Over the weekend, the latest opinion polls suggested Labour might now have 30% electoral support, with Reform enjoying 22%, the Conservatives at 20%, the Greens at 10%, and the Liberal Democrats at 9%.
This polling came from Opinium.
The PollCheck rolling average of the last seven polls that they monitor suggested that the current state of the parties is as follows:
That there has been a Burnham bounce is undoubtedly true. How this will survive a Budget this week is unclear, but with Labour having a very clear lead over the Tories at present, and all other parties showing downward trends in support (excepting the SNP and Plaid Cymru, which are not shown on this chart, but with the support for both damaging Labour's prospects), all of this data suggests that my suspicion that Andy Burnham might still go to the country this year remains a prospect we have to consider.
An unambitious budget, with one or two headline giveaways this week, will be the sign that this is his plan.
Remember, Burnham was part of Gordon Brown's government when Brown failed to exploit the opportunity he had when he was chosen as Labour leader to replace Tony Blair by calling an early election. As a result, Andy Burnham spent 16 years outside government. I do not think he is going to risk that again.
I could, of course, be wrong, but I still think he might go to the country very soon, even if Labour loses a significant number of seats as a consequence, because every agenda that he is now talking about suggests that a Labour–Liberal Democrat coalition would suit him very well indeed.
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For context, Labour’s maximum lead under Brown was 11%. The poll figures were Labour 44%, Conservative 33%, Libdems 15%.
But the world has changed since then.
If Burnham went to the polls and if Labour had a majority of seats on 30% or so of the vote, they would not have a mandate to run the country. It would not be a legitimate government. We need a proportional system, preferably using STV to elect governments with a true mandate.
Agreed
You will have to take in to account the fact LABOUR had a huge majority in Scotland and Wales , that is now gone.
English people will most likely vote REFORM, if they pull their finger out and sort themselves out.
As said previously the nation has changed there is no longer a red or blue area supporting each party come what may.
Lab will loose all it’s support in Scotland and also in Wales loosing 25% of it’s seats.
Cons are near extinction and Reform with their millions can effect the result by positive propaganda.
It all depends how gullible the people of England are regarding Labs lies about rejoining Europe or the EU or whatever they call it as that is a dying programme.
Hope you actually post this as the points are valid and will effect the future of the nation over the next several years especially when the UK cost of living rises and more and more people become disillusioned with government. With polling numbers dropping to an all time low, I predict less than 50% of the voting population will actually vote.
I am sorry, but your claims do not align with the data.
It’s hard to see what he has actually done to make him consider going to the polls earlier. But if the Lib Dems want to prop him up…………….it seems to me just another slide towards calamity – the huge resources at the disposal of Farage need to be called out sooner rather than later.
Thank you, Richard.
The Whitehall chatter is that the Brexit carrot dangling is aimed at getting the yellow Tories, some blue Tories and the Greens into line for a spring poll.
Unfortunately, Mahmood is rallying the Brexiteers. When I heard that, I thought Mahmood is the new Patel and Braverman. Plus ca change…
I suspect you are right