In this morning's video, I am warning again about the risk of a global recession.
I am not the only one to do so. These are all headlines in one FT newsletter this morning.
The reality of this war might just be dawning on the world.
The consequences for ordinary people will be dire.
But since when did a fascist seeking dictatorship worry about such things?
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How on Earth will raising interest rates bring down inflation that is directly related to an illegal war on an external country pursued by the US as opposed to inflation due to excess domestic consumer demand?
You have to have removed yourself from reality to think that.
2 reasons:
1) Neoclassical, New Keynesians and Monetarists agree that the resulting unemployment will give firms more wage bargaining power to suppress wages thus off-setting cost rises in other parts of a business’s operations to maintain profit for Capital.
2) Attracts an inflow of hot money causing an ex rate appreciation which also reduces the relative price of imported commodities and materials which also helps Capital maintain profit.
Do you think that answer makes sense?
Why post it if it does not?
Yesterday as I read about the (predictable) collapse of the US/Iran ceasefire, I also saw this story from the IMF. It seems to come from a different galaxy, let alone a different planet. (IMF=Imaginary Monetary Farce?)
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jul/08/imf-upgrades-uk-growth-forecast-as-fears-over-impact-of-iran-war-diminish
Intergalactic politics is in fashion this week.
🙂
I remember in the 1970s the FT headlines were all about how much care we gave to each other. The UK built atomic power stations and reservoirs because it cared for our energy and water,
Those were better times.
Today’s FT is too neoliberal, it’s all about prices this, inflation and indices. I wouldn’t draw conclusions from headlines written using neoliberal thinking.
I do, precisely because they reflect the worldview.
I do my grocery shopping online with Tesco. Today I have been shocked at the number of items that are currently out of stock:
About 25% of all frozen vegetables
Heinz baked beans
Many different sizes/brands of toilet rolls
Tissues
Deodorant
Crunchies
Cat treats
And that is just looking at the things I buy regularly. Frequently an item goes out of stock just before a price change, but I have never seen as many different items affected as this. Supply chain issues?
All down to oil…in some way or other
I was about to post the same thing except that I do all my shopping in store. I’m noticing increasingly that shelves are either empty or they’ve deftly spread the goods out to make it look as if they aren’t. How long before people notice and start stripping them bare?
Not long
I saw this the other day, as well
The store looked too big for what it had to sell
Admittedly, our small local co-op does not seem to have this problem, as yet
We had the sheer horror of ALL GAZPACHO being out of stock with Ocado as far as today’s delivery was concerned. Such a “first world problem”, of course.
More serious is the disruption to the supply of medicines to pharmacies. As a diabetic, I would be in real trouble if the supply of insulin becomes difficult.
And there is risk of that!
I know, Richard. I was speaking to my GP surgeries clinical pharmacist yesterday. There are “issues” emerging with commonly-prescribed medications such as Ramipril for those with high blood pressure, and Creon for those (like me – don’t develop diabetes) who don’t produce enough enzymes to digest their food properly.
One of the drugs I needed two weeks ago could only be found by phoning around.
I haven’t been able to get soluble aspirin for months.
I have been buying some things I think will become scarce and/or much more expensive (eg my favourite face cream!)
But I struggle with food.
Virtually everything we eat is fresh ie has a life of no more than a week – even flour is around a year!
So now I’m thinking about how we are going to have to change our diet… Tricky when living with a man who can’t digest a lot of things…
I know the problem
You can’t live off tinned oily fish on Ryvita forever, can you?
I’ll come clean. I have water stored, camping meals stashed, gas cylinders for cooking, canned goods, dried beans and vegetables………all done a while back having seen the governments own report that’s now featuring larger in the media. UK is already in poor resilience and, short of bloody revolution, has government going rapidly in the opposite direction.
India is the biggest supplier of generic drugs. The Trump War with the resulting lack of oil has hit Indian production very hard.
This will in turn affect the USA. Why? Guess who supplies over 50% of generic drugs to the USA? Why India of course.
The UK is caught up in this lack of supply issue.
Due to globalisation the UK imports the vast majority of the drugs that are issued through the NHS.
The Trump War is impacting on every aspect of life and things are going to get a lot worse.
I fear so
Medicines are a worry. Creon especially, which has only recently been properly available again after years of real difficulties related to production (fortunately, because of a mistake by a pharmacy some time ago, I have a three-month buffer in hand).
I’ve not yet seen any recent difficulties, though – not for Ramipril, nor for any of my wife’s medications. I’m not confident for later this year, though.
Paul
Of course, Corbyn’s manifesto contained a proposal to create a major generic drug manufacture in UK.