The USA has rejected Trump.

The midterm election results are staggeringly good for the Democrats, and terrible for the Republicans.

As I write this, The New York Times is projecting that the Democrats will hold 55 of the 100 seats in the US Senate, with the Republicans becoming the minority party, with 45 seats.

In the House, the forecast is that the Democrats will hold 256 seats, with the Republicans at 178.

In both cases, the Democrats have overturned Republican majorities.

The swing to the Democrats appears to be over 13% of the popular vote.

The rejection of the Republicans is so strong that in Texas they now have a Democrat governor and senator, which is staggering in a state always known as a Republican stronghold, and the more so because the governor is Hispanic.

As astonishing as that is Kansas electing a Democrat senator for the first time in 92 years.

In the Michigan bellwether Senate election, where Abdul El-Sayed is the Democrat candidate who has been the focus of much attention and racist abuse from Donald Trump, it looks very likely that he will win, with an increase in their vote share.

The rejection of Trump is overwhelming.

The reasons for this are, of course, not hard to see. It was Trump's error of judgement that resulted in the war in Iran, and the increase in the cost of living, and in particular the price of road fuel and energy in the USA. People are making it clear how angry they are about that. They know that this conflict was not necessary. They know that Trump promised not to get involved in further wars, and did. They know that they are paying a heavy price for that. Their anger is clear.

Whether it can be said with certainty that the result would have been as clear if Trump had not made this catastrophic strategic mistake, at a cost to the USA and the world at large, is not so apparent, but the underlying disquiet is now clearly real.

Whatever the reason, the message is apparent.

Firstly, the tables have turned on Trump. With majorities in both houses, the Democrats can begin to investigate what they rightly feel to be his misdemeanours.

Secondly, although these majorities do not give the Democrats control over the war with Iran, they do give them significant control over the budget and so significant leverage on that issue.

Thirdly, with clear majorities, they can now pass legislation to reverse the abuses of the last two years. Trump can veto these as President, and has said he will, but in doing so he would lay the pathway for a Democrat president in 2028.

Fourthly, the likelihood of a Democrat clean sweep in 2028 would appear to be very high. The probability of Democrats reversing Republican vote rigging in the meantime also seems to be high.

And the good news is that during the course of the night Donald Trump told the New York Times that he would accept these election results, and so clear are they that it would seem very difficult indeed for him to do anything otherwise.

The USA has had the change of course it needed overnight. But it is important not to get overexcited. The Democrats remain a party dominated by corporate interests, and are profoundly neoliberal. What does matter now is the fight for the heart and soul of that party as the 2028 election looms, because what will be needed then is a presidential candidate willing to put people, not corporate power, first. This did not happen during the Clinton, Obama and Biden years. The coming presidential primary elections are where this battle is going to be fought, and where the chance for real change will be determined.

The Democrats can celebrate, and I can be delighted to see the USA turn it back on fascism, but the battle is not won yet. Whilst corporate money controls US politics, the decline of the country, its economy, and its influence will continue.

PDF of article