From the Guardian, this morning:

The current recession is even deeper than had been thought – and started more than a year ago – as statisticians today revised the drop in national income in the first quarter of the year to 2.4%, the biggest fall since 1958.

The annual drop in output in the January to March period is now said to be an all-time record of 4.9%, fresh Office for National Statistics figures showed.

Economists had expected a downward revision to the initial estimate of a 1.9% drop in gross domestic product, because of a recent revision to construction sector output. But the new figures are much worse than expected.

Let’s be clear: I do not define growth as good, per se. ‚ÄòEnough economics’ will certainly be arguing against that simplistic and unsustainable assumption.

But let’s also be clear, disorganisation and chaos don’t help, and that’s what we’re at risk of, and any action by the government of the UK (any government of the UK) to cut spending is only going to make the situation worse.

First, government cuts reduce employment further. there are no other jobs so the consequence is unemployment.

Second that reduces demand further.

Third, governments unlike business can and should invest counter-cyclically: not doing so reduces demand and jobs still further.

Fourth, we’re then ill prepared for the necessary new business environment that always follows a recession or depression – and this looks like the latter now.

Fifth, because of the compounding effect of the lost economic activity because of cuts, the tax paid on the jobs lost because of the cuts and the increase in government costs reducing government spending will actually almost certainly cost the government more than maintaining the status quo when its overall financial position is considered – but society as a whole would be better off without those cuts.

So why are neither the Tories or Labour Keynesians now? Because that’s exactly what the country needs them to be.

Greening RBS

 Green New Deal  Comments Off
Jun 302009
 

FT.com / UK / Politics & policy – Green groups to sue over RBS investments.

Environmental groups on Monday night launched what could be a landmark lawsuit against the Treasury to force it to ensure that taxpayers’ money invested in the Royal Bank of Scotland supports only projects that satisfy minimum green and human rights standards.

Three groups of environmentalists – the World Development Movement, Platform and People & Planet – are behind the case, which has been lodged at the High Court.

They claim the Treasury has breached its own policy to tackle climate change and reduce carbon emissions by using public funds to bail out RBS, which once marketed itself as “the oil and gas bank” and has long been one of the top lenders to the energy industry.

The three groups are now seeking to force the government to assess RBS’s lending portfolio to ensure that the embattled bank is investing only in projects that promote “a sustainable and ethical future”.

Which is what we all need.

I wish them good luck.

 

David Drew, MP for Stroud in Gloucestershire has tabled amendments to the Parliamentary Standards Bill which should put the cat amongst the pigeons. The first says:

(1)    This section applies without prejudice to any rules made by the IPSA pursuant to section 5.

(2)    A person to whom this section applies must file an Annual Financial Disclosure Statement, in a manner to be specified in regulations, providing the following information‚Äî

(a)    copies of his tax returns for the last three years ending on 5 April prior to the date of submission of the Annual Financial Disclosure Statement; and

(b)    details of any assets in the form of property or shares that he owns or controls at the date of submission of the Annual Financial Statement.

(3)    This section applies to any member of the House of Commons and House of Lords.

And the second this:

(1)    All persons to whom this section applies must publish, in the circumstances prescribed by this section and in the manner to be specified in regulations the following information‚Äî

(a)    his tax return for the last year ending 5 April prior to his declaration as a candidate; and

(b)    details of any assets in the form of property or shares that he owns or controls on the date of his declaration as a candidate.

(2)    This section applies to any candidate for election to the House of Commons who spends more than £1000 on his election campaign.

I wholeheartedly support this move.

 

From the Guardian (edited):

Gordon Brown unveiled a manifesto entitled Building Britain’s Future and a draft Queen’s speech containing 12 bills. The overall aim was to downgrade Whitehall public service targets in favour of individual rights, with some enforceable by the community and others by individuals.

There’s a problem in this. People don’t want rights, they want things done. They don’t want to enforce things, they need to happen.

This is the choice agenda.

And people don’t actually want choice in most things the state does fro them, they just want things done well.

Why can’t he get that?

Jun 302009
 

There’s a new entry on my ‚ÄòEnough Economics’ blog this morning, entitled  ‚ÄòInputs and Outputs: Best in Balance.’

Jun 302009
 

From this morning’s Guardian:

Banks benefited from a spate of positive reports yesterday, with Lloyds Banking Group the biggest riser in the leading index after an upgrade from Goldman Sachs.

Goldman raised its rating from neutral to conviction buy and lifted its price target from 61p to 107p. "We see Lloyds as a key beneficiary of increased market share concentration in the UK," it said, "and expect the group to be able to take advantage of its 30% share through market-leading cost efficiency and pricing power."

Lloyds closed up 4.07p at 70.56p, while Royal Bank of Scotland – recommended by Cazenove last week – rose 0.87p to 39p after Goldman upped its target from 36p to 41p. Meanwhile, Barclays added 11.5p to 279.65p after a change of heart at Soci?©t?© G?©n?©rale. SocGen moved from sell to hold with a 260p price target, up from only 46p, after the recent announcement of the sale of Barclays Global Investors.

So banks went out of their way to tip banks. Now there’s a surprise.

And I know that the state owns some of those banks, but what is inherent in these soaring bank prices is the externalisation of their risk: the state bears that now. Which is exactly why they should be under  much tighter state control, be split into traditional and casino banks, and should be subject to a 10% extra tax to pay the insurance premium for the risk they impose on society.

If we don’t do that what is quite clear from the above is that they’re laughing all the way to the bank.

 

Brendan Barber has written on the TUC blog, saying:

We’ve been examining the voting records of institutional investors for seven years now at the TUC, through our Fund Manager Voting Survey (2009 full survey here), and we’re noticing a worrying trend- we’re now down to 40% of fund managers responding to our survey, compared to 68% only five years ago.

Coupled with this, there seems to be a pattern of complacency amongst many funds. The vast majority of institutional investors didn’t challenge the remuneration reports of leading banks in the run up to the crash. Only one respondent (Co-operative Insurance Society) opposed RBS’ acquisition of ABN Amro (which is now widely regarded as one of the worst deals in UK corporate history). Such a strong pattern of siding with the board on controversial decisions looks like fund management on autopilot.

The theory is that in modern capitalism company boards are accountable to their owners, the shareholders. But this is a long way from what is actually happening. Instead share owners, mostly ordinary people saving through their pension funds, simply have no say.

The fund managers who are meant to exercise ownership rights and responsibilities often fail to do so. What is worse is that many will not even tell the unions that represent thousands of pension fund savers whether or how those ownership responsibilities were exercised.

It’s worth reading the rest, but the key issues is this: pension and other investment fund management has been almost entirely devolved in our current financial hierarchy to the City. And yet that’s exactly where the worst ‚Äògroup think’, the big bonus culture and the conflict of interest that puts personal gain for the banker / fund manage ahead of duty to their company, client or society is at its worst.

So we’ve outsourced control of pensions to the very people least likely to do the job well because they have maximum conflict of interest and the lowest level of motivation to break the mould of the City which ahs created such spectacularly poor results that BT can only meet 57% of its pension obligations.

And yet, every time the government consults with investors it asks those pension fund managers what they want – not the actual members of the fund, creating a ring fence around this money which is supposedly managed for pension fund members but which is in practice entirely purloined for the benefit if the City with such miserable consequence.

Pension reform would be another task for a genuine left-wing government of the sort we so desperately need. And it’s another indictment of New Labour that what we have has failed so badly.

 

Yes, addicts need help. But all you casual cocaine users want locking up | George Monbiot | Comment is free | The Guardian .

I know people who drink fair-trade tea and coffee, shop locally and take cocaine at parties. They are revolting hypocrites.

Every year cocaine causes some 20,000 deaths in Colombia and displaces several hundred thousand people from their homes. Children are blown up by landmines; indigenous people are enslaved; villagers are tortured and killed; rainforests are razed. You’d cause less human suffering if instead of discreetly retiring to the toilet at a media drinks party, you went into the street and mugged someone. But the counter-cultural association appears to insulate people from ethical questions. If commissioning murder, torture, slavery, civil war, corruption and deforestation is not a crime, what is?

All faciliated by tax havens George, never forget that. The professional classes have to get their rake off. Add that to the list of hypocrisy.

 

The FT reports:

The BT Group Pension Scheme – the UK’s largest private sector retirement fund – had only enough money at the end of 2008 to pay about 57 per cent of promised benefits if the telecommunications company were to become insolvent, and said it intended to pare back sharply its future investments in equities in the future.

The shift in strategy is significant for a scheme that has consistently taken the view held that it is investing for the longer term and therefore, in spite of the fact that the scheme is mostly comprised of pensioners or deferred members, equity investments remain appropriate investments.

In 2007, 57 per cent of the assets were allocated to equities. The BTPS said that its target has now been cut to 33 per cent of the portfolio.

Way back in 2003 I, with my co-authors of ‚ÄòPeople’s Pensions’ suggested that relying on equities as a basis for pension funds was absurd. It’s a shame it has taken BT and its fund managers so long to cotton on.

And given that the FT suggests the deficit may actually be bigger than the market worth of BT it is clear BT can never make this up from cash payments, at least without crippling the business.

A pension tax is the only option because it is clear our pension system is not working. The state cannot pay the incomes needed to maintain an aging population out of the taxes paid by a declining working population. The private sector cannot do so from cash contributions it makes into pension funds that are subject to cyclical booms and busts, partly because of excess cash resources being invested in shares by pension funds.

We have to be realistic about what pensions are. They are mechanisms for transferring property rights: between generations and from the owners of capital to the suppliers of labour. This blunt reality is rarely stated; that does not alter the truth inherent in the statement.

Recognising that truth allows us to propose another tax, one based on the pioneering work of Rudolf Meidner in the 1950s and 60s in Sweden. This would require that all companies employing more than a small number of staff each year to pay a tax settled in the form of an issue of their shares. The rate would need to be determined, but it would be a significant percentage: BT will be making pension contributions equivalent to 20% of its market capitalisation over the next 4 years. A tax rate of 5% of capital might therefore be required.

The shares in question would be issued to a national pension fund. That fund would have obligation to manage those investments to make a return to pay pensions for all people in the UK, not just the employees of the companies that are taxed.

The benefits of the tax are obvious: it does not reduce the cash capacity of the companies that make it to invest in the future as do current pension contributions; it cuts out the current ‚Äòmiddle man’ in the form of the City that currently extracts an undue percentage from all pension contributions made, and it is applied across the board.

Of course there are problems that would need to be tackled, such as the enforcement of the obligation on the subsidiaries of foreign companies trading in the UK. Cash alternatives might be required if they cannot or do not make equity contributions. These would have to be enforceable. But these are technical issues. The fact is the tax is needed to ensure that sufficient wealth is transferred into funds maintained for the benefit of the retired population of the UK. Nothing else can provide those funds that are needed to prevent mass poverty amongst the old whilst maintaining the active investment required in productive capital needed to generate the real wealth on which they will depend.