What happens if Trump wins the US election?

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I have published this video this morning. In it, I argue that Trump might win the US presidency again. It might be the biggest shock to the world order in the lifetime of most people now on the planet.

The audio version of this video is here:

The transcript is:

What happens if Trump wins the US election and becomes president of the United States again?

It scares me rigid to think about that possibility.

I found it almost absurd that he won in 2016, and his four years in office were a disaster: a disaster for ordinary people, a disaster for the state of the US economy, a disaster for the state of US debt, because he gave so much money to the rich at cost to borrowing from markets.

And now it's going to be so much worse.

Trump arrived in office in 2016 wholly unprepared for the fact he was going to be president and relying on a range of supporters who were, well, crazy is the nicest possible description.

But this time he's arriving in office with the support of, well, people who are crazy but a lot more competent about their craziness.

There are around 25 far-right wing think tanks in the States, led by the Heritage Foundation -  with whom I have crossed swords over many years on tax haven issues, because they support them and I never have -  and they are leading the campaign for Trump and deciding how he will run the presidency from 2025 onwards.

Project 2025 is deeply ominous.

It is about US isolation in the world.

It's about backing away from Ukraine, supporting Israel more than ever, backing away from Europe, backing away from NATO, backing away from any international responsibility to maintain a stable international economic order, backing away from tax deals, which might make sure that international corporations are taxed fairly, and attacking China.

Attacking other countries too, including the whole of Europe on economic issues through tariff wars, creating instability, and of course, domestically, attacking every minority in the USA: attacking women and their rights, including that to abortion, attacking migrants and threatening that they will be sent out of the country. 11 million are supposedly at threat, with the army supposedly being deployed to deliver this, and the U. S. Army is never deployed domestically.

This is a clear fascist agenda. Fascism is all about the idea that a strong man, which is what Trump thinks he is, who will lead the country against an imagined “other” - the “other” being migrants and frankly, everyone outside the USA, to deliver salvation for the people of that country.

Although, in practice, the only people who will gain will be the ultra-wealthy, and they, of course, are the people in whose interest Trump is really acting.

So, we face an absolute disaster. If Trump is to win that will have massive implications for the world at large and it will create economic instability in the UK.

What do we do about it? There's nothing we can do about it. But we can pray that the Democrats might look very hard at themselves and ask the question whether Biden is really good enough to take on this man? And should they change tack even now and back somebody who has a chance of holding fascism at bay in the USA? Because that is literally what we're looking at.

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