A week or so ago I was trying to persuade a journalist on a major newspaper that there might be 30% unemployment in the UK.
I estimated there were 6 million furloughed people then, and it turns out there are 6.3 million now.
I took existing unemployment and added at least 40% of the self-employed, who total more than 5 million. I may have underestimated with 40%. The total came to 9 million, which is about 30% of the workforce.
Now the Guardian has published this chart of forecast unemployment by area of the UK, based on estimates by the Royal Society of Arts:
This also suggests that there could easily be 30% unemployment in the UK.
We have never experienced anything like this.
This crisis has a very, very long way to go as yet and it seems that almost no one in government gets what that means.
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agree. I live in Oxford, and whilst lowest in list above (which I actually doubt knowing the industry/job mix and number of HE jobs and related publishing, that are outside of Oxford Uni), 19% would be unthinkable when there has essentially been almost full employment since the recession of early 90’s. And for the 70% in work, with the exception of NHS, teachers and police who I imagine secure, the rest of the workforce and everyone in private sector will be left wondering if they are next. Net, all but some very fortunate public sector workers, will either be unemployed or fearing unemployment..
Already we are seeing that causal work is going to under 20s (students) as minumn wage lower, and most other jobs apprenticies. Anyone 40+ is going to be in very difficult situation and those 50+ will find it nigh impossible to find employment – important that as we think wealth taxes, there is a link to employment income e.g. avoid situation where wealth tax but not ability to pay when wealth in pensions that cannot yet be accessed.
Scary times…all the more reason for govt NOT to be concerned re spending and print money
Richard
Your understanding of the current crisis and proposals to tackle and deal with the issues and problems that we are all facing as a direct result of the pandemic and the risks that will need to be addressed in the future, is (and has been) spot on throughout.
I could list so many examples by way of evidence and proof. To name just a few, your calls for a 3mth rent holiday for tenants, 100% govt back guaranteed loans, urgent need to deal with car financing, unemployment, the list goes on.
I also recall the abuse and awful responses and comments that you recieved from landlords and others at the time you wrote the piece on rent holidays. As can be seen from searching the archives, you made the proposal very early on (4 March – which was before the actual lockdown). I can only assume that the individuals who were completely against the idea and made it very clear what they thought (see their comments and posts) are now somewhat slightly embarassed and look foolish (to say the least).
The point is that the insight you give (and have given on major issues) through your work, blog, interviews, research, academic papers etc is there for all to see and assess for themselves – the facts cannot be disputed.
I also know you dont gloat or boast – its not your style or purpose which is to be admired (especially in this day and age).
As is clearly evident, the govt’s repsonse to the crisis is (to put it lightly) inadequate and is costing lifes, jobs, and incomes. If nothing is done soon, the govt’s strategy will lead to even more destruction, massive irreversible damage and all round catastrophe. If only certain actions were taken at the time that you had advocated who knows, businesses/jobs (and dare I say it lives) could have been saved.
The reason for posting this comments is that I hope many readers of this blog and the wider audience out there, share my views. If so, its time that this was acknowledged (in whatever fashion people deem to be fit) so that you get a better sense of how critically important it is for everyone that you continue writing, sharing and giving your views.
Thanks Eric
Richard
The Times has said the country has become addicted to govt payout schemes. So the Chancellor is going to cut the bailout schemes to show them pesky lazy brits you have to get back to work. Your thoughts on this!. Me I see massive disaster coming of epic proportions. Ideology is kicking in again.
https://twitter.com/AdamShorts2/status/1257952781534744576/photo/1
Coming…
Richard
I agree that this crisis has a very very long way to go.
But I am not so sure that nobody in government gets what that means. They may have a different view of the possibilities and the risks. Somebody with a partisan view of the world will think how can we make this work to our advantage or minimise the risk. Its fair to say that there are a number of such characters with power or influence in Whitehall.
Millions of unemployed could be seen as not a threat if they can be kept fairly docile in a state of lockdown or there is the projection of better times ahead as the current arrangements are relaxed. There is no coherent political alternative or challenge after the comprehensive defeat of Labour last year.
Government has a de facto hegemony over the messaging and the communication. After reading your piece, I went on the BBC website to try and identify what the current rate of unemployment is and I struggled to find any hard information (although the BBC were very helpful in drawing my attention to the number of new claims for unemployment in the USA), instead there was a puff piece about the record numbers of people in work just before the start of this crisis.
And don’t forget, others can be a potential source of blame. (There is a growing body of opinion/analysis/news that is lining up China). Or a useful distraction (eg; the old).
I agree with you: the government has no clue hat is coming
I have a blog coming…
It’s scaring me…
David, bit disturbed why people use BBC website as a ‘go-to’ place for facts.
Maybe I’m simply ‘jaded of Scotland’ we are well aware of things left out, twisted, just plain lies.
but ignoring that!
as a retired information handler ( libraries and archives ) may I urge you to go to the source or numbers etc. not somewhere there is an added layer of bias/spin/agenda . Office of National Statistics keeps all the numbers you could possibly want and it is where the Beeb get theirs from anyway – but then they’comment’ additionally – maybe I just like to do my own thinking? Actually, how I was taught to do.
Type in ‘UK unemployment figures’ to any reputable tax-paying search engine ( I use Duck Duck Go ) and the ONS should really come up top answer – below whatever ad is planted.
As a retiree from Northern Ireland, I have my own scepticism about authority and official sources.
I was thinking about those who place their trust in the BBC as a source of news (as opposed to the London-based press) and trying to get into the mindset of the 50 per cent plus who currently support the Conservatives, I decided to do a brief search as to how easy or difficult it would be to discover the current unemployment stats from the BBC site. And plenty of spin, but little in the way of factual information.
Unemployment could quite easily be 30%. The UK relies heavily on services and services rely on people meeting people. Many retail outlets will not reopen as a greater number move to online shopping with knock on effects on cleaners, window cleaners, shop workers, councils and dare I say it landlords. Hospitality and the arts will struggle into next year and many will not reopen. Students coming out of Universities and schools will struggle to find employment in what will become a scramble for few places.
The government will need to address what is likely to be a catastrophe and will need to move into mass job creation such as in education, research, health and social care, aid for manufacturing and green energy. The beneficiaries of the disaster such as the online retailers, pharma and others will need by and large to pay for the redistribution of wealth to those who have lost their livelihoods through no fault of their own.
I see Rishi is already muttering about the cost being unsustainable but he ain’t seen nothing yet.
You are right
A big post on this is coming…
I noted the countries who will not be cooperating on a vaccine – Russia, India, China, America – all of whom want to monetise it.
Who are UK seeking to do trade deals with?
We are truly up sh#t street without a paddle.
So what’s the alternative? What really is worrying me is the prospect that this could have been done so differently. The German study I see put the virus fatality rate at 0.36%. I’d never heard of the 1960s Hing Kong flu outbreaks until my mother told me about them last night and how they handled that situation. I just have this nagging suspicion that if this was 1970 we probably wouldn’t even be having this discussion – maybe I’m wrong.
If it does turn out that we unnecessarily smashed the world I dread to think what the reaction will be.
Do not worry the bbc has spoken and all business will be back on track within 3 weeks to. Yep nothing to worry about, it is all fine, them business that have closed or ran out of money but trying to get a govt loan, will bounce back like Captain Britain with massive superpowers. We can do this because we are british and god is an englishman. So scots, irish, welsh, god is definitely an englishman. Pip pip !
I’ll ask the obvious question: are these figures for the UK or really just for England on its own? The two are often conflated in news bulletins, media articles and even UK Gov statements and reports, and all the areas cited are in England.
These are England, I think