According to Pakistan, the US and Iran are close to signing a Memorandum of Understanding about peace talks to resolve the war in the Gulf.
I emphasise the word “close”.
I also emphasise that this is not a peace agreement. Whatever is said, Memoranda of Understanding are not used to conclude negotiations, but are instead used to record ways in which they might progress.
The existence of such a Memorandum of Understanding is, then, welcome, if it were to happen.
There is, however, a key point to note. Israel is not noted as a party to this supposed Memorandum of Understanding. How, in that case, any understanding will proceed to a conclusion is hard to understand when Iran has persistently made it clear that there must be a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, as well as around the Gulf.
Let us also not forget that we are talking about a commitment from President Donald Trump here, and evidence suggests that these are worthless. Just ask the investors in his cryptocurrency enterprises about that.
So, whilst I welcome this move, because all conflict is eventually ended by peace talks, let me caution against any degree of celebration. Even if a little more oil flows as a result of this deal, we cannot be sure for how long, or how sustainable this situation might be, or whether supply chain disruptions remain avoidable. It was, after all, supply chain disruptions after the Covid reopening that caused the economic problems in 2021, just as supply chain disruptions continued for nine years after World War II.
I could be entirely wrong, but as yet I doubt whether this Memorandum of Understanding changes a great deal in my suggested trajectory for the economy over the remainder of the year. Oil and gas will remain in short supply; other shortages will unfold. Price disruption will follow. Genuine hardship is on the cards for many in the UK, although the worst may be elsewhere.
And still, politicians are not talking about this, so preparations are not being made. Neoliberals remain in denial of the greatest threat to their existence, which will be the failure of all the promises they made.
I'm not being a pessimist. I just think a touch of realism is required.
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When I heard the “news” last night, I was accused of being grumpy – expostulating, indeed. Because (1) I hadn’t heard Israel mentioned, and (2) I assumed Trump was lying. No change there, then.
Two of us
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) is not worth the paper that it is written on.
Do not believe that what ever is “signed by Trump” is a proper treaty.
Expect the US and Israel to continue the “defensive attacks” and Iran to reply. The supply of materials will still be worryingly short.
The MoU is not going to stop the looming economic downturn. But the world neoliberal media, elites etc will continue to blame Iran and not the US and Israel.
There is also a risk that the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran will keep going.
The UK can expect even more austerity.
All it will take is for Israel to launch a ‘defensive’ attack on Iran, in order to force the US back into aggression. They do have form for this.
Trump has no exit from this debacle, except as a loser. He is desperate to find a way out and save face.
I will be taking his MOU with more than a pinch of salt, as it’s clearly Trump’s desperate attempt to fashion a narrative of “making a deal to end the war” that will play to his MAGA base, and allow him to say he has won.
Israel will continue its genocidal attacks on Lebanon and Gaza, thus crossing Iran’s red lines, so there will be no peace agreement. Trump will continue to lie. The rest of the world goes to hell in Trump’s handbasket.
When will this ever end?
A long time in the future. Putin is not out of Ukraine as yet.
Forgive me if I’m off-topic, though the Iran and Ukraine conflicts are deeply intertwined, but am I alone in thinking that today’s news of the boarding of a Russian oil tanker by Royal Marines is bloody stupid, given the lack of preparedness, both politically and militarily, of the UK in the face of the likely retaliation?
Agreed
The plot thickens….
No. Ships have been transmitting the straits despite the political problems but there’s all sorts of rumours around the circumstances and what is going on. There seems to be arrangements for safe passage which have to be in place as some ships have found out (or they need to get lucky). The whole thing looks carefully callibrated to cause economic damage without crashing the global economy.
There is also this Guardian report
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/12/us-secret-mission-oil-hormuz-trump-iran-blockade
There was mention the other day that the USA was managing to move some tankers through the Gulf by stealth. This was hailed as something of a triumph. It seemed that some 20/30 had got out. I would suggest that is not really significant compared with the 100 or so movements every day in normal times.
Agreed
The Guardian article suggests that enough are getting through to stop the global economy collapsing but not enough to stop economic disruption
Disruption can create collapse
I’ll believe Trump is serious about this when he stops Israel’s military aid to address the most potent violator of truces.