As the Guardian has reported, the government is still refusing to confirm its intention to scrap up to 90% of tariffs after Brexit. There is good reason for it not doing so.
First, to admit this is to also admit that the UK is not ready for Brexit. The means to collect many tariffs that should be owing will not exist when Brexit happens. In other words, the government has failed to plan for the outcome it will be delivering.
But, second, and much more importantly, they are not admitting this because very large numbers of jobs will be threatened by scrapping tariffs. The fact is that whilst we might have free trade with the EU we do not with many other nations on earth for very good reason. The tariffs we impose protect UK jobs. Remove the tariffs and those jobs disappear. The biggest gainer will be China, of course.
The government is, unsurprisingly reluctant to admit that this is what free trade means. And that what bringing back control means in the context of Brexit is giving away the jobs of very large numbers of British people in agriculture and manufacturing, in particular.
The backlash to this is going to be very strong. Deliberate acts of vandalism rarely appeal strongly, and that is what the government is delivering for the UK economy.
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The last time the Tories engaged in large-scale economic engineering (under which the “let’s remove all tariffs” falls) was the period 1979 to 1982. This saw the evisceration of a significant lump of Uk manufacturing – with Thatcher & co heading for an electoral wipe out in 1984. Along came the Falklands and Thatcher’s “get out of jail free” card. Had this not happened a Foot-led Labour gov would have got in. It will be interesting to see what happens this time around as the “stupid party” once again demonstrates to the world its level of economic competance.
Mike, the truth is that the stupid party will probably survive just as it did in the 1980’s. The reason is that Britain has a stupid electoral system, a stupid electorate, and a stupid opposition.
All it took for the tories to romp home then was a convenient little war against a bunch of ‘dagos’, and FPTP and the ‘patriotic’ electorate did the rest. How will it be different this time?
We still have FPTP, a large precentage of the electorate haven’t a clue what they are voting for or against, and Labour have proved themselves to be virtually useless in opposing the whole disastrous Brexit project, because it’s now dominated by the hard left who would rather go along with the hard right who’s project Brexit is, than oppose Brexit on the grounds that the Leave vote was obtained by lies and electoral fraud.
‘Stupid electorate’ – you’re obviously correct. Thanks.
What we should do is only allow the vote to people who are ‘approved’ by the Politburo and then those that object can be sent to the camps for re-education.
No -one over (65 say) should be allowed to vote as they might be dead when the consequences are forthcoming. In fact – no one over 65 needs to exist (lower population will help with climate change)
Everyone will be too busy blaming the “dictatorial EU”….all their news from the tax-avoiders-gazettes and the largely right-wing media……face it, the majority of the UK population do not think…
This mass export of jobs will be already happening in 2022 when the Honda works in Swindon closes when 3,500 jobs will be lost plus at least this number of “supply chain” jobs as well. The bosses in Tokyo pretend it is nothing to do with Brexit but most local people think that Brexit must be the reason. Honda could have tooled up to make electric cars rather than the polluting diesel cars in production at the moment as the the way the market is going is in the non-fossil fuel direction (we hope!).
What’s so scary is that – in spite of the historic ‘Brexit’ clusterfxck, austerity, deterioration of all public services, £9 billion public asset sell-off, ministerial incompetence in every department, decreasing productivity, declining social mobility, a national housing crisis, environmental inertia, economic illiteracy, continuing City fraud (and so and so on) – Labour is currently trailing by 6 points in the polls (https://pollofpolls.eu/GB). So if there was a GE tomorrow the Tories would probably be re-elected. That’s surely an indication of how deep in doo-doo the country really is. Yet, the general public seems to be relatively acquiescent, more preoccupied with tabloid banalities – until, of course, it becomes personal.
Having delved into some of the social media populated by leavers (yes, it is bad for the eyes!), the tone seems to be ‘we voted to leave, let’s get on with it!’. The consequences seem to matter not one jot, they deny being led/misled by the side of a bus or the 70 million Turkish about to join and ‘swamp’ the UK or those ads showing A&E empty after Brexit. Hammond says they will have to double down on austerity apparently if it all goes pear-shaped, which of course is just what the economy needs – I think not somehow, we are suffering enough as it is.
Having a background in hi technology industry, I wept at the attitude of several administrations who shrugged when our factories were closed and the equipment shipped abroad. Then there came the demise of the GEC empire, the rump eventually sold off to Huawei and we know that was a great plan with the threat of back-door access by the PRC (so the USA alleges anyway). All the profits are repatriated back to the home country as well and when times get tough (Honda, BMW etc etc) they simply close up shop.
Ian
“Lets get on with it”: This what the Belgians did in the Congo, the Portuguese in Mocambique, etc. The ensuing tragedy of war and disintegration continues today. As a young colonial I observed first hand the (wrong in my opinion) dissolution of the Central African Federation. Nevertheless, it was well planned, learning from Nyasaland (Iain Macleod) with limited general elections enfranchising all races eventually and, in Northern Rhodesia, a Republic established a year after dissolution in 1963, governed by a black majority with a generous President.
Not many of the white population left.
However, for a variety of reasons the economy dipped and has been a problem ever since.
Southern Rhodesia, predictably, “got on with it”. Now look what has happened, thanks initially to Ian Smith and UDI.
@John, Interesting coincidence that you brought up the situation in Northern Rhodesia in the early 60s as I lived in a place you have probably heard of, Ndola on the copperbelt. I was a bit too young to appreciate the political aspects perhaps only that I (wrongly) resented the handover disturbing my very comfortable life (servants, climate, high standards of infrastructure etc) as my family returned to the UK to a very wet & dismal Hastings. We were one of the white population who left but I have not kept in touch with anyone I knew from that time so can’t say what it is like there now.
To keep on topic, I agree we are possibly heading for a complete catastrophe and I think this is part of the plan. The Westminster ‘bubble’ has no concept of real life and the complex interactions that make the world tick, it is all a parlour game to them, nobody in the outside world would get away with threatening to burn their boats and not expect the counter-party to call their bluff.
I saw a clip on the BBC, who were in Margate, asking people about their opinions on Brexit. An elderly couple were particularly vehement about the subject culminating in a rather angry/aggressive ‘how dare they (the EU) tell us what to do’.
Views like these seem to me to be generally emotional in nature, and whilst I can’t be sure I suspect that they are supported only by the scantiest of facts or knowledge. On the rare occasion I have seem such opinions challenged responses seem limited to soundbites and clichés of the flavour of ‘we’ve got t take back control’. Likewise, many views on the remain side may be similarly unsupported by information.
This surely is one of the greatest flaws of referendum. So much time is required by the individual citizen to get even a little bit close to understanding such a wide ranging and complex issue. This isn’t to suggest that the average person couldn’t understand the risks and issues but rather that even to most avid follower would struggle to find the time to do the research. I have a lot of free time and have a strong interest in politics and economics but its certain I know less about the pros and cons than I know about the pros and cons. Which is one of the reasons why we have a parliamentary democracy.
The whole Brexit issue was tailor made to be abused by those with high levels of wealth and influence. It is a great pity that so many of those attracted to Brexit by misdirected pride and glory will end up paying a high price, sadly many of them are already on the economic margins and they are in for a nasty shock.
“its certain I know less about the pros and cons than I know about the pros and cons. Which is one of the reasons why we have a parliamentary democracy.”
That, if I may say, shows a touching faith in our MPs that from the evidence thus far is not borne out. Few of them seem to understand the complexities of our EU membership and the impact of leaving either.
Indeed, it must have been a moment of weakness.
Nicholas
This age group tend to read or browse newspapers. The stories they tell often get repeated as jokes and spread that way. The list of euromyths in the link is huge, many of them coming from before the web was in widespread use. Many, if not most, were reported in the Daily Mail, the Sun, The Daily Telegraph and Daily Express.These four make up a majority of the papers sold in this country.
The web in the run up to the referendum also had a lot of these myths-which are really lies and half-truths. Should we blame the journalists for making up stories to sell newspapers? Or their owners?
The papers are owned by billionaires, three of whom don’t live in the UK. Do they set the editorial policy?
I saw a picture in 2016 of Trump, Farage and Banks with others. I did once sample Breibart, once run by Steve Bannon and saw a report of Farage thanking the website for its help in the referendum.
On a different tack It was reported this week that ‘Rupert (Murdoch) wanted Donald elected’.
If we throw in the 1) actions of Cambridge Analytica and 2) the links to American think tanks funded by American billionaires we get a disturbing picture.
There are times it seems like a coup.
https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/
“Stupid electorate’ — you’re obviously correct. Thanks.”
Well Graham, I’m certainly correct in your case. Your childish and petulant response is typical of the kind of stupidity I’m talking about. My attitude is that of a Communist tyrant is it? No, I’m pointing out that a lot of the electorate know very little about the issues they vote on, and as such are easily manipulated by unscrupulous, cynical, ruthless and dishonest policial operators like the very wealthy hard rightists who funded the Leave campaign.
A point amply made by other posters on this blog, if you can be bothered to read their posts. I suggest you research some of the comments made by many of those behind the Leave campaign, such as Matthew Elliot. He actually said that most people spend very little time on politics, and that emotions matter more than facts. Exactly the same point was made by Hitler; the “masses” had to manipulated to vote the way a policial leader wanted them to. Which was the point of propaganda.
And that’s how people like car workers in Nissan end up voting to leave the EU, despite the fact that by doing so they are committing economic suicide since the main reason Nissan is in Sunderland in the first place is Britian’s membership of the EU. That Graham, is what I mean by a stupid electorate. Selfish and arrogant too, since their decison will wreck the lives of those of their better informed colleagues who voted to remian who’ll also lose their jobs if (more likely when) Nissan ups sticks and leaves the UK.
Well – you’re not pointing out in your original post that the electorate know little about the issues they vote on, merely that they are stupid. ‘Childish and petulant’ well – that’s your opinion – mine is that calling the electorate stupid because they voted against your opinion is exactly that.
I have been bothered to read the posts on this blog and researched the points you raise – your comment and attitude discloses what you really think i.e. anyone who voted Leave is stupid. To describe people who have a genuine position that the EU, to summarise, is a ‘bad thing’ as ‘hard right’ and have misled the stupid electorate is somewhat insulting to people who voted to leave.
It’s a fair comment and position to hold that a vote to leave was a mistake, but to call people stupid because they did will not (IMO) help your cause (which I assume, in summary, to be ‘remain’) .
I’d be interested in your view of the various positions that may emerge:
– I assume you would prefer that Parliament rejected the 2016 result, withdrew from A50 and remained in the EU. How would this impact ALL the voters who in 2016 were given a clear choice and ‘we will implement what you decide’
– what if there was another referendum (question as yet to be determined ) which resulted in a vote to remain by the same 52/48 margin – what then? Best of three? Change the rules so a ‘super majority’ is required to leave? What if the result is to leave?
It is very hard to find a rational reason for leaving, I have to admit
Very hard indeed
Hang on Graham.
Hang on SOTD.
Cool it fellas.
The devil is always in the detail – especially with BREXIT.
Stand back and realise that you are BOTH here talking like this because you have been brought to this point by Fascists. And this is exactly what they want. They love to see people falling out over the venality they have sown whist they get on with their agenda. Don’t fall for it. Pull back.
Remember that time has moved on. We now know more than we did about BREXIT.
As of now, there is a tsunami of evidence to suggest that BILLIONs of algorithm generated messages inciting people to vote Leave based on dodgy and inflammatory information were sent out before the referendum.
And this information was targeted at people who were known to have certain interests from their browsing histories that were trawled up without their permission and used. Parliament has reported back and more or less said that the referendum was badly interfered with by unaccountable interests.
I for one quite understand why many of us get fed up with those advocating Leave.
Some of the stuff I have heard people come out with in public and in the company of my own home in terms of anti-EU sentiment and reasoning is just so bad, so wrong, that it is embarrassing and there is no reason not to believe that some of these myths exist within the MP and civil service cohort as well, within policy communities in other words. Oh – and opposition parties too – who it seems actually stop being opposition parties as a result.
As for the Leavers – things have been bad, but it has been your own Government’s austerity measures and the ongoing recovery from 2008 that have made your life hell – not the EU.
Many of those older Leavers blame poor domestic policy outcomes on EU policy. It is as simple as that.
I think the questions you should be asking are things like:
‘Why are their clips of leading BREXITERs saying that a leave vote would not mean leaving the single market, but somehow all of a sudden we are now?’.
‘What effect has ongoing harsh austerity had on peoples attitudes to BREXIT? Why was this not considered when the referendum was planned?’.
‘How can a Prime Minister determine that ‘BREXIT means BREXIT’ without the vote being ratified by Parliament where legal & policy sovereignty actually lies (and not with the post of Prime Minister or a Political Party itself)?’.
‘Given what we know about the conduct of BREXIT, plus the additional select committee report of social media and democracy, why are we still pursuing BREXIT when the result cannot be called safe by any normal measure?’.
‘Given the closeness of the vote, how can it be acceptable to have a No Deal exit still being considered? What are the 48% Remainer’s going get out of it, for being bothered to vote. How can we justify in a modern democracy ignoring 48% of a vote?’.
‘What is the difference between a referendum result and general election result in terms of national policy decisions going forward?’.
My view?
I think that May and the ERG are in cahoots. They both want to tear up this country and finish the Thatcherite programme. The only thing they differ on is how quickly to do it.
BREXIT and the destruction it will cause will be the anvil upon which the re-setting of British society along the lines of what you mention above (feudalism) but with a more globalised element and more financial power will be shaped.
May wants a more drawn out BREXIT (‘her BREXIT’) because it will be easier for her and her party to control in terms of public perception and pace and it also means that she can hand over this control to another PM as a go slow Tory party is more likely to be voted in again. She is what you might call a more considered extremist than the ERG.
Mind, you could also call the ERG more direct and honest about their intentions but I prefer just to call them brutal grab-alls. Either way though, it will be the same result. I promise you.
Honestly, the only Leave option is actually to stay or at least ‘do a Norway’.
Some chance.
Which is why this week is seismic
Graham, as Email Address Supplied has pointed out in his excellent posts, we should try and calm down. I will try, although I’m finding that very difficult these days. So,to answer your last 2 points (I’m sorry I can’t give a fuller reply, I’m short of time)
– I think Parliament should revoke A50, by whatever means it can do, on the basis that we now know the extent of the criminality behind the Leave campaign, and the damage leaving the EU will do the UK. It should explain this in very clear detail to the electorate, and admit that the whole conduct of the 2016 referendum was corrupt and incompetent. A national assembly should be set up to discuss all the issues beside the Leave campaign’s fraud that led to lots of people voting Leave.
– If there was another referendum…………..i just don’t know te best way to handle it, to be honest.
Well, it has been said that this is a place where it is allowed for one to be angry within reasonable tolerances.
I too am fed up to the back teeth of too easily led Tory voters and the ‘not really engaged’ sounding off as they have just read the Daily Mail’s front page.
However, it is not useful to keep talking about what could be your friends and neighbours in this way.
Dehumanising your opponents is something that happens in war quite a lot. If you dehumanise people, you create an excuse to wipe them out – negate them. It’s not nice. And you can be treated the same in return.
My view has become to focus my ire on the manipulators out there – the Tory party themselves, UKIP, very HNWI’s whose anti whatever bias is just a hobby upon to which to spend their ill-gotten gains and also the Labour party – who have concentrated too much time on swing voters and forgotten about those who really need their help and are now going to be very hard to win over.
They are all culpable and remain so. The Right are true fascists – distorting grudges into national crises in order to throw the electorate off the scent.
The Left haven’t got a clue – their faith in humanity and any alternative to Neol-liberal orthodoxy shot to pieces. And they are are also cowardly in terms of taking on anything new as much as the Right are cowardly at trying to explain to the public how the UK is actually a very small country that is going to make itself even smaller and more vulnerable.
So if I were you, don’t take it out on your friends and neighbours. Grit your teeth, hold your composure but fix your gaze instead on the overpaid dolts who we send to Parliament that can’t even be bothered to remove one of the most incompetent Prime Ministers in the country’s recent history nor work together to ensure that we at least leave the EU with a deal (or God forbid, see what Leave actually is – a bad idea executed extremely competently – covertly as it turns out at the referendum stage – but which has turned into a clusterfuck of epic proportions since and needs to be stopped).
Our political system has failed. The people in that system are mostly of low quality. They have been found out and with any luck we can at some time dispose of them.
We can only go through what is to come but do so in the hope that blame will be apportioned correctly.
The question is, are progressives ready for that opportunity? You know – I don’t know. How long are such crises? I haven’t the foggiest.
But I feel that the more we look down our noses at those we consider to be misled, the longer and more difficult getting to a more decent place will because we will need to win these people over so that they are standing beside us, not on the other side of the street when we have a chance to start anew.
We need to win the argument by destroying the malignancy amongst us with compassion, empathy and patience. The people of this country have been badly abused and misled and are red raw from it. They bleed their humanity.
Progressives should have the confidence now in the new ideas that wait to be tried and good old ideas that need to be resurrected. Feed off your confidence and be tolerant of those who feel ignored and are being manipulated.
Hang in there I say.
THE LISBON TREATY, THE TREATY THAT COMES INTO FORCE 2020,
Check it out if you wish ––>>
1: The UK along with all existing members of the EU lose their abstention veto in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon Treaty when the system changes to that of majority acceptance with no abstentions or veto’s being allowed.
2: All member nations will become states of the new federal nation of the EU by 2022 as clearly laid out in the Lisbon treaty with no exceptions or veto’s.
3: All member states must adopt the Euro by 2022 and any new member state must do so within 2 years of joining the EU as laid down in the Lisbon treaty.
4: The London stock exchange will move to Frankfurt in 2020 and be integrated into the EU stock exchange resulting in a loss of 200,000 plus jobs in the UK because of the relocation. (This has already been pre-agreed and is only on a holding pattern due to the Brexit negotiations, which if Brexit does happen, the move is fully cancelled – but if not and the UK remains a member it’s full steam ahead for the move.)
5: The EU Parliament and ECJ become supreme over all legislative bodies of the UK.
6: The UK will adopt 100% of whatever the EU Parliament and ECJ lays down without any means of abstention or veto, negating the need for the UK to have the Lords or even the Commons as we know it today.
7: The UK will NOT be able to make its own trade deals.
8: The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade tariffs.
9 The UK will NOT be able to set its own trade quotas.
10: The UK loses control of its fishing rights
11: The UK loses control of its oil and gas rights
12: The UK loses control of its borders and enters the Schengen region by 2022 – as clearly laid down in the Lisbon treaty
13: The UK loses control of its planning legislation
14: The UK loses control of its armed forces including its nuclear deterrent
15: The UK loses full control of its taxation policy
16: The UK loses the ability to create its own laws and to implement them
17: The UK loses its standing in the Commonwealths
18: The UK loses control of any provinces or affiliated nations e.g.: Falklands, Cayman Islands, Gibraltar etc
19: The UK loses control of its judicial system
20: The UK loses control of its international policy
21: The UK loses full control of its national policy
22: The UK loses its right to call itself a nation in its own right.
23: The UK loses control of its space exploration program
24: The UK loses control of its Aviation and Sea lane jurisdiction
25: The UK loses its rebate in 2020 as laid down in the Lisbon treaty
26: The UK’s contribution to the EU is set to increase by an average of 1.2bn pa and by 2.3bn pa by 2020
This is the future that the youths of today think we stole from them?
I have checked it out
This is simply not true
It is total fabrication
There you go folks.
Richard leads the way with a measured response!!
Even if Mr Burns was right, the rise of the Extreme Right in the Euro zone casts a shadow over the whole programme somewhat.
The giveaway is this one:
’22: The UK loses its right to call itself a nation in its own right’.
How can that possibly be? It is not rational. It’s impossible. If this was the case, why so much emphasis on rights?
The EU is all about trade and smoothing over imbalances in trading that caused fall outs in the past. The EU is not a super-state project.
It just wants to stop ploughing the bodies of Englishmen, Frenchmen, Germans, Belgians, Dutch, Russians, Americans Australians, New Zealanders, Italians and others into its soil on a regular cyclical basis and to live in peace.
Sure – it’s not perfect – but give me peace and a faulty treaty any day over war and death.
Oh dear Mr Burns, another one trying to disseminate the latest crop of Leave lies. Already been refuted by many people. You should have been alive in 1930’s Germany; you could have worked for Dr Goebbels.