I always knew 2020 was going to be an interesting year. Like just about everyone else, I had no idea how challenging it was going to be.
What I expected were new patterns of work. I left full-time employment at City, University of London in late 2019, and without one replacement job in mind always knew 2020 was going to bring challenges. However, as the year began a range of consulting opportunities and grants suggested a reasonably good replacement work profile was available.
The year began well with my first of two reports published with Sheffield University colleagues coming out in March. Academic paper progress, with different Sheffield colleagues, was also good. And then COVID hit.
Quite literally in my case. I did the Jeremy Vine in London on 12 March, foretelling that Rishi Sunak had massively misread the crisis to come, and within days was in bed with what was undoubtedly COVID. It got scary when it went to my chest, and then I was one of the lucky ones, and got better. It wiped me out for a month though, and has left me with what seems to be a long COVID condition. About every three weeks I have a day of migraine style headache, which is not fun. But at least it was no worse. It has, however, left me very angry with those who deny the reality of this disease, which is really nasty.
As that happened I watched my income disappear. Consultancies were, quite reasonably, cancelled or put on hold. So too was the largest anticipated grant, from Sheffield. Expected in March, it finally came through in November. That lack of a full time employment suddenly became a very real issue.
I am immensely grateful to the Joffe Trust who at this point helped with two grants. One was to the Corporate Accountability Network to advance sustainable cost accounting. This was seemingly making rapid progress until lockdown. And now the momentum might be recovering again. The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales have been quiet but ever-present supporters of the idea throughout.
The other grant was for work on tax after coronavirus, on which a whole series of posts were written, which had some influence, getting more news coverage than I expected and helping fuel the debate that now exists on taxing wealth, in particular. Submissions were also made to various parliamentary committees.
A spin-off from the Joffe grants was that I launched an appeal in the blog for funding. I had always resisted the idea of doing so, but when I launched it I had very little idea where grants to keep the work going might come from. I am immensely grateful to all who donated. They provided confidence when there was little reason to locate it elsewhere. Donations have now exceeded an average of £1,000 a month with about 90 active donors, most making small but regular donations that are likely over time to become an increasingly important funding source as the blog itself has the potential to take more of my time.
The year saw record blog traffic. It will end with about 3.15 million reads, somewhat above the previous peak of 2.5 million in 2017. The vibrancy of the discussion no doubt helped this, greatly. I am grateful to all who have contributed a great deal. The regulars know who they are. I learned a great deal. I hope others did.
The videos were an innovation, starting at the suggestion of Mark Cooney, with whom I have worked on them. The channel has over 2,000 subscribers. The new year will, I hope, see new developments on this.
The videos seem popular on Twitter from feedback it provides. But it was, in general, a good year for getting my messages out on Twitter. My number of followers is now growing at around 2,000 a month. The long Twitter feeds seeking to explain complex issues in bite-size chunks appear to be surprisingly popular, and will continue.
Work on freeports, sponsored by the Fair Tax Mark might have seemed ahead of its time when published in July. With these now being the apparent benefit from Brexit the work, which was the biggest piece in opposition to the proposal presented to the public consultation on the subject, seems very relevant now. Try as I might I could find no upsides.
Behind the scenes a great deal of work was done in the year on tax spillover analysis, which is an idea developed with Andrew Baker at Sheffield. A report on this was written for the Global Initiative for Financial Transparency, which is backed by the IMF and World Bank, and they and the International Budget Partnership (similarly backed) are looking to progress this work in 2021. The work also underpins my REF Impact Case Study for City, University of London, which brings my work there to a successful end.
During the autumn I became fairly obsessed with researching the nature of the national debt. This proved to be much more involved than I could have expected. It has unearthed major issues and the hope that it might be out in 2020 proved to be forlorn. A draft was ready, but colleagues have asked me to break the issues down further. The description of it as ‘bloody hard' made by one reviewer may well be apt. This is an early priority for 2021.
2021 will see progress in other issues. A big report on using accounting data to identify critical relationships surrounding productivity issued in U.K. company reporting should be out early in 2021. This may be controversial.
Funding has also been secured as part of a loose syndicate, focussed on Sheffield once more, working on audit reform related issues. At least 20% of my time will be dedicated to this in 2021.
And, working with Sheffield and Copenhagen Business School, funding for another 20% of my time has been secured to work on sustainable cost accounting.
It has, then, been an incredibly busy year, with quite a lot of the output yet to be seen. That gives me real hope for 2021, even if there are so many unknowns in what is ahead.
There are other signs of hope. After a number of years of serious illness my partner in Tax Research, Jacqueline Murphy, has seen a significant improvement in her health this year and is playing a quite active role. That is partly seen in her Twitter output, where she is establishing her own following with her own pretty direct and incisive style, which has spilt over into my tweeting and blogs.
And with both sons at university (sometimes) I have (sometimes) less domestic pressure as well.
At the end of the year there are many reasons for concern, and even worry. But compared to my fears in April things went better than I dared hope, and I think the blog's success indicates that. I am looking forward to the work to be done in 2021.
There will be more accounting than many might initially find comfortable, but I think accounting is at the forefront of the climate debate now and commends from sources as diverse as Extinction Rebellion and Reuters suggest others share that view.
Tax is going to be a big issue as we see whether the Conservatives do try to deliver Singapore-on-Thames.
Tax and accounting are also pressing issues as more new businesses start-up as employments, and existing employers, fail.
Climate change is not going away.
And the national debt, and macroeconomic debates, are going to remain critical. Modern monetary theory is not going away either.
Health permitting (and I am taking this seriously) 2021 could be a year to make real change as the U.K. faces turmoil on many fronts. We have to come out of this crisis in a better place. At least, that's my hope. And I will be working for it.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Well done Richard.
You’re one of the hardest working people I known of for sure.
Thanks
It’s taken a week for the exhaustion to wear off…
[…] have already reviewed 2020 from the perspective of Tax Research UK, but the wider perspective is worthy of comment, if only as the groundwork for looking forward in […]
I am frequently amazed at the range of and number of things you research and comment on. I often feel I want to say ‘just make sure you look after yourself’.
I am now 74 ( to my further amazement ) and since last year, not in employment so I feel there is not a lot I can do to further the causes you support, other than quote you to my friends on social media or other public forums. I can add little informed comment to your blog as many of your commentators do.
However, we never know the extent of the good we do. I sometimes meet ex-pupils and clients who express appreciation for my small contributions. And it is often a number of small contributions which can bring about large changes.
Many aspects of the modern political economy are evil but I think evil, with its selfishness and lack of vision, trips itself up. One example is Nazi Germany where the scientists developed many advanced weapons but they were in competition for Hitler’s ear and he was not able to take sensible decisions. In Britain, by contrast, we were organised for total war and a number of committees ran the country. The top one being run by Atlee who was a decisive chairman (unlike Churchill).
So I hold out hope that bit by bit, we can improve things.
I am grateful for all you and your colleagues do, if not for me but those young people whose new photos are on my bookshelves. You know, the ones where you say, ‘What secondary school next year? Already?’
Indeed…
2021 is obviously going to start fast, hard and busy. It isn’t my business, but if I may imperinently comment neverthless,since you are exhausted, I suspect you should be taking more time off now.
[…] have reviewed the last year, both from the perspective of this blog and from that of the political economy. But what of 2021? Knowing that 2020 proved how foolhardy any […]
It will be interesting to see how events unfold in the EU in 2021. Events there will affect us even though we have severed most ties.
What is going to happen after, hopefully, the vaccination of populations brings the virus under control and we get back to some sort of normality? Will ‘normality’ mean that German, and some other, governments will wish to return to limiting budget deficits to no more than 3%? Will they want to impose even more restrictions on countries, like Italy, with high debt levels in an attempt to force a reduction?
We all know enough MMT to know the troubled times this will bring!
I think congratulations are in order – sometimes “survival” is a good result. Despite losing a mainstay of income and ill health you have survived to keep blogging and campaigning – indeed, I would suggest more than merely survive. Turmoil offers challenges and opportunities (for the well prepared) and I do think that the ideas you promote are beginning to get traction as more people begin to challenge the way things are.
I have enjoyed your blog. Sure, some threads end up as a slanging match but for the most part it is pretty civilised and productive. Indeed, there are some threads where there is a real spirit of enquiry where ideas are batted about and genuine progress made towards better informed thinking.
Who knows what 2021 will hold but two recent events are emblematic of my biggest hopes and fears
My hope? Watching the Reith Lectures by Mark Carney “How we get what we Value” suggested that the Establishment and the Powerful DO get the fact that urgent change is needed.
My fear? Walking with my son the following day to discover that I am the idealist and he is the cynic. (Although I am just hoping that is was just winding me up for a laugh……. and it did it work!).
🙂
“within days was in bed with what was undoubtedly COVID. It got scary when it went to my chest, and then I was one of the lucky ones, and got better…..”
It’s good to know you’ve got better. However, I don’t think you can say “undoubtedly” unless you had a positive test. I was struck down by a chest infection about 6 years ago and with all the symptoms of Covid. High temperature, a persistant cough, headaches, everything tasted different. It took me a couple of months to get over it fully. I would have thought it to Covid for sure, if it had happened this year.
As it happened I did have Covid in October. I felt slightly unwell for a couple of days. None of the typical symptoms though – just a headache, an upset stomach and a feeling of tiredness. It was only because my wife pestered me to have the test that I agreed. By the time the results came back I was feeling perfectly OK again.
This is why Covid is such a difficult disease to counter. Most carriers have only very mild symptoms or even none at all and so transmit the disease to those who aren’t quite so lucky.
Tests weren’t exactly plentiful in March
A GP was satisfied
I have no idea how you keep up with yourself Richard,,, but I suspect you’d get bored if you were doing any less 😀 – quite an achievement for a year, and to tell the truth, the beginning of the year, which seemed to me like it was time standing still for most of the year, now seems a distant memory; I was sure it was last year you started allowing funding for your blog – I’m glad you did so, it is such a useful resource, with the variety of subjects you cover, and you put a lot of effort into maintaining it, I’m sure most people feel it is a worthwhile investment to keep you actively blogging (some just for the opportunity to argue with you haha). I’m really glad to hear the little regular contributions add up to something that will prevent you starving anyway.
Well, a new year is nearly upon us, let’s see what it can throw at us – or, let’s see what we can throw at it! Chaos Theory (gosh, not another theory surely 😉 ) isn’t something I have an intimate knowledge of, but the principle of a small change can have a large effect is an interesting one (the classic example being the butterfly flapping its wings causing a tornado, or something, half way round the world), and I think a few of the small waves created this past year have the potential for a tsunami or two of good change – we can wait and see. Keep making waves, Richard, you never know how far or where the ripples may spread!
Health & happiness to you and yours when the new year comes, Richard 🙂 and a Happy New Year to all your readers and contributors.
[I don’t celebrate Hogmanay any more, since it became too commercialised (sorry but Jackie Bird firing off fireworks in Edinburgh is meaningless to me, it should be about community) so I’m not bothered about lockdown this year – I’ll still be going out for my New Years Day Walk to see the new year in though 😉 ]
Many thanks
I admit I am nit good at doing nothing
But it’s not always work related
Have a good new year – including that walk. I suspect I will be at the river….
Oh excellent, we can get some more photos of the river? You can get some beautiful pics with the sun so low on the horizon,,, though it won’t be as low there as it is up here – the blo*dy thing barely bothers to peek over the horizon except to glare straight in your eyes while driving, and I’m fairly far south in Glasgow. I just listened to a woman from Shetland on the radio talking about New Years celebration and how it goes on for days – after all, she says, ye dinny ken if it’s one in the morning or three in the afternoon, so you just keep going 😀 .
Anyway, that made me reflect. I’m from a small village in Perthshire, and we didn’t have any special particular event, but it would be 3 days of parties back in the day, not just the drunken late night ones, but afternoon ones, children and tea and snacks ones (and the occasional sherry), it was about visiting and gathering, and any impromptu musical thing, if your light was on you would welcome anyone in for snacks and a dram. Christmas was for family gathering, new year was always about the entire community. Different places have different traditions, and I heard the other day about, um, (forgotten now), a place that starts with S, that epitomises the meaning of new year: they would put old rubbishy items in a cage-ball, set it alight and walk down the street spinning them around their heads (sounds like quite a display!), then throw them into the bay – burning out the old, ready for the new.
That’s what I like about new year – it’s a refresh, a new start, the old year is over, it’s time to look forward to the new. That’s why I go out for a walk every New Year’s Day, its the fresh start – find some fresh air for whatever patch of daylight we get and welcome the new in (that, and I can’t handle the drink any more for the night time celebrations 😀 ), the optimism might not last much longer than the first few days, but it’s that optimism, the potential, for each brand new year – the last is now just memory, so bring on the new (particularly the spring!). It’s a sare fecht, (translation: a hard fight, re life in general), as they say, so let’s not dwell on it, next year could be better.
Christmas is nice, stressful, but a nice enough get together, but it’s not a patch on new year, on the real celebration (by whichever your preferred means are) of putting the last year behind you and feeling renewed, ready to face the new one full of potential. Enjoy your riverside stroll, and don’t forget the sunny photos for our delectation!
That depends on how early I am up!
Richard says “That depends on how early I am up!” This, from a man who’s at his computer before 5:00am most mornings – a time when some of us may just be contemplating going to bed!
Contrary’s mention of Hogmanay’s past in Scotland brought back fond memories of do-it-yourselves parties and events that brought communities together. Neighbours would descend uninvited on neighbours for parties that could go on until breakfast time; if your lights were on, you could expect to be visited for the traditional first-footing, extended merriment and a wee dram or ten. That seems to have faded away as TV and commercialised activities took over, the epitome of which is Edinburgh’s Hogmanay celebrations where commercial interests now require residents to apply for a permit just to access their own street.
For Contrary: the festival she’s thinking about is the Stonehaven Fireballs event on Hogmanay, but Burghead on the Moray Firth has a similar traditional celebration in January: the Burning of the Clavie. They’re worth checking out online as they’re spectacular events which have been going on for centuries.
A richt guid New Year tae ane an’ aw and especially to Richard, who, on top of his other work commitments, puts in an incredible shift to make this blog available for discussion and comment, while providing an opportunity to learn about topics you won’t see discussed in any depth in the MSM.