War is not going away. Nor is the risk of recession

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Netanyahu is in the USA right now. His aim is to get Trump to continue and even expand the futile war on Iran that these countries have been pursuing.

Two stories have come to my attention on this theme this morning. First, there is this from the New York Times:

The infographic shows the number of attacks from either side in this war over its timeline. There is little sign of de-escalation, and there were Iranian ballistic missile attacks last night. The war is ongoing.

The second is an FT story. They reported:

US crude stockpiles fell sharply last week as local oil refineries boosted activity to take advantage of surging fuel prices driven by renewed hostilities with Iran.

Commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 7.2mn barrels and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 3.8mn barrels, as refiners drew down stocks to make products such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel.

They went on to note that US refineries are currently operating at near 100% capacity to meet demand in the USA and beyond. China has reacted to this conflict by cutting oil use. The market-based approach in the USA is to exploit high prices to sell as much oil as possible by depleting stocks.

Only one of these options is viable beyond the short term.

Only one delivers energy security.

Only one avoids the risk of recession.

And as the war continues, the obvious likelihood that China will be its one big winner is becoming ever clearer.

As for the rest of us? We're living on borrowed time, pretending there is no crisis and all will turn out alright in the end, because that is the promise neoliberal politicians who claim markets can solve all problems always make.

There is just one problem with that claim: it is not true. Markets that reflect short-term sentiment when exploiting the short-term opportunity for profit that this war provides are manipulating prices for their own gain on a daily basis, but the reality is that this conflict is continuing, at cost to us all, and the outcome is going to be ugly. A recession is going to happen, and it will begin when those oil reserves are depleted, as they surely will be sometime soon.

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