I am as bored by coronavirus speculation as anyone else.
I am also well aware that I am not an epidemiologist.
And I also readily admit that having, I am sure, had it, and being equally sure that all in my household have done so as well, makes me maybe a little more relaxed about coronavirus than I might otherwise be because our personal risk may be a little lower than average.
And all that being said, I want to put it on record that I am desperately worried about what is happening now with regard to the release of lockdown.
Government scientists are now openly saying that the current state of our containment of coronavirus is ‘fragile'.
There is some clear evidence that the number of hospital and ICU admissions now appear to be going up in England.
There is little evidence that R has been contained and may already be well over one in some places.
And yet lockdown appears, for all practical purposes, to be over as far as many people are concerned.
Back in March I remember being sure that herd immunity was the government's policy and that it was only the government's fear that people would not accept 500,000 or so deaths that made that pull back from letting the virus rip through the population then.
Since then people who have lost no-one have got used to thousands of deaths, almost daily.
And now it seems that as people's economic fears rise, and as their frustration with Cummings is uncontainable, that the policy for herd immunity is to now be that of the government again, as it always intended.
Certainly, it seems that medics fear that will be the case.
And even the epidemiologists who thought that this was a single bell curve event and that it would all be over by June are now showing signs of thinking a second wave is much more likely.
I fear it is.
And this time I fear three things.
The first is people won't lockdown again.
The second is that the NHS is now deeply fatigued, even if it knows much more than it did in March.
And third, I fear that the rate of infection will be very high and that the NHS could be overwhelmed, as last looked possible in late March before it was known that lockdown would really work.
Put those together and the fear is of a fourth thing, and that is what might be called a discontinuity. We have had a horrible number of excess deaths so far. But if the NHS is overwhelmed that gets much worse because the system of care breaks down. Reopening the Nightingales won't solve that. We'd just see the death toll rise. That's what the discontinuity of a breakdown does.
That's my big fear.
Or to put it another way, the eugenicists in the Cabinet and around it will have achieved their goal.
And there will be a price. If, as seems likely, we are the only country in Europe where this risk is real then we might suffer another and very real lockdown: other countries will close their borders with us, and quite reasonably so.
And before you say that does not matter, it does because just over half our food is imported. And we cannot do without it. But we might have to if things like the Channel Tunnel are shut to prevent contagion to the continent. I see this as a real possibility. I am sure the French are considering it. If they aren't, they're negligent and I doubt they are that.
I hope we will contain our anger sufficiently to direct it to the change we need if that happens. Because that is what we will need to do. But that is going to be a challenge if things get really bad.
I very, very much hope my fears are wrong about what is about to happen. I'll be very happy if people come back and say I worried unnecessarily. But the art of preparation is to worry about what is at least possible. And what I am suggesting looks possible, at the very least.
That's why I am worrying.
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Maybe this is how it will have to be – change will be brought about by a virus – not by having a shitty Government.
Death is a leveller.
My worry is that such disaster capitalists know how to make the most of such crises.
PSR you are right that some disaster capitalists will make money out of disaster, they are already are doing . On the flip side the worse it gets the more likely it is than many will reap the whirlwind and as you said earlier, lots of the people remaining will have their eyes opened, hopefully!
The food import point that Richard makes is a big risk should it arise. Both France and Spain have had it tough and will naturally not want to risk more infection. However they need our cash more than ever so I’d be surprised if they don’t find a way to sell their produce to us. The loss of the Russian market through sanctions was a massive loss to them because the Russians switched to home grown production and that market has gone for good. Would they really want to risk losing an even bigger export market? Hopefully not but who knows? One thing the pandemic has shown is that when push comes to shove EU members will do what they want, not what EU wants and France of course has previous with BSE.
As an example, my employer is opening up the office from Monday with a maximum capacity of a few hundred (about one in ten), but only if you want or need to come in, with places booked in advanced and heavily socially distanced. In time, the office capacity might increase to a quarter, but it is hard to see it going back to 100%, and we all have been and will continue to be working from home. Everyone I speak to is planning to work from home for the foreseeable future. Frankly, if it works, who wants to commute on public transport? In time, this could have a substantial impact on the demand for office space.
There is at least one example of borders being closed to the UK because the coronavirus situation here is so bad: Greece is opening up to tourists from most of Europe, but not from the UK. But who would want to travel, if you have to quarantine for 14 days on your return (not that it is enforceable).
Agreed
The situation is I agree grotesque. At present 8000 new infections a day (seems to be consistent with tracking studies), WHO now suggests a 3-5% mortality rate, with a baseline of 240 to 400 deaths per day in UK. The current view appears to be this is “acceptable” rather like the WW1 generals. Any even slight upwards movement would be catastrophic as there is no effective slack in the system.
Wellington used to measure his success in battles as to how quickly he could move troops to reserve status. With an exhausted hospital sector, a completely demoralised care sector, and the bulk of the population terrified over employment, childcare, care of family or even going out, the short term prospects are not good.
And then comes Brexit…
You got a source for the claim that half our food is imported.
I thought that in round numbers for every 77 units of domestic production, we exported about 17 and imported about 40, to give the 100 units required to satisfy our desires. Some of that 40 comes from the most excellent neo-liberal country of Ireland who are not likely to put barriers to trade in produce up (although movement of people might be discouraged)
And if we’re just going to satisfy our needs initially then I’m sure UK production can step up.
Anyway, just curious where you heard that over half of UK food was imported, as I would like to know the source.
Widely available
I do not recognise your data
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-global-and-uk-supply
But
“The 50% statistic underrepresents the reality, [HSBC analyst David] McCarthy says. In reality, “80% of food is imported into the UK,” he wrote. The lower number “defines food processed in the UK as UK food, even though the ingredients may have been imported. For example, tea is processed in the UK, but we grow no tea – it is all imported. When ingredients are counted as imported, the real figure is over 80%.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/no-deal-brexit-percentage-british-food-imported-shortages-2019-1
Scary….
Thanks
Thank you for that link Diana.
From that would you accept a revised round numbers estimate then that for every 70 units of domestic food production, we export about 17 and import about 47, to give the 100 units required to satisfy our desires?
The data cannot, I suggest, be extrapolated in that way
@SS, There you go: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply
Region Percentage supplied to the UK
UKa 50%
EU 30%
Africa 4%
North America 4%
South America 4%
Asia 4%
Rest of Europe 2%
Australasia 1%
Thanks
Appreciated
Sheldon Square,
I must ask you to forgive me, if it seems that I am ‘picking on’ your comment, but here is my problem, which is a more general issue, than it is about your particular contribution; but frankly it serves the purpose: which goes to the too frequent, lazy and inarticulate form in which comments are too often made on social media.
By all means challenge an informant on their sources; that is essential to extending and developing knowledge. However, if you are going to challenge, and you have the confidence to present a contradictory set of observations, then it is incumbent on you, ‘a fortiori’ to present the sources on which your evidence is based, and something that credibly looks to a careful reader, like ‘authority’, or at least plausibility.
“I thought that in round numbers for every…” followed by a ream of figures, with no source, no sign of the authority, just a motley collection of vague approximations of, wait for it, “units of domestic production”, whatever they are, pulled from heaven knows where; simply doesn’t cut it. Indeed your very choice of wording scarcely provides much confidence in the authority of the source from which it came. You may be right for all I know, in every particular; but how would I know, and why should I take such slapdash work seriously? Indeed I can scarcely understand why I have bothered…..
Forgive me, but several months of Johnson, Cummings and the assorted drivel that trails in their wake is beginning to test my patience, even on a beautiful day. Your comment came as an ill-timed reminder of slapdash government.
And now for a cup of coffee; if only it was a calming therapy …….
John
Thanks
I also think people can and even should use google sometimes…
And then argue if they find what is claimed is wrong
I am not faultless, I know
Richard
I suggest Sheldon reads Tim Lang’s book “Feeding Britain”… It’s stuffed full of data and it is clear that the UK food system is on a very shaky peg from a variety of aspects.
Tim is great
And a lovely guy to go with it
On topic. I too fear for what is coming down the tracks. The administration in the hands of Johnson/Cummings and the ERG ultras, are pushing the boundaries of what they can get away with. What has been the outcome of the rule breaking ‘traveling Skull’ – absolutely nothing!
Rees-Mogg is opening parliament with 50 (fifty!) attendees. How will that give us any oversight or scrutiny? Not even remote ‘Zoom’ participation as I understand.
And so it goes on, what would have been a sacking offence around 5 years back is now a daily occurrence. The same with the Covid-19 death toll.
I am not a epidemiologist either, but this is what I have learnt.
The gov never planned for herd immunity as such ,according to the official plan,once evidence came to light of “widespread sustained community tramsmission” of the virus …..”it will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic influenza virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so”. So the gov was to implement a policy whereby the virus would be allowed to spread (2011 Flu Pandemic Preparedness Strategy),and then contained as best as possible until a vaccine became available, but this was not for herd immunity puposes. Sadly we have not encountered a flu epidemic but instead were facing a much more virulent SARS pandemic,a virus for which the gov had no plan in place .So the gov was initially using the wrong plan for COVID19. It did not realise this until to late ,but there was nothing in place to fall back on. The gov had simply implemeted the ready made influenza plan to let the virus rip ,before it eventually realised that this was not a flu virus. Hence the need for lockdown ,which was never part of the original flu plan. We had no tests or PPE equipment ready either because that was never part of the flu plan,since we had no intention of stopping the virus. We should of course had both a SARS and flu plan according to the WHO,but over the years the SARS plan never materialised, we only got one for a flu pandemic.This was not a particular fault of the present gov, more a problem of our historic health planning.
Now we are playing catch up and trying to start test and trace in the middle of a pandemic,not an ideal situation. This will be a botched response in all likelihood,using poorly trained min wage call centre workers with poor test response times, where tests can be not always obtained when needed. We will be fighting a losing battle.
The break outs are in fact lots of local ones,not one national outbreak. So each outbreak has to be treated at local level but we do not have the local decion making processes to react well, since we have a very rigid centalised system trying(badly ) to micromanage every single issue and so failing to do anything correctly.
You still have every right to be worried.
I think you are being generous
By end Jan it was clear that this was not flu to many around the world
The capacity to appreciate that had, however, been dismantled in the UK
The result was dismal failure
I am not being generous at all. This is a failure od successive gov’s.
Yesterday I posted that this gov was guilty of criminally sending infected elderly patients into uprepared and wrongly advised care homes.
That charge has to be answered.
All I was doing here was addressing the herd immunity point,i.e there never was a herd immunity policy. Best get these things correct. But the gov has been appalingly bad on plenty other issues here.
We’ll have to disagree: I think the evidence for herd immunity is very, very strong
‘The break outs are in fact lots of local ones,not one national outbreak. So each outbreak has to be treated at local level but we do not have the local decion making processes to react well, since we have a very rigid centalised system trying(badly ) to micromanage every single issue and so failing to do anything correctly. ‘
It is this loss of local and regional capacity that has truly ‘hamstrung’ an intelligent response to the management of this pandemic. The fact that we have a national easing of the lockdown is based on what intelligence? I’d like to know since it completely fails to recognise the varying levels of infectivity across localities and regions. Had there been efforts to establish a local response immediately, which would have provided much intelligence on ‘hot spots’ and then appropriate quarantine measures put in place I doubt we’d be facing the fear of a second wave. This is not novel thinking this is standard public health practice.
IMHO it has been a scandal that the Govt’s response has been shaped from the outset by a lack of appropriate resources – a result of 10 years of hollowing out of the public sector, stripping it of its capacity and capability (knowledge, skills, expertise) coupled with a failure to adequately prepare and plan for what it knew was coming. It has betrayed the people of this country in its primary duty to protect them.
I am heartened by the fact that leading experts (note, not Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty) are now standing up and warning against easing of the lockdown measures in England. I am sickened by the response from those in Govt and the oft repeated phrase ‘we’re following the science’ when it’s clear that they are not and even now, do not have the means to intelligently do so.
Do I trust them to ensure our safety and security in all the dimensions these words cover? I do not. I think you are right to be fearful Richard. 🙁
Sheldon Square,
A House of Lords report “Brexit: food prices and availability”, published on the 18 May 2018, said: “30% of the food we eat in the UK comes from the EU, and another 20% comes from non-EU countries.”
However, according to David McCarthy, an analyst for HSBC (as quoted on the Business Insider website on 5 January 2019) the figure may well be over 80%, as much of what is commonly considered to be UK produced food is often food that is processed here but which relies on ingredients imported from abroad. I have no idea how true this is but if it is anywhere close to being accurate then this country may be facing a very grim future as a result of either the virus or Brexit or, as is most likely, both.
Steve M
Thanks
Looking at the Food Statistics Pocketbook, I see the 50% share is based on ‘farm gate value’. Given that I cook using pounds avoirdupois, rather than sterling, I’m wondering if that value basis should make me more or less worried.
The other thing that caught my eye today was https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/did-a-coronavirus-cause-the-pandemic-that-killed-queen-victorias-heir – suggesting that the ‘Russian’ Flu of 1890 was actually a coronavirus, and that, even if has transformed into a common cold variant, the additional death toll of subsequent waves in the next couple of years, on top of 1890, is worrying.
Ref food imports, especially from Europe, just stand on the White Cliffs of Dover and look down upon the port. Watching the lorries pouring in/out is like watching rows of ants.
There is a dreadful consequence of fear which I would characterise as despair…
For every problem, those we encounter or those we create, there is a solution. Ultimately, if we fail to grow up and deal with the chaos we have created the planet will create the necessary solution.
20% of the food we import is wine. WRAP estimates that 1 in every 5 shopping bags ends up in the garbage bin. The Department of International Trade estimates that food and drink exports in the first quarter of 2019 were £5.7bn. My guess is these facts should be added into the debate.
We cannot afford to let the head-in-a-bucket shower of incompetents that are in charge of parliament rule the roost.
Many of my clients and business associates are still working from home and a large proportion of those are seriously considering home working as a permanent feature of their working lives.
My son, a very able carpenter, has discovered the joys of an allotment. Spending his weekends growing veg and enjoying over the fence conversations with my generation of gardeners who are desperate to share their skills for his benefit.
We cannot, must not let our legacy be despair.
If we import too much food we should grow more of our own, reduce food waste, encourage farmers to grow more food, replant the orchards, turn grass slopes that face south into vineyards, reduce dependence on pre-processed food and learn to cook local produce.
What we need is what your blog provides, a place where ideas can be kicked around and solutions to urgent problems can start to see the light of day. The fact that there is a Luddite hierarchy who will resist with every ounce of their being to maintain the elitist status quo is no reason to stop the process or despair. Sooner or later, your thinking will have its day and who knows, perhaps your sons or their contemporaries will grasp the baton and head for the finishing line.
As evidenced by the raft of informed comments that every post inspires, what you are doing is working and I would assert, will make a difference in spite of the very evident indifference of those in charge of the asylum.
I hope you’re right Bob
I really do
I had an allotment for five or so years in London – was fantastic
Then I moved…