I wrote yesterday's post on the need for a new approach to national security and resilience with what I admit was a growing sense of dismay.
I often suggest, when it's asked why I write so much, that my reason for doing so is to understand the world in which I live, and as that post developed and the logical conclusions that it suggested became apparent, it became increasingly clear how great the threats that we face at present are.
Simultaneously, it was obvious that so much of the current debate on what our politicians call defence, which can be described as actions dependent upon armaments, is inappropriate in a world where by far the largest threats that we face come from the actions of the USA and Israel. Each poses a threat far greater than anything that Russia might create, and yet the acknowledgement of this is only seemingly recognised by minority parties in this country, whose bravery in doing so I welcome.
At the same time, my sense of foreboding grew. That worries me because I am, essentially, an optimistic person. That sentiment has always been based on awareness of the need to recognise, appraise, and then, if necessary, take action to mitigate risks, whether immediate or remote. It would be entirely possible to suggest that there have been short-term occasions in my life when I have underachieved as a result. I have, however, always presumed that life is a long-term game and, as a consequence, I have made a habit of prioritising long-term advantage over short-term wins. Nothing has ever persuaded me of the inappropriateness of this strategy, which has served me well.
That said, no one who has read what I've had to say here, in my books, and elsewhere over the last 20 years or so could doubt that I have, over that period, questioned the neoliberal folly of adopting a strategy that I think is the exact opposite of that which I have personally adopted. Throughout the neoliberal world, in our country, and within our economy, short-term gains have been chosen in priority to long-term sustainability. I have long warned that there would be a price to pay for this, and my fear now is that the day of reckoning for this folly is very close.
Perhaps I should have recognised that the USA was always going to be the place to pull neoliberalism down because it has always pursued excess to a greater degree than anywhere else, and it was always that excess that was going to destroy the structure of this particular form of capitalism, which is now at the heart of the threat to our well-being.
Perhaps, too, I should have recognised the threat from Israel, because I remember the 1967 Six-Day War, and the Middle East crisis that evolved from 1973 onwards. Israel's unwillingness to live within its agreed international borders has been a continual theme throughout my lived memory, and that this, too, might reach a point where its aspirations created crisis should, I suspect, have been more obvious to me than it was until recent years.
That said, the sense of foreboding comes from something more. The international scene is disastrous. Our economy is heading for crisis, but what is at least as worrying is that, first, many politicians seem completely unaware of this, and, second, many people are indifferent to the fact that these things might happen because they see them as a necessary precursor to change. Far too many of that latter group also appear to want a far-right solution.
I sense that all around me. I now know that I live in a community where maybe 30% of people are willing to vote for neo-fascism, with all the cruelty that is implicit in that. Worryingly, there is nothing unusual in saying that now. Almost certainly, you live in such a community, too. That worries me most of all.
A sense of toleration has been lost. To look at a representative issue, I am aware that there has been a flood of new donations to the RNLI in response to the attacks on it, its operations to save people in the English Channel, and the threats made to its crews, but I am equally aware that many people are now deeply hostile to what it is doing. Hearts and minds are becoming increasingly divided, and that troubles me greatly.
In all this, there is a personal challenge. Do I give up, cower in the corner, and admit that I've been promoting something that people do not want, even though, by definition, if 30% of people are now supportive of neo-fascism, 70% are not? Alternatively, do I take a risk and continue to fight for what I think is right?
There is not really a choice in that, but I am aware of the divisions, hostilities, and sometimes straightforward nastiness that pervade this country now, and it is precisely because I am so worried that our lacklustre neoliberal politicians cannot see the responsibility that falls upon them to address the resulting crises that we face that I feel the need to keep working on things like a necessary alternative budget, as well as the book that I am writing.
I worked on both yesterday and enjoyed the writing process. The urgency, however, feels very high to me right now. I fear we are near a tipping point, where the acceptance of fascism, racism, misogyny, prejudice, and intolerance is becoming normalised. The BBC appears to me to be at the forefront of this, and that is something new, and we all have a duty to resist it. The alternatives are too horrible to imagine, for everyone, including many of those who now think such things are a solution.
The reality can be expressed in a new way:
First they came for the RNLI
And I did not speak out
Because I was not in a lifeboat crew.Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me.
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It feels a bit like the end of the Callaghan Government in 1979, but worse.
Not just an economic idea running out of steam but then throw in war and disruption to essential raw materials.
Yes, Martin Niemöller’s quote is always a good reminder.
Speaking out against injustice is always important to do.
Even more important is to show alternatives.
Alternatives that can effectively fight & banish this injustice.
I think that’s what you’re doing quite well.
And you’re inspiring others to do it as well.
I mean, in the last 10 months, since I came on board your blog via your Youtube-Videos, I’ve started writing to political parties and I even started discussions in forums.
Things I’ve never thought I’d do as I was very reluctant about expressing my ideas, thinking they were too underdeveloped.
And also because I was afraid of the backlash.
It’s surely not on a big scale but I think it shows that you’re at least not at all alone in this fight, for the things you / we think are right. 🙂
Thank you
We need to give one another moral support and reassurance, because all of us have these ups and downs you have described, as things deteriorate around us.
We had a session yesterday at our small church gathering, along similar lines, about being: “courageous, present, and truthful”, when we are in the midst of so much divisiveness and hate.
On resilience, my interest is cyber-resilience. Two major issues I am looking at – the Beacon-CRM data breach (which incidentally included RNLI supporter data) and secondly, the Microsoft/Azure “b2cloginDOTcom” system used by many websites to manage logins through a shared and vulnerable Microsoft/Azure gateway. (IMHO a crazy idea, like issuing multiple copies of masterkeys)
The privacy protection NoScript browser addon breaks this b2cloginDOTcom process, and none of the client sites want to talk about it, the latest being OSMaps. I’m also hitting a brick wall on the Beacon CRM issue – the official line being “no evidence of harm” – which I don’t accept because of a personal experience which again, no one wants to talk about.
My view is that ALL organisations should be regarded as vulnerable, and no one’s data is safe – and the number and sheer size of recent databreaches is very worrying. We should all assume our data HAS been compromised, and be on alert.
Gov’t of course, doesn’t wish to discuss this either.
Sometimes, I get tired, and decide I’m being paranoid about privacy and cybersecurity, then I remind myself about NSO/Pegasus, and exploding pagers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegasus_(spyware)
KUTGW & do whatever is necessary to guard your emotional and mental wellbeing. We win in the end.
Thank you
And now we have Chinese electric cars which all send audio and video back to China as well as being (at least in part) remotely controlled….
Not sure if this Australian link will work in the UK.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-21/byd-hacked-by-cybersecurity-expert-vehicle-sabotage-surveillance/107139482
What is your conclusion?
The BBC doesn’t engage in the overt, state-directed fabrication seen in totalitarian media. However, because its institutional survival depends on the British state and its leadership is closely tied to the political establishment, its news coverage naturally tends to operate within what it considers are the boundaries of mainstream political discourse. We can all see how the BBC’s coverage, especially during interviews, has shifted. Their coverage of asylum seekers, for example, regularly portrays them as an irritation that should simply be removed. Their neoliberal (and untruthful) stance on economic issues like government debt and spending on social security has become much more pronounced. If the BBC’s coverage is a reliable measure of the general direction of our political establishment, then we no longer need to worry about the far right gaining power. It already has. Resistance tactics need to change accordingly.
@Cliff B
You say “The BBC doesn’t engage in the overt, state-directed fabrication seen in totalitarian media.”
Alas, I can’t agree – my nickname for the BBC is “Pravda on Thames”, as I regard it as entirely captured by the viewpoint and forces continually exposed by Richard in this Blog, stuffed as it is by the spokespersons for that viewpoint.
There’s no need for a Big Brother censorship apparatus when a media outlet acts from internal restraint.
I’m sure many of you will recall Chomsky’s takedown of Andrew Marr’s assertion of independence and impartiality, when Chomsky said Marr would not have got where he had, unless he had displayed the “correct” responses.
Much to agree with.
We’re on the same page Andrew. I think the only difference between the BBC and the media of an overtly totalitarian State is that the BBC doesn’t need to be told what to say; it knows. Its news and current affairs output is shifting to the right across a broad spectrum. It’s an ongoing process. I suspect we haven’t seen the worst of it yet. But we can already clearly see that the BBC’s belief is that the centre of gravity of British (or at least English) politics is now firmly on the far right. What that really means is that it’s not the BBC that’s the problem, it’s the journey the UK is being taken on. And it’s much broader than what happens at Westminster. I think the position is much more serious than many realise. We are in very deep trouble.
The BBC is even worse in Scotland. It long since gave up all pretence at being an impartial public service broadcaster, and now acts as the self-appointed propaganda unit of the British state in Scotland. As a result, polling data shows trust in the BBC is markedly lower in Scotland than anywhere else (with the exception of the nationalist community in Northern Ireland).
Agreed
I think (hope) that a significant proportion of those fascist party voters are expressing discontentment with the status quo with, at best, only a superficial understanding of the implications.
I’m travelling in Berlin where regional elections took place yesterday and it’s exactly the same situation – rejection of the traditional mainstream parties splitting the vote both left and right. This in Germany, of all countries, where 20th century history is so apparent.
Whilst 30% are prepared to vote for far right parties, a lot don’t really understand what they are voting for and need educating. I appreciate it’s highly unlikely a Reform voter would read this blog, but the more voices out there countering the current neoliberal narrative the better. You reminded me to watch Heather Cox Richardson and her friend Jo and their weekly What the Heck Happened. I love their laughter despite the terrible things happening in their country which as historians they understand better than most.
We need people prepared to speak out, but it’s really tough, so in whatever way best (I suspect a day bird watching in your case) you need to protect your emotional wellbeing, make sure you do it. I remember being belittled by a friend when I commented the week of the start of the 2008 crash that this was something big like the Wall Street crash. We can debate which was worse, but I think history would now agree with my view. 2008 and it’s outworking is still being used to justify austerity,not helped by Brexit and COVID.
Thank you.
And I think the coaches were both mega, but different.
I think you mean crashes, not coaches. And I agree. Although very different, both have had a huge impact economically and socially. I guess we still can’t see the full impact of the 2008 crash, but it’s hit younger generations much harder than those who already had property assets.
Autocorrect and my terrible typing – sorry.
I see nothing wrong in looking into the abyss, and the abyss looking into you, looking the gorgon in the face etc. The abyss in humans exists anyway under certain conditions which are developing right now. But facing up and confronting the prospects in front of us is not crying wolf or being negative.
But you (your support for the RNLI) and the other respondents above are quite correct ( RobertJ’s “courageous, present, and truthful”) .
It is a feature of our post-Thatcher society that has basically suffocated civic society where the ruled can air their opinions to their rulers. In a nutshell, first they came for the unions, then they came for the Greenham Common peace protesters, then the Quakers, and now……….well, there you go.
Why? We know why. The rulers have been bought. One thing I know from history though is that even in the midst of this is that a sizeable bunch of fellow human beings will not approve of this lurch to the right. There is always hope, there is always real humanity, no matter how bad and biased the media does its job in telling us who we really are.
Thank you, genuinely.
“Two Tribes” by Chris Beckett. Set in post-Brexit UK and also in the future where the climate disaster has occurred. The right whinge turns itself into a quasi-military force and civil war breaks out. One can see the gradual emergence, given current events of a move towards this. Books like it gloss over the influence of other players (state & quasi-state) that try to influence what passes for the UK gov, thus contributing to a growing sense of powerlessness amongst UK citizens (FFS the gov can’t even sort out the ponzi scheme that its Thames Water).
Richard you may be correct that neoliberal economics will collapse in the USA as a result of the US/Israeli neocons blood thirst to destroy Iran.
What will replace it though? A nastier version of neoliberal economics?
Relying on mr market as shown during the still ongoing US/Israeli attack on Iran to keep world trade flowing and the US stock market high is utterly mad when the real evidence shows that would be and is going to be a serious global economic downturn from day one of the war.
As you say the UK elites are willfully blind to the real world,believing that they can keep going regardless.
The UK has never been self sufficient. The Tories/Labour faith in neoliberalism means the UK never plans for the obvious ” what happens if??”.
Plucky, unique, Britain is about to experience being alone, but trusting Trump etc, is going to be very unpleasant in the impending economic chaos.
What are your answers?
The 30% mentioned seek oneness, feel threatened by complexity and difference but are also bothered by fairness. The NHS and old style unions appeal to this group, their traditional homes have been deeply undermined, at the same time they are aggrieved by their loss of status, and their sense of normative order.
Yes, they found a new home and are drawn to billionaire authoritarianism because it promises to restore their desire for oneness and so might overturn a political order to achieve it – redress their loss of status
Interestingly much of FtF core messages about fairness, community and courageous state would speak to the values of this group.
IMHO the likes of Farage Trump etc have ploughed much money into understanding the psychology of this group and using SM, targeted comms to capture them, and feed division.
I try to understand them as the former backbone of our society, and part of our human diversity.
Noted.
During the late eighties and early nineties my father (ex Naval Officer) was Hon Sec of the Filey Lifeboat, ie the guy who said “launch”… He also was a staunch member of the Conservative Party. He has been dead now for over 30 years, and I frequently wonder what he would make of our present crises, for all those years back he and I agreed on very little in the political realm, but as everything has lurched rightward I would think he would be horrified at today’s Conservatives/Reform voters, the anti scientific views on climate and agriculture. Then I think how would he fight back ? How can I fight back? Just each of us doing our bit, write letters to our MPs, go to demo’s, call out racism, injustice and unfactual twaddle when you can, grow your own food.
But one thing worth noting is a conversation I had with my father in late 70’s. I wanted to hear what motivated him to sign up to become a pilot. I was expecting his reply ,”to fight fascism, the persecution of Jews etc,” but no, his reason was Hitler invading Poland and because UK was asking for Defence of the Realm. He pointed out he knew nothing about fascist politics or the death camps until after the war. The point of telling this is that to get to the far right voter you cannot rely on talking about history. You cannot rely on facts and figures. I believe the only way things can change is a mixture of grass roots activism from below, and getting to those that rule over us that their attitudes are not acceptable, and then maybe they, our “rulers” will wake up and lead , and change things to bring those Rabid Righties to heel.
Very many thanks. Appreciated.
https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/09/21/foreboding/#comment-1093969
“What is your conclusion?”
1. Aussie gov – sack whoever decides cyber security regs on consumer products. Having regs on smart washing machines before smart cars is reactive rather than precautionary.
2. Don’t do banking on the phone. Limit your phones accessibility to remote access, and allow microphone and camera access by app, when required, not by default. Similarly for bluetooth – except when you need it – lock down the consents to the bare minimum.
3. Don’t tell SIRI/Microsoft/Apple/Google your private stuff. If you insist on smart speakers, & doorbells, restrict their access to such stuff. I accept that for those coping with restricted mobility, old age, blindness etc. this is impossible – in which case the devices should be better regulated NOW, by so-called governments.
4. Boycott tech bro corporates. Inconvenient – but every day brings another reason why it makes sense. I trust a large community of peer user volunteer techie geeks, all with their eyes open, & DIStrust huge corporate sociopaths who have already proven themselves untrustworthy, in respect of competence/integrity.
5. Don’t use shared login platforms from Meta, Google, Microsoft (increasingly difficult – over 6,014 subdomains using b2clogin.com, where you have no choice, including financial websites – a charity donation platform and credit union that I am subscribed to using b2clogin.com. What a target! (MS/Azure is already compromised by the way, and in the headlines – they are the people behind b2clogin.com).
6. Journalists to write more articles about CURRENT damage caused by USA and Israel, to balance up the ones about China. After all – we KNOW plenty about the illegal actions of both countries and their mega-corporations and unhinged governments & the mega-failures of their platforms.
Robert J, thank you for this. Can you recommend any source of information that explains in more detail and shows you how? I use eBay, and sign in the way I always have, but a pop-up keeps urging me to sign in via google. Is that what you mean by shared login platforms?
I also need to read up on payment intermediaries such as paypal; not having a credit card, I feel this gives me a bit of safety buying online, but I wonder if there is a better way.
I’m happy for Richard to give you my email.
Will do
As may have been observed, I am not an optimist. However, please notice some hopeful events occurring in Canada and the USA. By hopeful, I mean that these are impetus events toward constraining the sway of neoliberal economics and the ecocidal fossil fuel industries.
1. Canadian Prime Minster Mark Carney and French President Emmanuel Macron have met on a small island that is still France despite being geographically in Canada, and Macron has extended to Canada an invitation to join the EU as an adjunct member, whatever that might be. Mr. Carney is the most popular PM Canada has ever had, surpassing Pierre Trudeau in that regard, because he has been indefatigably clear about protecting Canada and standing up to Trump.
2. Trump has blustered about needing nothing Canadian and has imposed 50% tariffs on many Canadian goods; Canada has retaliated with counter-tariffs. But the data show that of the diesel imported into the USA, Canada supplies 84-95%%. Canada can export that diesel elsewhere, via marine terminals and tankers. In a structurally tight global market, losing this supply triggers a massive marginal price shock that ripples through the entire U.S. supply chain. ~ 76% of all commercial trucks in the U.S. run on diesel. When diesel costs surge, major shippers like UPS and Amazon immediately pass these expenses on to businesses via aggressive fuel and logistics surcharges. The United States consumes roughly 120 million gallons of on-highway diesel every day. According to the American Action Forum, every $1.00/gallon increase inflicts a $120 million daily tax on the U.S. economy.
3. On Friday Trump banned CNN, Politico, and MSNOW from the White House because he objected to their coverage of him. Fox News Media, ABC News, CBS News, and NBC News have now suspended their television coverage of Trump.
.
Thank you
So many good responses to your post, Richard; you can see how much we appreciate your work. I wrote occasional letters to my MP before, but not about economics or tax, so my experience has been much like that of Markus M.
Look after yourself and take time with family and feathered friends. I have to go in the sea, dig my garden and escape into fiction, for the foreboding feels as if it is in the air we breathe. Work helps, as does socialising. Being part of this community has moved from being a source of educational material and thoughtful analysis, to including sanity-support in a mad world.
Today I came across a digest of good news, mostly environmental, on a YouTube channel run by Sam Bentley, and will watch a bit more to see how it holds up. Lots of smart and enthusiastic people, many of them young, buiding, inventing and researching. Has anyone seen the floating islands of vegetation launched (and tethered) on Bristol’s waterways?
Thank you
I have to say I feel foreboding after reading this report into the influence that the military has in our country
https://www.forceswatch.net/wp-content/uploads/Warrior_Nation_web-1.pdf
From page 32 onwards it’s pretty clear that the high command do not view themselves as being fully subordinate to the elected government of the day – a fact which is perhaps not a surprise to anyone who remembers what happened to Harold Wilson in 1976
With their incessant demands for more “defence” spending – taken explicitly from the welfare budget – it strikes me that we have an incredibly arrogant and entitled military elite which is rather expert at manipulating the public’s goodwill towards the forces.
To my mind, foreboding as a warning of difficulty to come is a good instinct, but must never lead to paranoia or the belief that those one opposes are not human, though one should also not be gullible about the existence of evil and of folly.
There is always room for cooperating with people in helping and supporting what benefits, though while the ability to be a guiding light is a precious gift, it’s also a burdensome responsibility, and yet it has its own rewards.
Never stop aiming for a better world. Muslims have a tradition that if the end of the world, so to speak, comes along while you have a sapling you want to plant, go ahead and plant it while you still can – there’s always room for positive action.
Apologies for all the homilies, but I think we need to encourage each other to live up to the best of ourselves and not give in to the destroyers of attention and the purveyors of divisiveness, nor yet those overcome by despair or hopelessness.
Thank you
I frequently have this sense. It happened a lot over the course of this summer’s drought and when I read reports on climate and biodiversity loss….and the endless talk of preparing for war on the radio, etc …… I think what you write offers so many positive options and often talk about this blog but I think many people just can’t or won’t engage because it’s all too terrifying to think about even when you’re trying to offer positives.
I was listening to a playlist this morning that I’d made a while ago for a dance session on chaos and resistance –
Eve of Destruction by Barry McGuire was included and seems as relevant as ever – I tried to include a link but you tube wouln’t let me
🙂 Thank you