2011 – in anticipation

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So, I’ve reflected on 2010, what hopes for 2011?

Politics

We’ll still have a coalition government — but the Lib Dems will begin to defect.

Osborne won’t do a U turn despite all the evidence that his policies are failing. That will come in 2012 as the scale of opposition increases across society — especially as the NHS and social services for the elderly begin to crumble.

Cable will quit but it won’t make any difference.

Ed Balls will become shadow chancellor.

The main discussion on politics will stay outside Westminster as the initiative is taken by new thinking which Labour will begin to assimilate. Unions will feature in this process.

Tax Justice

The issue will grow. The opposition from big business will be strong, and maybe messy.

Country-by-country reporting will get an EU endorsement — at least for the extractive industries.

Sarkozy will reignite the tax haven debate but the OECD will seek to water it down.

We will see widespread discussion on a General Anti-Avoidance Principle in the UK and the CBI will make that the focus of its opposition to reform.

UK Uncut will become policy focussed as it develops.

Personally

I hope to work on a book (agent, anyone?)

I might do a bit less blogging as a result.

Because NGOs, TJN and UK Uncut are delivering the message that reform is needed my focus will be on the solutions to the problems, not that the problem exists. That’s agreed now.

Solutions are in short supply at present, and I’m looking forward to promoting them on tax and the broader economic issues.

Overall

It’s going to be a very hard year with the pain horribly unevenly spread.

The divisions in society will become very apparent.

The pressure for change to promote greater justice for those who are poorest and in the middle in this country will become unstoppable.

But it will be very tough on the way.