expect them to concur with Bailey that the only thing to do is push up interest rates and cut services.
The world is in a very dangerous place.
The Houthis have more drones and ballistic missiles than the Saudis. They are battle hardened and independent. Iran may arm and advise but Iran does not control the Houthis.
All the talk of tactical nuclear bombing by the US and Israel being now the only way to finally defeat Iran is madness. What are the US and Israel thinking? There is no such thing as a limited effect of nuclear weapons. Thousands will die.
Do they expect Iran to surrender if this happens? No way will Iran do that. Israel and the Gulf states may well become uninhabitable if Iran retaliates as threatened after such an attack.
Many concerns to agree with
John,
I may have mentioned this before, but in a former life I had contact with civilian contractors in the US armed forces. I was once told that many Americans would be happy to turn the the middle east into ‘a glass carpark’. Dangerous times indeed.
In fairness to Burnt-ham and school-boy-Healey I’m not sure what they can do. Ask the BoE to raise interest rates? that’ll fix it (just like the ECB did).
Quite clever tactics by the Houthis & Iran. The two straits (Hormuz and Red sea) could be characterised as a pair of testicles – & Iran has one in each hand. Can’t think what they will do next, squeeze?
None of this would have happened were it not for two & only two people: tRump and Net & Yahooo. They own this 100%. The Irish could pull the plug by sending tRump to the ICC & any EU country doing the same with Nat & yahoo. In the mean time it is all set fair for the US mid-terms and global chaos.
Or perhaps not. While the Houthis have indeed made gains, they are also brushing up on their PR and at pains to be seen as responsible and internationally acceptable.
https://splash247.com/houthis-advance-towards-bab-al-mandab-with-capture-of-mokha/
At this stage, now is the time for something new I think. Yes, boldness, nay – courageousness is what is required for sure. No half measures. Richard is right as usual.
Really, Burnham has to deliver for himself and his party – to keep them in power, but also to keep out the Far Right. I’m hoping that he knows what is at stake. Making people worse off and telling them it is good for them and the country? I don’t think so.
The other day I had a daydream. It was where a PM or a leader of some sort (the new Governor of the BoE?) invited all the bondholders playing up to a meeting at Threadneedle Street at 10:30 in the morning, coffee and croissants provided (they could bring their own cocaine) – where they would be given back their money for their bonds, plus interest as in the original bond agreement up to that period. They would then be told that to stave off inflation, they would be taxed at 70% and finally told to fuck of and die and that we didn’t need their money or need to see them ever again. However, if they wanted to save their money or just store it with the State (because it is not used to fund spending), that they would be welcome to but they had to sign a no disclosure agreement and forfeit any interest growth if they ever opened their big traps again and find somewhere else to store it that was so watertight.
I’m not sure if this is the sort of courageousness that Richard had in mind, but it works for me.
Not quite….
Just to add to the day’s sense of fun and frivolity, I read this yesterday:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/sep/09/anthropic-researchers-ai-human-extinction
So 40 months to the end of our species. Does anyone have any idea how the Anthropic boys expect their progeny to actually achieve this remarkable feat? And does Arnie (sadly Bruce is not well enough to help out this time) have a plan to save us all?
Now on the blog – thank you
Alas, might the following quotation be reasonably valid?
”The attributes which get a person to lead an organisation are, all too rarely, not the attibutes which result in the good leadership of that organisation.” (Janette B. Gillies)
Correct
One hopes that the AI programmers have wound in Azimov’s zeroth law of robotics (which he added later than the original 3) “A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.”
Most of the Azimov robot stories showed how the three fundamental rules of robotics were circumvented by the robots. Including if I remember rightly, one where a robot had a baby. Plus ca change.
Yes, C Renn, in fact the zeroth was used to circumvent the first. Indeed, I have checked since posting that, and there are no such codes in AI. They use hundreds of pages of legal compliance, especially with the EU AI Act.