Am I an MMT economist?

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Background

The podcast I posted here yesterday, which, admittedly, very few people have watched, included an implicit challenge from economist Will Thomson, who repeated a suggestion he made when he interviewed me at the Scottish Festival of Economics in Edinburgh on March 21, that I might not be an MMT economist. The idea is an interesting one because, on the same day that he interviewed me, Warren Mosler, a founder of MMT, suggested that I was the most successful proponent of MMT in the world right now, and was also the first to stand and applaud what I had to say when my interview with Will that day came to a close.

Nonetheless, this idea that I am doctrinally impure does, I think, persist in MMT circles and is now something I need to challenge, because if MMT wishes to insist upon a set of what I think to be inappropriate policy proposals, as opposed to theories, that supposedly and illogically define what it is, to which you must subscribe if you are to be considered an MMT supporter or economist, then it is a movement that is, I think, in deep trouble and bound for irrelevance.

The long post that follows is, then, of significance because it explains why I think MMT academics are, at present, undermining the very ideas and cause they claim to represent. In that case, if you are interested in MMT, stay with this one and please give it a read.

Introduction

When I was 21, I made a decision that I have never regretted. Having spent three years at university studying economics, I decided to pursue career doing economics.

It is important to note the choice I made. I decided to stop focusing on studying economics and chose to do it instead.

There were good reasons for my decision to train as, and then become, a chartered accountant, followed by a career as both a practising accountant and a serial entrepreneur. I had enjoyed my study of economics, but felt that much of what I had been taught was profoundly wrong. I realised that I could maintain my interest in the subject whilst testing the issues in the real world, and simultaneously do something I felt was more important. This was to learn how to manage a business and deliver good governance, accountability, and transparency, whilst simultaneously learning to make real business decisions so that I could fulfil my ambition, which was always to create jobs.

Nothing has ever pleased me more throughout my career than creating gainful employment for other people. I am still doing that, and the rewards are as great as ever. They are not purely, or even ever, primarily financial. I have never, throughout my career, understood the claim that business people profit maximise, and I have never done so, partly because the claim is in itself both meaningless and unmeasurable. Instead, the reward comes from something much more important, and is based on the relationship between people and the satisfaction of realising that you have helped someone achieve their potential, which I think I can fairly claim to have done over time.

Why this matters now

Why do I say all this now? I do so in the context of my recent podcast discussion with Will Thomson, in which we discussed the role of the job guarantee in modern monetary theory (MMT). During that discussion, Will, who is, I think, well respected in academic MMT circles, said that:

The job guarantee is to MMT what collective ownership of the means of production is to Marxism; it is constitutive rather than optional.

I respect Will's right to make that suggestion. At the same time, I note that what he said by implication was something he vocalised more clearly during our conversation in Leith, Edinburgh, on 21 March. He asked me then whether I really was an MMT economist, and I can only presume he did so because he had already established, in his own mind, and according to the criteria that it appears he and other MMT academics have created, that I am not.

Again, I respect Will's right to say this. Of course, he is entitled to his opinion, but in the same way, I am entitled to say that he is both wrong and profoundly so.

I explained my objections to the job guarantee in the podcast. However, I will reiterate those arguments here before I go on to explain the implications of Will's position and the fact, as I expressed in the podcast, that its dedication to the so-called job guarantee entirely discredits the whole MMT position, in my opinion.

The theoretical error

Dealing with my objections first of all, the first quite fundamental objection is that if  MMT is, in my opinion, and as we agreed, now a recognised school of economic thought, it is so on the basis of developing ideas previously expressed in Knapp's 1905 theories on what came to be called chartalism; the development of that chartalist thought included in Keynes's 1930 Treatise on Money, which is the foundation for most post-Keynesian thinking on this issue, and in Abba Lerner's work on functional finance.

Will's claim is that MMT has become a school of economic thinking in its own right on the basis of:

  • Its promotion of the job guarantee,
  • The promotion of state control of central banking (with which I agree),
  • The consequent promotion of a zero rate of interest on central bank reserve accounts (with which, pragmatically, I can only partially agree), and
  • The promotion of a Green New Deal, of which I can wholly fairly claim to be a major creator, but which I can also quite fairly state is a policy agenda which can, and I think often does, exist independently of MMT.

To put this another way, Will's claims about what makes MMT an independent school of economic thought rest on decidedly shaky foundations.

In reality, MMT is an independent school of economic thought because it provides an explanation, based on evidence drawn from real-world observation, as to how government funding, taxation, government borrowing, and the role of government money creation impact the economy in ways ignored by all other schools of economic thought. As a consequence, I stress, MMT enables consideration of policy agendas that were previously considered impossible under neoliberalism. But to confuse policy opportunity with theory is a category error, and that category error is deeply implicit in the claims that Will makes, meaning that they are quite literally categorically wrong.

I could stop this post here. I could argue at this juncture that if MMT is properly defined, and I think I have just done that, then I am very obviously an MMT economist. But doing so would not let me cover my further objections to the job guarantee, so I will continue on that theme.

Practical impossibility

Secondly, pragmatically, the job guarantee cannot work. The idea that local authorities or civic community groups should spend their time ensuring that they have suitable jobs available for any person who might become unemployed in their community, so that the person in question might be offered an immediate chance of work, using the skills that they currently have or wish to develop, at a wage that is little above the current minimum wage, and possibly below a living wage, is not just flawed, but utterly impractical. In practical terms, it would require the most phenomenal waste of resources amongst those required to imagine and have available jobs when, with a very high degree of probability, those job opportunities will never be required, and the likelihood that the work will be undertaken is minimal. If anyone was setting out to create meaningless work, this might be its most perfect definition.

Such a proposal would divert large amounts of valuable labour resources away from tasks that need to be undertaken towards the management of remote possibilities that might never exist. And, as Will agreed during our discussion, if a major employer were to fail in a community, the prospects that a job guarantee could actually operate are remote in the extreme. As experience shows, no community can recover from a shock of that sort in the short term, and promoting such an idea would create a political nightmare and a credibility crisis for any politician who tried to claim it was possible.

The wage floor claim

Thirdly, I think the claim that the job guarantee provides a benchmark for the price of labour is not credible in a country like the UK. This might be true in the USA, where the minimum wage is ludicrously low and effectively inoperative, but in a country like the UK, where the minimum wage already provides a floor for pay at which many people are employed, this claim simply does not stand up. The job guarantee claim on this issue ignores the fact that other policy options with greater overall effectiveness are available to achieve this objective.

The risk of compulsion

Fourthly, I fear the risk of compulsion if a job guarantee were introduced, and that risk is sufficient to object to it.

The human reality

Fifthly, I resent the idea that the job guarantee should be provided as a mechanism to deliver continuous employment for those between jobs in the private sector. There are many reasons for this, but in principle, there appears to be an implicit belief throughout the job guarantee that private-sector jobs are valued, and that nothing the state sector can do is worth as much. That belief I think to be profoundly mistaken. It is certainly implicit in this suggestion.

Simultaneously, I think this idea does not sufficiently respect the agency and autonomy of those who are made unemployed, or who need to leave employment for any reason, such as employer abuse in the private sector, and the resulting time that they will require to appraise their circumstances, rethink what they require from employment, and go through the necessary, and time-consuming, process of securing new employment. The reality of all of this is something that the job guarantee trivialises.

We should not expect those who have been made or forced into unemployment to return to immediate employment. We should, instead, be providing a social security system that reflects their circumstances, their need for a continuing and appropriate level of income, and their right to continue living in the home they have. We did once have such a system. The scandal is that we do not have one now.

Let me also be clear: having a job at £15 an hour will not, in a great many cases, meet these needs, whilst the time spent undertaking that job-guarantee based employment might well undermine the prospect of a person returning to gainful employment when the opportunity arises, because it will prevent a person from having the time to search for appropriate work. At a human level, this might be my biggest objection to the job guarantee.

To summarise, then, the job guarantee is not an existential part of MMT, however much some might like to claim otherwise. It is pragmatically undeliverable and exceptionally wasteful of resources that might be better used elsewhere. The economy's potential is reduced by wasting resources in this way. It does not provide the inflation floor claimed for it by some within MMT, both because alternative policies can deliver that outcome and because that claim shows a profound misunderstanding of most modern inflation, which is almost never wage-driven. And the job guarantee does not reflect the lived experience of those who are unemployed. All of these are, in my opinion, profound and fundamental failures.

The consequences for MMT

What is the consequence of this? There are several.

The first is that the claim made for the job guarantee and its constitutive nature suggests that far too many MMT academics have fallen into the age-old trap of both arguing about economic niceties for the sake of arguing, and of also offering neat, supposedly theoretically justifiable, solutions to economic problems that are totally unrelated to the real economy that an astute observer can see that such suggestions conflict with.

By falling into this trap, much of economics has become what has been called a dismal science, proposing theories with no evidential base whilst making prescriptions and dictating policy that have no real-world use. The sad fact that MMT academics now appear engaged in these fruitless and even useless activities is something to be deeply regretted. They are, as I suggested in the podcast, discrediting the whole idea of MMT by doing so and at the same time, are putting at risk the chance that it might deliver on its promise of potentially vastly better outcomes in the real world. That, I think, would be disastrous.

Secondly, by being dogmatic in the way that Will and others within MMT have been on various issues, they greatly increase the chance of MMT being described as a cult, as has happened far too often already. Other forms of left-of-centre thinking, and in particular the various strands of Marxism, have already been consigned to real-world irrelevance as a consequence of their dogmatic infighting, which leaves most people indifferent to the benefit of any claims that they might make. By being dogmatic, MMT academics take the risk of consigning MMT to the same fate. If so, perhaps I am best out of it.

Thirdly, and most importantly, this exercise in theoretical time-wasting totally misses the point of what MMT is about, which is the empowerment of the potential to deliver optimal outcomes within the real-world economy. MMT makes it possible for us to imagine policies of full employment, sustainable resource usage, environments of controlled inflation, the creation of resilience, and lives worth living to the full. Arguing about policy details, such as theoretically optimal interest rates and unworkable schemes to deliver full employment, undermines and even destroys that potential, and that, in my opinion, is unforgivable.

Conclusions

So, what do I conclude from this? The first, most interesting thing to say is that, according to some MMT academics, I am not a proponent of MMT. As a reader, you should be aware of this.

Secondly, you should also be aware that what these academics now appear to want is that MMT be turned into an arena for inconsequential academic dispute, with little or no real-world relevance, which would be a contest seemingly pursued by those who have lost sight of the purpose of economics, which is to effect change in the real world for the benefit of the people who live within it.

Third, there is no chance that I will be endorsing the idea of a job guarantee so that I might be endorsed as an MMT economist. This matters.  MMT creator, Warren Mosler, suggested when he also spoke in Leith on 21 March, that I might be the best-read and most social media-noted commentator on MMT in the world, but if I am required to endorse ideas that I consider irrelevant, unworkable, and even straightforwardly harmful to be afforded that status, I would rather not have it. I will, instead, think and speak for myself, as I am here.

So, let me go back to basics to conclude. The foundations for what I think is MMT, to be found in the work of Knapp, Keynes and Lerner on theories related to money, are, I think, broadly right, although as yet the actual nature of money has not, in my opinion, ever been properly formulated, even in the works of people like Christine Desan. There is, then, still academic work to do on this issue, but much more importantly, in many ways, there is a great deal more work to do on a pragmatic basis to deliver the potential that the thinking of those four people, when combined with that of Hyman Minsky and Wynne Godley, can deliver. In the grand scheme of things, they are the people whose work matters, and if a new name is required to explain that school of thought, which would, as a result, leave the term MMT behind, maybe that is a necessary development. I am open to that.

What I will not do is compromise to support those unworkable ideas that Will has claimed, I think correctly, most academic proponents of MMT now think are core to it as a school of economic thought. These ideas, as far as I can see, risk,  as a result of their promotion, the chance that MMT will be consigned to being a footnote in history , and that is something I would regret.

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