The award for the most misleading chart of the year surely goes to this, issue by the Office for National Statistics this morning in its release on quarterly unemployment data:
The idea that unemployment has 'levelled off' is risible of course: what has actually happened has been that it has been disguised.
That said, most agree that this morning's unemployment data does show an increase of maybe 600,o00 in unemployment, but with a great many so far being shielded from the true economic impact of what is happening in the economy. The exception may be amongst the self employed:
Do however note that this data is expressed as percentage variance from a fairly meaningless start point so, again, is hardly helpful in understanding the real stories behind the published data.
One statistic that did surprise me is this:
Almost certainly because the data is quarterly the true impact of one-third of the country's employees being furloughed by April is seriously understated in that downturn, which is only about 10% of worked hours.
In fact the only statistic that was published this morning in which I have very much confidence at all is this one:
The claimant count increased in May 2020 to 2.8 million, which represents a monthly increase of 1.6 million since March 2020. I am sure that is correct, and a sign of what is to come.
There are three points to make.
First, the Office for National Statistics has not tried to correct the misleading impressions in its statistics issues today. Indeed, there is no suggestion that furlough may be distorting data in their publication: they simply say furloughed people are employed.
Second, this helps no one.
Third, it gives rise to the entirely reasonable belief that the ONS is joining with the government in issuing fake news. Because that is what we got today. And that helps no one.
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Hello Richard. Wee typo above fig 2.
“The exception may be amongst the unemployed.”
Corrected
Thanks
[…] that they are only looking to create 100,000 jobs. Even todays completely understated unemployment data  suggests that 600,000 jobs have already been lost in the UK. In the circumstances these […]
Sorry to deviate from topic
Comments are closed on article : https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/05/31/why-i-am-worrying/ in whcih you wrote :
“If, as seems likely, we are the only country in Europe where this risk is real then we might suffer another and very real lockdown: other countries will close their borders with us, and quite reasonably so.”
Trending today, the UK as an _Exporter_ of Covid-19, to a country that had the political will to eliminate the virus : New Zealand
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/new-zealand-records-first-new-covid-19-cases-after-women-arrive-from-uk-carrying-virus
And a headline “Spain may quarantine British visitors in response to UK policy” (Policy or situation?)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/spain-may-quarantine-british-visitors-in-response-to-uk-policy-coronavirus
No mention, either, of the expected redundancies that will appear from about the end of June onwards as furlough winds down. Many business have already identified and probably given notice to staff that their jobs go with the end of furlough.
There does seem to be a general paralysis on the part of media journalists to identify what is already happening and what might come.
Emily Maitlis stands almost alone in highlighting a more truthful position. Remember her ‘great leveller’ intro to Newsnight when she said this virus hits the disadvantaged so much more than the rest of us? She has been criticised for ‘crossing the line’ – well I hope she tramps all over it.
Emily Maitliss has certainly been vindicated since her abrupt removal from presenting Newsnight for telling the truth about the pandemic in the UK and not cow-towing to the goverment line on Covid-19 policy. Lets hope that on tonight’s Newsnight she has a good go at exposing the cover up job that the ONS has done on the unemployment situation and stats.
My understanding is that to be furloughed you must be employed? What happens after furlough ends is another very serious matter, but I don’t see how ONS can guess how many furloughed people will lose their jobs.
They could at least highlight that it’s an issue and state how many are at risk
[…] the second day in a row we have the Office for National Statistics issuing almost meaningful comment on what is really […]