Are we heading for a hung parliament?

Posted on December 4 2019

People have little more than a week left to make up their minds in this election. If they are voting by post, it is somewhat less. 

The good news is patterns are emerging. The increase in Tory support has flattened as the Brexit Party ceases to play any effective role.

The LibDems look to be heading for their proverbial ‘party in the back of a taxicab' status.

The SNP are expected to make gains. 

And Labour support is rising. 

In summary, we're now in hung parliament territory.

In practice, I'm told that as far as the Tories are concerned a majority of anything less than 12 is unworkable and we'd be heading for the polls again if they got the chance to do so. That could be by February, if necessary. And that's not least because they are aware that not a single vote from another party could now be relied upon to assist them, and the ERG ‘bastards' have not gone anywhere. 

And if by chance, they did not secure a majority, even if (as seems overwhelmingly likely) they are the largest party, what then? That is the interesting scenario.

Could Labour deliver the seemingly impossible in that situation? Could it, at the very least, secure another EU deal and a second referendum, given that resolving Brexit would have, regrettably given the many other pressing issues that exist, to be its priority? 

My gut reaction is that it could. The EU does want a closer deal with the UK. The DUP might accept a second vote as a way out of this mess. I have little doubt the SNP and LibDems would too. And would some Tories break ranks? The answer has to be that the chance is high. A binding referendum to close down parliamentary paralysis would appeal to some.

In other words, although it might be short lived, and never form a coalition, a Labour minority government might resolve Brexit.

And if it did it might then do well in a subsequent election, as people like Labour policies, overall. 

This election is not over yet, in other words. And there remIn reasons for hope. My sense is that the country knows this. Just as in 2017, the idea that the Tories have won this, prevalent at the start of the campaign, has faded. Boris Johnson may at best get an unworkable majority. And he might still lose. Saying which, the boundaries of statistical error also suggest he might get a thumping majority. But I am beginning to doubt that, at least enough to say so. 

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10 Responses

  1. Mike Ghirelli says:
    December 4 2019 at 7:57 am

    Hung Parliament: let’s hope.

  2. Mike Parr says:
    December 4 2019 at 9:00 am

    been doorknocking for Labour in some marginals. Does not look too bad. Lot of “let’s get Brexit done” & “I don’t like Jeremy Corbyn” – the latter showing that the MSM has done a fine job. I had a Jewish chap with me doorstepping – when the punter started with the anti-semitism shit – I pointed to my fellow canvasser and said – he’s jewish and thinks Corbyn is fine chap – the conversation then moves rapidly to other subjects. British people have been groomed on this one.

    There is no doorstep campaigning by the Tories – they appear to be happy to reply on the MSM and the Internet. Not a good look if you want to interact directly with British citizens – but I guess that is the point – not to interact cos the current crop of tories really don’t like British people. Personally? – doorstepping is great – have a good chat – try to answer some questions – hopefully change some minds.

  3. Mike Parr says:
    December 4 2019 at 9:48 am

    there was some excitement in Cirencester yesterday – the centre of the town was festooned with various leaflets. Some of them claimed that it was Tory policy to bring back fox hunting and oddly, “Safe Departure” clinics with the idea that these would be facilitated by legalising euthanasia. Apparently such clinics would be built in poor areas.

    However, the most incendiary leaflet was what seemed to be meeting minutes to do with Brexit – I snatched a copy of this and can make it available – it makes for rather interesting reading – and seems to be the “real deal”. Johnson claims that he can get a trade deal done within 2020 – if the meeting miutes are to be believed – it would seem that much of the negotiations have already been done – & as the covering sheet noted – could be characterised as “unconditional surrender”. I wonder where I have heard that before.
    Wonder what the good burgers of Cirecester make of it all.

  4. Prentii says:
    December 4 2019 at 11:02 am

    A hung parliament is my best hope at the moment.

  5. Pilgrim Slight Return says:
    December 4 2019 at 12:59 pm

    I have no idea how to call it Richard.

    I walked into a garage yesterday to see all the usual suspect newspapers speaking of Corbyn as a national security risk.

    At first I was stricken with dread. But then I thought – this is a bit desperate. All the Twatties (sic) do is rant about stuff the Corbyn has not yet done! In the cold light of day it might be productive. But there is also a tinge of desperation about it too.

    Will the public fall for it? I and many others I’m proud to know won’t. I hope it will be enough.

  6. DunGroanin says:
    December 4 2019 at 5:35 pm

    Reply ↓
    Dungroanin
    December 4, 2019 at 17:30
    Today the msm narrative manufacturers suddenly ignore the main event a week and a day away from D-Day, after banging on non-stop about how Labour.

    Lol.

    Tories only hope is to reduce turnout . There is one more debate to come in which Bobo will be bobo for all to see.

    The first lot of postal ballots will be in and their votes will have been illegally observed by the private co running it.
    They will see the flood of Labour votes arriving.
    More important the latest Cabinet Office poll will be in, confirming the real numbers on the ground across the country — I bet the civil service will have been working up the Labour policy plans and not be caught short as they were in 2017.

    What happened at the Palace yesterday- was there a meeting between Trump and Corbyn?
    No reports.

    Trump the outsider and hated by media and establishment in his campaign and presidency daily — has more affinity with the equally vilified Corbyn than many would think!
    Don’t forget the British DS and the sis is under the fco that had Johnson incharge when they conspired to stop Trump — do you really think he is going to forget that?

    The msm is trying to tell the people there is nothing happening and to become apathetic.

    The REVOLUTION is NOT being TELEVISED!

  7. Darren Sharrocks says:
    December 5 2019 at 7:15 am

    My view lies on it depends if labour’s poll ratings have flatlined. Also why are we hung up about the polls? They were wrong in 2017 and the results are looking much like 2017 general election polling with a few caveats. There was a few more 38s% for Labour a week out to the polling day. Also the yougov MRP polls called it 38%/ 42 for the tories in 2017.

    Now Yougov are saying its tory majority. Still the latest MRP was way before the main events of the election, ie the debates and manifesto launches.We know there are problems with Yougov methodology and when a non MRP starts to agree with MRP poll. Then one has to ask-is this damage data, are they correct or just wrong in other ways? I think they are wrong based on 2017 results.

    So are the polls correct? Not in my view i am comparing them from 2017 and 2019. The patterns are very similar to now, Yougov gave lab 35 and tories 42, others at the time gave the tories a 11, or 12 point lead in 2017. Of course like i said before if labour does not grow in the polls ie they stay at 32 then the tories will have a good majority. I do not think the 32 number is correct and labour now is sitting around 34 or 35 in the polls or their upper number could be 38 etc or equally it could be 29 who knows. I think we are not in hung parliament territory yet but i think we are very very close.

    Also the youth vote has been vastly underestimated in the polls and millions of people have registered to vote, most of them young. If they vote for labour which i suspect they will it could turn the election on its head and give Corbyn a majority. I have two sons of voting age 19 and 20 one is at university and the other doing A levels, both are voting labour.

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