What does one say about a general election? Essentially, that it was inevitable. But, I stress, only because that is the way the Tories have played it.
From making Europe an issue when no one was previously concerned about it; to having a referendum that took a long time to excite; to not knowing what to do when they lost it; to calling red lines that made no sense; to having a general election that resulted in rejection; to making unholy deals with the DUP; to presenting a Deal that appeased almost no one; to then holding a leadership election; to then not negotiating; to proroguing parliament unnecessarily and illicitly; to having a meaningless Queen's Speech; to presenting another deal few could abide; to now calling an election that looks like an act of further desperation; the message from the government is clear even if every word will deny it: the Tories will do anything to avoid facing three real issues.
The first is the consequence of their own decisions in government. Austerity was unnecessary, and a disaster unless your goal was to shrink the role of government and create misery, stress and a decline in the quality of every public service when the demand was, of course, that things got better. As a distraction Brexit has been a gift that just keeps giving when it comes to the denial of the incompetence of Cameron and Osborne and all who have followed in their path.
Second, the Tories cannot face the fact that the model in which they have placed their faith for well over a generation - and to which many of them have never experienced an alternative - is broken beyond repair. Neoliberalism died in 2008 and should have been buried. This model of trickle (or even flood) up economics was proven not to work, unless creating instability, social tension, excessive private debt, inequality and social injustice alongside business with almost no incentive to really innovate on any issue bar tax and regulatory avoidance was the goal.
And third? That is the Tory's own reluctance to govern. You can't eventually argue for small government, leaving everything to the market and letting ‘the people' (or, at least, those with fat wallets) decide and actually govern. The paradox of doing so eventually, and inevitably, conflicts with your beliefs in that case. So you really needed something to distract from your lack of wiling to do anything. And Brexit is it for the UK's Tories, who have a contempt for the posts that they now hold (and enjoy, if only for the gravy train they promise to them, as Ruth Davidson has so inelegantly shown) that knows no limit.
So what is the worst outcome of this election for the Tories and Johnson as their archetypal leader par excellence, in that of all of them he has least conviction in his capacity to govern and most in his ability to blame? That would be winning, outright. Because that would mean there could be no more excuses.
They would have to do a job.
They would have to divide the UK as is now the Unionist Brexit promise.
It would mean delivering lower living standards.
And even worse public services.
It would mean business failures.
It will mean they are responsible for the next banking crisis.
It will mean that they have to explain that Brexit actually means having to do a deal with the EU that might require freedom of movement, an effective customs union and the reality of single market rules if we are to get market access.
And it will mean explaining that any freedom for bankers to pursue tax haven policies will come at the cost of restrictions and loss to ordinary people.
Do any of the Tories really have the appetite for the grief this will cause them? I fear Raab, Truss and Javid are deluded enough to think they have. But Johnson? I don't see it. Because I see no conviction in him at all. And in that divide is the Tory weakness.
The trouble for Johnson is that the people might not see his fear of winning. They might give him a majority after all.
I suggest this is an election Johnson wants, but wants to lose, whilst having most seats. Prevarication suits him well. My only concern is that he may not get what he really wants.
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Very well and eloquently said Richard, I believe this to be true.
Well, except for your use of ‘illegal’ – it was unlawful, a civil legal decision. One day I’ll get you to read up on your constitutional law, it’s a fascinating world, honestly.
Point accepted
Illicit, I’d say…
You may be well be right about the PM’s fear of winning an overall majority. There is a lingering suspicion that Gove’s late entry in to the Tory leadership race in 2016 was a ploy to provide some cover for him bottling it.
I also share your concern that he may win an overall majority. He knows, or should know, that agreeing the EU withdrawal terms is the easy bit. Securing a future relationship that minimises the damage of Brexit is nigh impossible. He doesn’t want to have the sole responsibility for the next 5 years. He would much prefer to have a hung parliament that he can rail against – with the Tories being the largest party.
The odds are split between a small Tory majority and a hung parliament with only a combination of Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP capable of providing a governing majority.
Everything that favoured Labour in 2017 has gone into reverse. This will be primarily a Brexit election. The Tories are offering a done withdrawal deal; the Lib Dems want to revoke Article 50. Proposing a further extension, a negotiation and revised withdrawal terms that will be put to the people, while perfectly rational, will get short shrift from the voters. In any event, the EU may not want to play ball. Labour will struggle to secure traction for its non-Brexit policy agenda. And while it is laudable and very necessary it is full of holes that will be cruelly exposed. The shadow cabinet, with a few notable expections, is indeed a pale shadow of the competence and capability of those in exile on the backbenches. The wind is in the sails of the Lib Dems, while they were dormant in 2017. And then there is Jeremy Corbyn.
This is a thought-provoking blog but it is ruined by some dreadful typos, including one at the end of para 2 that destroys the whole sense of it. Please read over your blogs much more carefully before posting them, Richard – you undermine your own credibility.
It may annoy a few, I accept
And if this was my whole-time job I’d agree
That was my thinking before breakfast
Writing “will do anything to face” when you mean “will do anything to avoid facing” is not just “annoying” to a few, Richard. But thank you for such a gracious reply.
I write a great many words, very quickly
I make mistakes
Sorry
Read the content, understand the ideas,ignore the occasional errors in punctuation, orthography, syntax. Leonardo was a great genius: have you seen his writing? Would you criticise his work simply because he was dyslexic?
I doubt I am dyslexic
But few of us are really good editors, especially of our own work
We see what we thought we wrote
And you should see the first drafts!
“Leonardo was a great genius: have you seen his writing? ”
Leonardo was left handed. If you are left handed and write in the “normal” manner (from left to right) with a fountain or reed pen all you do is leave a large smear across the page, so he wrote the other way. Lots of us lefties can do it.
It’s all perfectly legible to right handers if read by means of a mirror.
I have a left handed son…
It’s another world
[…] Johnson would really rather lose this election, but may not get what he wants Tax Research UK […]
[…] Johnson would really rather lose this election, but may not get what he wants Tax Research UK […]
I agree with John Crace about Johnson.
It is all about him – Johnson. As long as he can copy Winston’s poses in front of the mirror and rage and ruminate at the despatch box like Winston, Johnson is a happy bunny in his own little world fulfilling his destiny.
I’m not sure he is aware of anything else to be honest. And once he has had enough, and because he is a lazy bastard, he will just get out, go back to his highly paid job at the Torygraph and Leave the likes of Raab and Patel in charge.
It’s a horrific scenario – and it is quite possible, it really is. Johnson simply does not care about anyone but himself.
Brexit the end result is all about the enclosure of Switzerland by the EU. End of tax evasion, money laundering and some anon ownerships.
So repatriate to the UK and prey upon the EU.
Brexit “The Process” is all about currency movements and timing. Much dinero being made.
Possible to destroy the evasion industry? Then join th Euro and remain. Not much chance of that before the banking crash?
I have to say that I do n9t think this is all Brexit is about
There is simply no evidence for that
But is it useful to those who want to evade? Maybe
But you forget the EU is far from alone in tackling these issues
Your piece suggests that the Tories have been a failure, but I don’t think they see it that way. After all they have succeeded in what they set out to do: creating lots of well paid jobs at the top of Academies, Health care providers, Transport monopolies and so on. Everyday they have stayed in government more assets have been sold and public contracts doled out. It’s been a triumph, if you just look at in a different way. The Tories want to stay in power to continue with this success story, the issues that you have raised are not ones they care about.
I’m not sure that for Johnson his ego would allow for anything less than winning. I’m reminded of that video where playing rugby he runs over a Japanese child in what is clearly a publicity photo shot. For Johnson, the red mist probably comes over the eyes and he has to be no 1. He has classic psychopathic tendencies. However, I do think that victory for him would be of the Pyrrhic type. Short term satisfaction in winning would soon turn to long term reality. I think it would mean the following.
1) Johnson and the Tories would have to take ownership and responsibility for Brexit. When things go wrong they will still try to blame others, especially Johnny Foreigner, but it will wear thin as time go by. He will back stab as he always does.
2) He will destroy the Tory Party as a one nation party. We are already seeing that with entryism and expulsion of moderate mps. The Tory Party is increasingly Brexit Party lite, less tolerant of other views. Tory supporters that consider themselves as more moderate may soon be looking for a new home once the reality of the right wing agenda hits.
3) Corbyn stands down. If Labour are to get a majority again they need to win over middle England. Blair did this by stealing the Tories clothes which basically gave him 3 landslides. Also worth noting that Blair won 56, 56 and 41 seats in Scotland. Labour vote and seat count in Scotland has since collapsed to the SNP. Difficult to see how they win that back. Corbyn is easy meat for the right wing and its supporting media, as was Michael Foot. I fancy if Labour were going into this election with Starmer as leader they would have a better chance, if only because he carries less baggage.
4) Many of the 51.7% that voted for Brexit will wind up disappointed and the victims of what happens next. In part this will be due to the fact that Brexit is essentially a libertarian right wing, ideological desire as can by seen by the fact that 99% of the talking heads that you see supporting it are of that persuasion. You don’t see many centrists or from the left shouting hard for Brexit in the same way. I can only think of Kate Hoey. Clearly, not all of the 51.7% are of the libertarian right wing bent, if they were UKIP would have won an election by now. Many will soon change their tune if the NHS is sold off, or the welfare state and public services are cut further.
5) The political elite that want Brexit are every bit a part of an elitist establishment as the remainers they attack. No one will convince me that the likes of Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Farage, etc are not “establishment” or that they are men of the people. Their elitism will eventually backfire on them.
6) Polling suggests that there is less support for the rigid 2 party ways of the past, especially with the young. This is fertile ground for the opposition to exploit once we get the fall out from Brexit.
7) The potential break up of the UK Union and what Johnson will do.
Anyway, those are just a few ideas of what may happen. While I don’t support Brexit, part of me now feels that it actually happening is the only way for the UK to see the truth and consequences of what it really means. I’m sure that like a nuclear bomb dropping there will be plenty of fall out.
Thanks
I know that seats won is what matters, not votes won, in our foolish electoral system, but the fact that under Blair Labour won three landslides by “stealing the Tories’ clothes” and “winning over Middle England” may lead to false conclusions. The largest share of the UK vote that “New Labour” won was 43.2% in 2001, which then declined to 40.7%, 35.2% and 29%, before rallying a little to 30.4% under the man the tabloids called “Red Ed”.
Corbyn (despite his obvious shortcomings) and McDonnell, rejecting the Tories’ clothes entirely and being unashamedly “old Labour”, won 40% of the UK vote. (I can’t quickly find the percentages excluding Scotland and Northern Ireland, but the upturn in England and Wales must be about 1 percentage point or so higher given the historic collapse of Labour’s vote north of the border.)
The dilemma for the left as I see it is this: what this country needs is a rejection of neoliberal (and, while we are about it, neoconservative) dogma. Corbyn/McDonnell would give us that, but can they win power? Starmer or someone similar could win power, but would they even want to cut us free from the Thatcherite consensus? The unrelenting, almost universal hostility of the corporate media and the establishment to Corbyn suggests that any abandonment of that consensus will have to be very hard fought for.
And what are you projecting this time?
I haven’t a clue — but I’m cautiously hopeful. There are so many variables and unknowns that it’s impossible even to guess at the outcome, isn’t it? But I do think the media have (once again) underestimated Labour’s campaigning machine, and the fact that (as before) when people actually hear what Corbyn has to say for himself, they like him a lot more than they did when they just read about him in the tabloids or listened to the BBC’s insidious spin against him. I also suspect that Johnson, in his own, different way, may, like May, have overestimated his attractiveness to the general public.