Where did the Lib Dem votes in Brecon and Radnorshire come from?

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A commentator who has, over a long period, used the name Dungroanin, just posted this on the blog and I thought it worth sharing, just as he or she wrote it:

Been doing a bit of assessment of the election as the cricket is not as enthralling!

Looking at the last 3 elections in in 4 years in the Brecon seat is a lot more informative than the pollsters.

Turnout — 2015,17,19 respectively
40k(73.8%), 41.3k(76.9%), 31.8k(60%) -all notable for being high, well done these voters.

Comparing the various years and looking at absolute numbers (some rounding)

1. 2017 to 2015
1.3 k increased turnout.

Tories gained 3.5k
Libdems gained 0.7k
Lab gained 1.4k
= 5.6k
Plaid lost 0.4k
Ukip lost 2.8k
Greens lost 1.2k
= 4.4k

It would seem fair to conclude:
that most ukip went back to their traditional parties;
Some plaid and green went libdem.
New voters mostly likely went to Tories and Labour in that order.

2. 2019 compared to 2015
8k decreased turnout

Tories lost 4.1k
Lab lost 4.2k
Ukip lost 3k
Plaid lost 1.7k
Greens lost 1.2k
= 14.2k

Lib dems gained 2.5k
Brexit gained 3.3k
= 5.8k

It would be fair to say all ukip went to Brexit;

It would also seem that most of the no-shows are Labour and Tory and some greens and plaid;

Some labour, tory and most plaid and green made up the Libdem gain.

3. 2019 compared to 2017
10k reduced turnout.

Cons down 8k
Lab down 5.6k
Plaid down 1.3k
Ukip down 0.25k
= 15.15k
Brexit gained 3.3k
Libdem gained 1.8k
= 5.2k

So the 2015 kippers who went elsewhere in 2017 (back to their traditional parties) this time went to Brexit.

Most labour and many Tories didn’t turnout.

Where did that extra 1800 vote for libdems come from?
Mostly from plaid and greens obviously, from their electoral pact.
So only a few hundreds from Lab and Tories.


In my opinion a general election now would most likely follow the same pattern as scenario 1.

Most Brexit will revert to their traditional vote.

Most stay at homes will revert to their traditional vote.

Libdems will only benefit from the local representatives popularity.

The outcome will be determined by turnout. A high turnout will favour Labour. A lower one will favour Tories.