I was not surprised by a report from the New York Times last night, which noted that:
Iranian Forces Say They Closed Strait of Hormuz
Iran's military command blamed the U.S., saying it failed to prevent Israel from violating the cease-fire in Lebanon. Mediators in Pakistan said “technical talks” between the U.S. and Iran to end the war would be held on Sunday.
As the FT added:
The [Iranian] Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday that the crucial waterway would be closed to all vessels as it accused Israel of “crimes” and the US of a “violation of its commitments” under a ceasefire.
As they noted:
Tehran had agreed to gradually reopen the strait under the terms of a memorandum of understanding it signed with Washington on Wednesday. That was meant to be followed by the start of nuclear talks in Switzerland on Friday. But Iran postponed negotiations because of the fighting between Israel and Hizbollah — its most important proxy — in Lebanon.
And who can blame them? If the US signs a deal and is unable to deliver on it, within hours of it supposedly being in place, what else can Iran do?
If the US is serious about its desire for peace and the need to avoid a world depression, which Trump says will happen without the Strait of Hormuz being reopened, then it has to demonstrate that it has the capacity to deliver on its promises, as the aggressor now seeking peace, or Iran has no choice but to respond. That it has done so is entirely predictable and reasonable.
I noted the euphoric response in markets to this supposed deal last week. When will they learn that all that Trump can deliver is publicity stunts to create market volatility from which his entourage can profit, and that peace in the Gulf is still a very long way off as yet? This conflict is a long way from. being over as yet, and probably won't be un til the US endorses severe economic and military sanctions on Israel, which I think are necessary now.
All my warnings about depression to come do, then, remain in place, only now with US Presidential backing, not that, I admit, such a thing counts for much.
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So, the fault lines between Israel and the U.S. are maybe emerging? Or are we seeing the creation of yet another excuse to solve the problem by the worst means possible?
Apparently killing a woman whose only crime was living in Lebanon and working to conserve turtles deserves speech marks on the FT scale of atrocity. Not really a crime, just what the “enemy” claims, then.
The start of the Trump Great Depression is about four weeks away. With the Straits closed that’s when the rapidly falling level of the world’s strategic supplies of oil reach the critical ” we have run out point and are not able to restock”.
Israel appears to want to play chicken with Trump to force him to start bombing Iran again.
The US and Israel believe that Iran can be blamed for the depression. But the world will remember that the US and Israel caused the impending economic catastrophe by bombing Iran.
I think you may well be right.
Your poll on how long it would last did suggest ‘days’, I seem to remember.
Indeed. I didn’t consider hours…
Israel have been sabotaging peace deals, accords and ceasefires since around 1947. Netanyahu has made it his speciality, using invasions, assassination of leaders and negotiators, and bombing raids, all effectively wrecking peace deals and ceasefires.
He prefers war, not only to postpone his domestic corruption trial, not only to avoid war crime investigations, but because Israel want to permanently expand their territory by annexation, and invasion. Continual conflict, whether directly or with proxies, give them that opportunity. Getting rid of Netanyahu is unlikey to significantly improve the situation. Only the international community applying consistent financial and diplomatic pressure to Israel can change their stance, and that seems unlikely.
I really hope that this crisis will bring the emergence of MMT as universally acknowledged.
In my opinion it’s after all the only thing that can establish rather quickly a social cohesion and a safety for people (mainly meant in the first time for people that might lose their jobs in this coming depression).
But at least something like that NEEDS to happen if we don’t want to relive the 1930s / 40s.
Lebanon = “Greater Israel” in the eyes of the zionists. The problem is partly water & the increasing lack thereof. The Litani (& access to it) provides a partial (note that word) response to this. In the longer term, I predict attacks on Israeli de-sal plants etc (for the avoidance of doubt – this is a predication – not advocacy). The core problem in all this is , since 1900/1948 … Israel a settler state predicated on terra nullis – which it never was.