I took time to follow the news yesterday. I tried not to react to it for a while. It seemed the right thing to do.
No doubt the news media will today be full of the fallout from events on Friday at what the Sun, I noticed, call The Fight House, but let me offer a few more thoughts of my own.
The more I see and hear of what happened, the more I am sure that this was an entirely stage-managed outcome as far as the White House is concerned. Everyone saying so may be mistaken, but too many people agree for me to think that the case. Everything, from the comments on Zelenskyy's clothes onwards, was clearly designed to rattle him, and the aggression all came from Trump, Vance and their team.
The presence of a Russian news agency in the room where this was happening cannot have been by chance. I do not think White House security is that weak. The correspondent in question might, thereafter, have been theatrically thrown out, but I very strongly suspect that they were invited in.
Then, let's look at the deeper issues that flow from this.
First, Trump - the supposed great deal maker - has not got a deal when he said it was in the bag. I still cannot see how he gets around that in the US. I am also not at all sure that he will forgive the humiliation of that. He thought he could humiliate Zelenskyy to win, and everything got out of hand, including the tempers of Trump and Vance. Whether he will ever forgive what happened, I am not sure.
Second, the deal as discussed, looks to be absurd. Many of the minerals to which it refers are in the now Russian-occupied part of Ukraine. How is that meant to work? And there are no security guarantees. Why would anyone sign up to that? That strategy looks dead in the water anyway now.
Third, let me move on from the specifics, to broader issues. There are a number of points to make:
- I can't see the US backing Ukraine again. Trump holds grudges. It is clear he has had a grudge against Zelenskyy for more than five years. That is not going to change.
- NATO is over: the US is not in any way aligned with it now. It is time to stop the pretence that an alliance exists any more.
- Trump is intent on destroying the EU. Tariffs are one way in which he wants to do that. Another is by creating polotical stress between the member states, and a fall out over defending Ukraine is how he intends to achieve that. For all practical purposes he is at war with the EU.
- Let's not pretend the UK is in a different place. We have the same VAT as the EU. Starmer's appropriate posturing with Zelenskyy last night, and no doubt again later today, puts paid to any pretence that we can be both Ukraine's ally and have a supposed special relationship with the USA. Trump will not buy that.
- The world is going to realign now, come what may.
Fourth, like it or not:
- This makes a UK realignment with the EU essential.
- Requires that Rachel Reeves stop pretending that the world is as it is and her fiscal rules still apply. When the facts change, sensible people change their minds. The same is true of the EU.
- Right across Europe, a programme to engage young people again is essential: they are where the right is strong and there is good reason for that: they have been sold seriously short and that is a priority for every government to change if political sentiment is to change. What needs to be discussed now is not just the stress with Putin and Trump, but what the conditions for alleviating stress domestically are - and no one should forget that.
- The financial fallout from this is not yet known, but they could be colossal:
- If markets are stable, then they are the only things that are, and that makes no sense.
- The dollar's position has to be under threat now. Will it be the reserve currency for good? I doubt it.
- Banking is going to need to be rethought: a change to the dollar hegemony will require that.
Fifth, this is the moment for a new Keynes and a new Beveridge.
Sixth,it is also time to take climate change seriously: the current crisis is making that more complicated and this is another reason why peaceful solutions must be found. If ever there was a time for a Green New Deal, this is it.
In summary, everything is changing. It is time to grab the opportunities.
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[…] is right, and this is a restatement of what I have already said this morning, but let me add a few more […]
I have believed from the outset that the minerals deal was mostly theatre. It was something of little value to Ukraine that Zelenskyy could offer to Trump, and Trump would love, because it bolsters his image as a deal-maker. For that reason, it is possible the deal will still be signed.
The vaunted mineral wealth of Ukraine is a bit of a mirage. Yes Ukraine has some mineral resources. But nothing like China or Russia or the US. And there is penalty off aluminium production in Canada, for example. I don’t see any reason why the US should be obsessed with grabbing resources from Ukraine when it has so many of its own.
I expect there will be a minerals deal because it costs Ukraine little but has become a big political prize for Trump the deal maker. The interesting thing will be how it is structured and funded. If Ukraine is saying that US companies may come and invest in Ukraine, and keep some of the resulting profits, then that is not really much of a deal at all.
One area where Ukraine does have an important position in the world economy is agriculture. Wheat, maize, sunflower and rape seeds and oils.
Interesting thoughts on our turbulent times.
I really hope a new Keynes and/or Beveridge emerges. We are really lacking vision and direction. Can you see any possible candidates? And how will they get any traction with Starmer and his ilk?
Keynes was very young when he joined the civil service. He was involved in the war planning of both world wars and died at 62. For a new Keynes to emerge, the young have to be involved in politics in their 20s. They have to be employed by the government and have a careers at top world university with connections to the greatest thinkers of their time.
This is not happening. The people who could be Keynes are not getting the opportunity. Primarily because the people running and advising governments do not want that to happen.
Spot on Richard.
How can Reeves claim her rules are not for changing when she “is unlocking billions for defence”?
How can no steer Keir still play the “bridge”?
Can no steer make the right choices?
I am afraid that there is little evidence that suggests LINO can do so.
You’re right that what seemed to be set cast in die is now falling to bits.
But will the opportunities be grabbed? I fear pigs will fly first.
Your proposals are almost identical to what I argued in my Facebook circle. Especially the return of Keynes and Beveridge.
One difference. NATO is not over. Perhaps in its present form. I argue for what has been around for years. A two pillar alliance with Europe being more self sufficient. But it will take years to build. In a functioning alliance some specialisation takes place which means people have to rely on others. That enables economies of scale which gives lower unit prices. Things like satellite surveillance and heavy airlift, in-flight refuelling are mainly American.
Co-operation will continue under the radar. The American officer corps does have a number who deplore what is happening. General Milley is the former Chief of Staff who argued Trump out of attacking Iran and who telephoned the Chinese Liberation Army to assure them they were not going to war. Trump, in an act of petty vindictiveness, had his portrait removed from the Pentagon. The imposition of people like Hegseth as Defence Secretary and the removal of General Brown has angered a lot of them. How this will play out I can’t say, but I am fairly sure there is an internal resistance. However, it does, if fact, play out, it will never be the same again but links will remain and Trump won’t be there for ever. He might not even serve the full term
On a green new deal, to reiterate your earlier blog, how energy is priced needs to change, and I note that, on Left Foot Forward, there’s an article about how renewables in Spain mean lower energy prices, without mention of the UK energy pricing scam (seems an apt word) that means that no matter how cheap UK renewable energy becomes. For people to write such articles not knowing this is incredibly problematic, it’s a failure to shine a light on a rigged monopoly “market”, and seriously misinforms readers about why UK energy prices are so high, instead it misleads the reader into believing it is to do with insufficient renewable provision. Journalism overall seems to be at a nadir, reduced to knowing how to form an article, but not what to put into it.
Thanks
That should read “no matter how cheap UK renewable energy becomes, its price will remain the same as that of foreign gas”.
Its been pointed out elsewhere that a Chinese owned grain loading point in the Ukraine has been attacked by Russia so I cant see anyone queueing up to build mines and processing/transport facilities for Ukrainian minerals without US Security Guarantees.
You are right, there are opportunities…. “Never let a good crisis go to waste”.
This could allow the government to start with a clean slate and think hard about what our priorities are…. without the constraints of the manifesto pledges that are so clearly outdated.
Now, I accept there will be some disagreement about those priorities but surely we can all agree that the pledges on tax and deficit need to be ditched. That does not mean we can tax/spend without limit – certainly not… but we should have a sensible debate.
Personally, I would like the debate to be about outcomes rather than budgets. I am no military/health expert but surely the issue should be “how many squadrons of planes/pilots do we need?”/”how many hospital beds and doctors do we need?” – “what do we need to do to get there?”…. and THEN discuss money. At the risk of over-quoting Keynes – “Anything we CAN do we can AFFORD to do”.
Much to agree with
You mentioned that many of the minerals to which it refers are in the now Russian-occupied part of Ukraine and how is that meant to work. I’m grateful for the explanation by Victor Davis Hanson.
It means that Trump will negotiate to get the DMZ pushed back as far to the east as possible and therefore increases the area of US mining interests, and by extension Ukrainian interests as they will get a revenue share. By having engineering companies on the ground there is an American interest, which America will protect, and this is better than being a NATO member with NATO troops on the ground which cannot be accepted by Putin.
Yiu support Ukraine as a neutral state.
How do you see that happening now?
I stress I think it desirable, and Ukraine should never have been seen as a NATO outpost. But that is not the same as asking how is this possible now?
John, I suspect Hanson is completely wrong. Why? Because although not widely reported, one of Trump’s right hand men (can’t remember which, one of his donors that’s now involved in the so called ‘peace’ negotiation) had a three and a half hour meeting with Putin this past week (before Zelenskyy on Friday). It’s widely reported in OSINT circles, and not disputed by the Kremlin as far as I know (certainly Putin spoke about such possibilities last weekend), that the main point of discussion was a minerals mining deal for the Donbas and Luhansk. As you know, Russia claims all of those territories even if it still doesn’t occupy all of them, so I’d say it’s just as likely that any deal Trump might have in mind is ceeding all of those territories to Russia, not vice versa. Given Trumps love of Putin and dislike of Zelenskyy that’s a much more likely scenario. So why try to get the same deal with Ukraine, you might ask. To cover his bases: worse case scenario they mine both sides of the the ‘peace’ line, if it remains roughly where the line of contact is now.
I think Trump is playing to gain Russian support for taking Greenland and Canada
As usual, much to agree with.
However, this headline suggests that “Everything is changing” does not seem to have pentrated the skull of Starmer, Marcon etc: (headline from the Guaridan)
“UK and France to work with Ukraine on peace plan to be presented to US, Starmer says”…….why? Why not present it to Russia? Given it is Ruzzia that is attacking Ukraine. The US is Ruzzias poodle and this phrase (not mine) summarises Mango: “Trump wants nothing more than to continue to live in his reality show world where he is a god-king and everyone worships him”. As we have seen, when somebody contradicts Mango he goes bonkers as one would expect with a man-baby.
The Europeans need to carve their own path. First step would be to close the Baltic to all traffic to and from Ruzzia, ditto the Dardanelles. Intern ALL Russians in Europe and auto-internment for any arriving in Europe/UK. This would not be difficult to do, Scandics have assets to close the Baltic, Greece, Italy, Spain ditto for the Dardanelles. Ship inspections etc etc. In the case of Cyprus, all banking to do with Ruzzians closed, all Ruzzians interned.
Amen to all that, excellent post.
As a rail traveller to work, my weekly rail card has gone up £5, higher than my pay ‘award’ this year. What a joke. How much will it have to go up if we go to war, given that -apparently according to Rachel from Accounts – all the money there is in existence is all the money there is?
I would add one thing however and you have done much work on this yourself.
There needs to be a thorough and pubic investigation into any Trump/Putin/Russia link through the financial systems of this world.
The idea that high finance can be used to process money from theft has got to be pursued and ended. The evidence is in that system somewhere. It needs to be pulled out and learnt from and never tolerated again. And the people who have enabled this need to go to prison for a long time and have their earnings confiscated. I’m tired of these ‘untouchables’ – including Switzerland, which should be sanctioned most severely and made the international pariah it actually is for once.
I think what happens behind closed doors today at the supposedly “Ukraine security summit” will have far reaching effects.
It’s notable that the US will not be involved and I’d imagine it will become a much wider conference about security now that the USA is not a partner.
We’re now making a new global “Ancient Mystic Society of No Homers”
Well let’s begin at the first obvious point , that would be to get a centre left government voted in to power by the UK electorate .
No such party exists unless the current Labour Party changes direction in government , the very same incumbents who worked behind the scenes to undermine and destroy Jeremy Corbyn almost every single day for four years .
Then there’s the much applauded EU by the left which is neoliberal to it’s core and due to the shift in Europe it’s parliament is moving ever more to the right .
The Overton window doesn’t look too promising , to say the least .
The Left’s wish list for a better and fairer society which obviously comes from a good place and it’s participants have great intentions but none the less I fear it won’t or cannot reach the ears of enough of the electorate who can put it in power .
The Overton window will only change in the favour of the left if and when events play out as they did following the end of WW2 .
I’m sorry to be so negative but unfortunately it is what it is .
Rachel Reeves’ presence in the Starmer/Zelensky meeting made my skin crawl. The UK didn’t need to platform the ‘handing over of the money’ to Ukraine from the dimmest ever occupant of No 11.
Ukraine are defending our interests every single day and they are paying with the blood of innocents. £2.2 billion (why was it a bloody loan!) is a piffling amount for us to contribute to those heroes and I deeply resent Zelensky being used as a prop to make the awful Reeves look good.
“Requires that Rachel Reeves stop pretending that the world is as it is…”
What does that mean? You can’t pretend that the world is as it is, though you can pretend that the world is not as it is…
It looks like too much haste on my part early in the morning.
I thought I’d look up just what mineral resources there are in Ukraine and, ignoring Trump’s incorrect “raw earths”, came up with the following from NBC – “The entire global rare earths market is worth only about $12 billion. As of 2022, about 20% of Ukraine was occupied by Russian forces, and about 40% of the country’s minerals and rare earths were in that area.” Furthermore another source says that the resources were quantified by the late Soviet Union and it’s not reliable.
BTW, I wonder how many readers actually listened to the White House press onference in its entirety? I did. The “clothing” issue was fairly early on, and Trump said he had no issue with that. Then the mainstream press’ edits made it look like the dress issue had triggered the whole argument. Not that I’m condoning Trump’s behaviour at the end.
I watched it all
I’ve watched the whole press conference too , what’s interesting is how the mood changed when Vance talked of diplomacy ending the conflict .
It was at this point that Zelenskyy started to get irritated and rolled out a number of diplomacy agreements that hadn’t been honoured by Putin going back to 2014 , he also said if you did the math that the previous Trump government hadn’t helped him either .
It quickly when downhill from that point on .
I’m not condoning the Trump and Vance attitude towards Zelenskyy but none the less it was Zelenskyy who fired the first shots so to speak .
You watched a diffent conference to me.
Defending himself against attacks is not firing first shots, at least not by any definition I know.
I am happy to post differences if opinion, but I think you need to exchange your political biases to continue here.
Richard , tell you what I’ll save you the trouble and I’ll be gone and leave you to your echo chamber .
You told me all I needed
Sometimes it takes time for trolls to emerge
And isn’t it odd that only trolls talk about echo chambers?
They also can’t answer questions
In addition, they use false names. This correspondents name is nothing like Andrew Marsden
Of massive concern to me is the deep penetration of US firms in the institutions of the UK, from Palantir in the NHS to BlackRock and the US bases……we are seriously vulnerable on many fronts. Not asleep, but governed by those groomed by the US for decades, with some opposition groomed by the US, some by Russia.
Spotted and listened to this yesterday Richard
Interesting to say the least
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHX_jNS6cDI
I will try to take a look.