I keep on saying that this autumn is going to be mightily difficult.
Fuel shortages will hit hard.
Food prices will rise. Fertiliser shortages and drought guarantee that.
El Niño will make things uncomfortable in ways that are still unpredictable.
The AI bubble has to burst. This time is not different. It never is.
And as the FT noted overnight:
The US military has struck two Iranian rocket launchers on an island in the Strait of Hormuz, the first American attack on Tehran's forces in more than a month.
Iran swiftly retaliated by firing missiles at Jordan.
The war continues.
And we have a new prime minister who seems to have only one gear, and it's reverse. That's all we have seen so far: a backtracking from any promises once made.
None of this feels like a foundation for optimism to me.
I wish it were otherwise.
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Yes, even if we all adopt strategies to mitigate the damage of corrupt and incompetent leadership people will suffer. The underlying cause of that suffering is the half-century neoliberal experiment which approaches its apogee. But since the voting public seems incapable of mustering the courage to vote for genuine change, preferring always to vote against the last Bad Thing (and for the next and identical bad thing) the prospect for the next few years is dismal. We would rather horde toilet paper and brown rice and yell at refugees than vote for a social democratic party. Bizarre.
I am more optimistic than you.
Fuel shortages – natural gas seems vunerable? Perhaps even diesel.
UK consumers might have a shock this winter. Reserves are low and thin, when they should be at their highest. Traded gas prices are rising sharply (176p per Therm today (1 Therm is 29kW.hrs)) and trending up, similar to the autumn of 2021 (Ukraine crisis). Gas prices briefly peaked at 640p per Therm in 2022, will that be exceeded with the Gulf supply choked off. Global competition for supply will be fierce, with a bumper year for traders.
I wonder if Burnham will touch on his Govt’s energy strategy today?