This was the election result from Brecon and Radnorshire:
Are there any messages? I think so.
First, UKIP is dead, beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party.
Second, if we generously assume that Labour is a Remain party, the bote splits 48.8% remain, 50.3% Leave. So not much has changed.
Third, Boris was a facto. Wait until fuel prices increase in the next week or so and then see whether that remains the case, because he will be the sole reason for that.
Fourth, strategic alliances work. The Greens and Plaid Cymru played their part in this victory. It may not have happened without them.
Fifth, Labour needs to learn that lesson very rapidly, but won't. Just as it will not decide if it is a Remain party, or not
Sixth, we remain in hung parliament territory. The Boris factor is not big enough to change that. Ad of he could not win this, he never will.
In summary, the country remains as divided as ever and our voting system cannot handle this.
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I agree fundamentally with you conclusions.
I must say however, that Labour is BOTH a Leave and Remain party and that has been the case since we first went into Europe. This Toxy (sic) made BREXIT is undermining Labour party unity too. What we are seeing in Labour may not be stupidity but an attempt to keep it together – albeit flawed. But pro and anti EU sentiment has always existed in Labour as well as the Toxies – it is not just because of BREXIT.
As you have said, Labour’s acceptance of the splitting effect may be the problem. They are helping to realise the collateral damage of BREXIT. They should indeed seriously consider going for broke and declare for remain with a convincing explanation for why.
I wonder if they are listening to Mark Carney? And they should also be looking at how the USA is dealing with China at the moment. Do we want to be bullied too by the U.S. when it does not get its way?
The LibDems are not to be trusted. Their time in government was a disaster for the country. Nothing says ‘what heart felt political principals’ like a government salary.
If they repented and critique their own record then it would be worth listening to them.
Shall we start with the premise that no party is to be trusted because they all seem to be morphing all the time?
Labour is not what it was in 2014, nor the Tories or LibDems
As far as I can tell the SNP might be
Plaid, the Greens and maybe the NI parties are
But let’s not pretend the LibDems are alone in changing spots, often
I do agree. I have a specific beef with the LibDems though because I predicted their sharing a bed prior to it. Most people who read the Orange book did also.
Right now its easy to get sucked into the remain and leave debate without understanding what brought us here.
I accept that point: the Orange Book was dire and I too have reservations
But would I vote Lib Dem as the best way to beat Brexit if I had to? Yes, is the answer
Your fourth lesson I like best, a Remain Alliance is possible everywhere if politicians put people’s long term interests before their own party’s short term gains.
Plaid, the Greens and LibDems did the trick here, and I applaud them.
They also show that a coalition can work at electoral level, so why not at government level?
As for the Tories, the smaller villages around Brecon & Builth were showing promising results for them last night, the farmers’ vote was clearly on their side, being flattered by Johnson’s visit at the Royal Welsh a couple of weeks ago, promising all sorts of bribes as usual. Yet they didn’t get propped up by him this time as he didn’t bother turning up to give them a boost. All the better. The man cannot be asked to do his job properly, and that will help the rest of us to get him out if we regroup. And we can do this.
Thanks
On the plus side, history tells us that if the LibDems go into coalition as the junior partner, they pretty much well do as they are told by the larger party.
Perhaps a hung parliament with Labour winning more seats than the Tories might not be such a bad thing? 😉
Yeah, I know. No guarantee that a ‘Boris Bounce’ (sorry if that sounds a bit rude) might leave the Tories with most seats in which case we would really be in hung parliament territory as I don’t think the LibDems would be daft enough to jump into bed with them again, especially with Brexit in mind.
Been doing a bit of assessment of the election as the cricket is not as enthralling!
Looking at the last 3 elections in in 4 years in the Brecon seat is a lot more informative than the pollsters.
Turnout – 2015,17,19 respectively
40k(73.8%), 41.3k(76.9%), 31.8k(60%) -all notable for being high, well done these voters.
Comparing the various years and looking at absolute numbers (some rounding)
1. 2017 to 2015
1.3 k increased turnout.
Tories gained 3.5k
Libdems gained 0.7k
Lab gained 1.4k
= 5.6k
Plaid lost 0.4k
Ukip lost 2.8k
Greens lost 1.2k
= 4.4k
It would seem fair to conclude:
that most ukip went back to their traditional parties;
Some plaid and green went libdem.
New voters mostly likely went to Tories and Labour in that order.
2. 2019 compared to 2015
8k decreased turnout
Tories lost 4.1k
Lab lost 4.2k
Ukip lost 3k
Plaid lost 1.7k
Greens lost 1.2k
= 14.2k
Lib dems gained 2.5k
Brexit gained 3.3k
= 5.8k
It would be fair to say all ukip went to Brexit;
It would also seem that most of the no-shows are Labour and Tory and some greens and plaid;
Some labour, tory and most plaid and green made up the Libdem gain.
3. 2019 compared to 2017
10k reduced turnout.
Cons down 8k
Lab down 5.6k
Plaid down 1.3k
Ukip down 0.25k
= 15.15k
Brexit gained 3.3k
Libdem gained 1.8k
= 5.2k
So the 2015 kippers who went elsewhere in 2017 (back to their traditional parties) this time went to Brexit.
Most labour and many Tories didn’t turnout.
Where did that extra 1800 vote for libdems come from?
Mostly from plaid and greens obviously, from their electoral pact.
So only a few hundreds from Lab and Tories.
—-
In my opinion a general election now would most likely follow the same pattern as scenario 1.
Most Brexit will revert to their traditional vote.
Most stay at homes will revert to their traditional vote.
Libdems will only benefit from the local representatives popularity.
The outcome will be determined by turnout. A high turnout will favour Labour. A lower one will favour Tories.
Nos going up as a blog-post
Thanks
*blush*
🙂
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