As I noted yesterday, the government's furlough scheme has been extended from 31 May to 30 June. The logic for doing so was very simple. If it had not been millions of people would have started receiving redundancy notices yesterday. Official unemployment in this country would have skyrocketed, as it is in the USA. But this now raises profoundly difficult questions that will not be avoidable for long.
The first is that what this single act proves is that many of those furloughed are actually unemployed. Many are unlikely to have jobs to go back to. The government knows that. That is why they had to avoid them being declared redundant. So how do we now define unemployment?
Second, when is this going to be acknowledged?
Third, when in that case is the paradoxical requirement that those furloughed do absolutely nothing going to be removed when it is an absolute requirement that those unemployed work flat out to get work?
Fourth, when is the massive inequality of treatment between those furloughed and those unemployed going to be addressed? For how long can we tolerate the gross injustice of a two-tier unemployment system that pays some under £100 a week and others up to six times that sum?
Fifth, will that be when furloughing employers go bust anyway, come what may, and their staff then move to universal credit, which will create mass poverty on a scale most have been able to ignore to date amongst those on this benefit?
Sixth, is anyone thinking about this in government, at all?
Seventh, where is Labour on this issue?
Eighth, and the SNP, come to that?
The idea that we are somewhat all going back to work soon is, in reality, fading fast: Grant Shapps has now said no one should plan on a summer holiday this year. This is the clearest sign that the government knows that the real reopening of our economy is not going to be happening anytime soon. And yet a game with massive social, economic and political injustice implicit in it is being played out in front our your eyes when what is required is real and radical reform to recognise that the issues coronavirus is creating are not going away any time soon.
Someone has to take a lead here. I will keep talking tax, but this is a crisis waiting to happen.
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This morning in the Guardian I read about the Northern Right Whale – they are being ran down by shipping and killed by fishing nets – apparently there are only around 400 left.
What a marvellous job opportunity to create – to deal with these issues – ridding the world’s oceans of nets, hoovering up rubbish, policing the seas so shipping can avoid these gentle beasts older than us in terms of living on the planet.
There is so much work to be done to correct our poisoning and rendering of this planet as lethal to its inhabitants but so little imagination in being willing to do it. There’s loads of work to be done – a life’s work in dealing with the environment – it’s about time we did it rather than treating it as something to be dealt with by fundraising NGOs.
As you have repeatedly pointed out, looking after the environment is an economic growth area for God’s sake. As a housing developer, I watch nonplussed as I see green belt land lost forever to executive homes whilst no one wants to take on the cost to remediate ex-industrial land for redevelopment.
It’s crazy. Beyond stupid.
We reside in a plutocractic kakistocracy Richard.
The Government strategy is:
1) To ride out the storm
2) Promise whatever needs to be said to keep populace from panicking about the uncertain future.
3) Deal with the disastrous economic aftermath in a haphazard way as & when/if it materialises.
4) With ‘inisder’ knowledge of future decisions to be made, ensure that a small clique of society kept in ‘the know’ profit tremendously from whatever actions are taken & policies constructed henceforth. (US Senator’s scandal is evidence here)
5) In the aftermath, attempt to use this as an opportunity to reform/reshape/remeld society in some advantageous way to those who are primed to benefit; maybe not the majority.
* So far looking like a re-run of the last financial crisis with the Banks hoarding £ provided by Government.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/17/bank-of-england-tells-lenders-to-get-on-with-covid-19-business-loans?fbclid=IwAR3kzkzxSovSsdRLO7-AA87ljOjTtEqgDExvyAvf92n2SAoeeOVyMQUdczk
Delay the process as long as possible & improve balance sheet in process ?
Call me a cynic…
Cynic
But quite probably right
At least we still have our sense of humour Richard, once that leaves us then we are truly doomed!
Some musings for solutions, which is far more useful than just potential outcomes.
1) You may recall I mentioned a one-off grant, NOT UBI, to the sum of approximately £4850 to every person in the UK to see them through this period of turmoil & uncertainty.
Direct payments to the people is the only option to future-proof the situation throughout society.
Everyone gets a HM Government Issued Pre-paid Card with £ on it + or digital version attached to Government Gateway ID (if they have one)
2) If this crisis of belief & confidence continues then this may well NOT be sufficient.
https://futurism.com/the-byte/congress-proposes-paying-americans-2000-per-month
This idea from Congress might well be our solution as well to maintain a fair degree of solvency for the majority of the populace for 6 months (?)
3) If HM Government MUST profit from this catastrophe, then at least make ALL money available to businesses 50% – 50% split. A Loan & Grant Hybrid if you will.
4) Grant provided first, then Loan after a certain period of time, with deferment of interest period of 6 months.
5) If the Banks & ‘Delivery Partners’ MUST be the ones to provide this stimulus to business, then we need STRICT & RIGOROUS penalties directed at those responsible for those organisations delivering the £.
6) Then there WILL be an incentive for £ to flow to where it is needed expeditiously, lest those responsible wish to suffer the wrath of UNLIMITED financial penalty & immense pecuniary damage for impeding & obstructing what is required for the good of the nation.
7) Might be a bit antiquated, but lands could also be confiscated under certain powers by Government as an ‘inducement’ to ensure that there is no dereliction of duty by those who are holding the purse strings.
8) £ Distribution will then be prompt, one is quite certain, because if not, there is a huge disincentive to contend with, which might well make someone homeless & penniless. Hence, they will think twice.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-england-20704588/britain-s-new-homeless-banker-sleeps-rough-in-park
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/special-report-homeless-banker-hits-rock-bottom-8395997.html
9) A prospect that will ensure everything runs smoothly.
I welcome radical thinking
I think there have to be limits to the rate of change as well….
Surely by now it’s impossible to be overcynical regarding the competence and intentions of the people who control things?
The Govt has underplayed the crisis from the very first and continues to do so. Every action is actually a reaction to a worsening situation. They are afraid of the truth and examining it in public would lead to the kind of debate you are leading taking place in the mainstream media and that would be a disastrous exposure of this ‘government’. So little by little the response changes and the Govt narrative is that we are responding rationally to the crisis. People are expected to forget the long game and focus on the issue of the day. Sadly, that thinking has worked for them many times before.
If, as the WHO are now saying, antibody testing is not proof of future immunity, and that we will have to await a vaccine to achieve herd immunity, then the end is possibly more than a year away. Even more if the view that a vaccine may not even be possible is correct.
The Govt are betting that as the situation changes, the public perception changes. The opposition parties are not playing this well. Keir Starmer’s demands for the exit strategy to be published are naïve to say the least. He probably knows that there’s not one, and possibly can’t be one until we know about what, if any, immunity is given after recovery from the disease. What he and other leaders should be doing is demanding the truth and leading a debate about the kind of society we want in the future. They should be robustly challenging the “we can all go back to normal” line.
I think Starmer needs a reboot already
He’s played that card
It’s time for big thinking…..
Clive Lewis was the only potential leadership candidate who showed any potential for the big thinking required.
Don’t like to cry over spilt milk, but I am still furious that he did not receive sufficient PLP support to get on the ballot.
Doesn’t appear that Starmer’s given him a role in his shadow opposition team. Am I wrong on this and if not what is this saying about Starmer?
Since I have discussed this with him I do not think I can comment
I still think that the most positive answer would be to introduce a UBI. I know that you have highlighted administrative problems with this, Richard, but it surely should be easy enough to cover the bulk of people registered for PAYE, self-employed tax-payers, pensioners and those receiving benefits via Universal Credit or the previous tax credit system.
There will be those who fall outside this system with no NI registration etc but those people have to apply in person for benefits anyway and UBI could be made available to them at this time if they are eligible.
I am sure that the bulk of our population could deal with this Coronavirus problem with a lot more confidence if the immediate financial worries were taken away, or at least reduced.
As a solution this is now growing in appeal
In the short term it could not work
Now we need to make it do so
@CathyS
Couldn’t agree more. I’m not a member but my partner was going to back him, ended up not voting.
Quite right to raise questions about the performance so far of Labour and the SNP. It is nothing short of astonishing that the Libdems are using the excuse of the pandemic to defer their leadership election to 2021. Does anyone know of any meaningful intervention by their two ‘acting leaders’?
I am pleased to see some fellow Clive Lewis supporters here.