I did wonder whether I should, over the weekend, write about the prospect of peace between the USA, Israel and Iran, and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. I decided to back off. The reason was quite simple. I did not trust the news reports coming from the USA that suggested that this possibility was real.
Iran appeared not to confirm it.
Israel appeared too determined to continue the war in Lebanon, and has, in fact, been intensifying its attacks, and the cessation of these appears to still be an Iranian condition for peace.
And then, last night, the USA began bombing Iran again.
My reticence was justified.
Trump might know he needs peace in Iran. For his own domestic agenda, that is true. But he has no idea how to deliver it, and Netanyahu is determined to continue his war, which he believes is the only way in which he can secure his own re-election in the forthcoming general election in Israel.
The likelihood that the stalemate will continue in the Strait of Hormuz is, then, very high, and the probability that all the economic consequences of that, which I have already been explaining, will happen is as high.
I know that there is a desire for things to be otherwise, and that journalists, as a consequence, try to promote any hint of negotiation as if it is a real sign of a thaw, but unless Trump can embrace the possibility of having to back down, accept the reality of his own enormous strategic error in beginning this war, and seek peace, there is no prospect of it. As yet, Trump is nowhere near this position, not least because he knows Netanyahu is not either.
As a result, the world is still being held to ransom by these two fascist madmen, and I use those words advisedly.
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America long ago succumbed totally to the military industrial complex that Eisenhower warned us about.
https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/president-dwight-d-eisenhowers-farewell-address
Israel has consistently sabotaged peace efforts in the region, long before Netanyahu, because it has never accepted the terms on which the UN founded it.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/8/14/less-flexible-just-say-it-nyt-israel-is-sabotaging-a-ceasefire-deal
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=fpas&q=israel+has+always+sabotaged+peace&ia=web
That both states are currently under the control of deranged criminal administrations has simply brought things to a insanely violent head.
There are plenty of other evil tyrants in the world, but none that have managed to threaten our entire global security like the USA and Israel.
The moral vacuum we call the UK Cabinet is thoroughly complicit. How do they live with themselves?
We do not have to live with this, there are better ways of living and loving one another, and they work.
Russia recently fired a nuclear-capable ultra-high-speed rocket into Ukraine. Ukraine can have no way of knowing whether the next rocket might have a nuclear warhead.
Common sense tells us that there is now:
1 no reliable defence against nuclear weapons and
2 no possible justification for any nation to start a nuclear war.
Nonetheless, nuclear-armed US insists that Iran – as yet without a nuclear weapon – should be rid of its enriched uranium. Meanwhile, its ally and partner in illegal warfare, nuclear-armed Israel, demonstrates its contempt for international law.
The world would be safer if all currently nuclear-armed nations were to renounce their possession of nuclear weapons and devote their uranium, their money and their ingenuity to generating electricity and peaceful co-existence. If then, war, threats and sanctions were removed from Iran, its government might willingly devote its enriched uranium to peaceful purposes.
I concede that Israel’s murderous expansionism would still need to be curtailed in some way.
Agreed.
Phony war or phony peace. Take your pick. Mendacity everywhere. All because Trump is worried about the backlash on his popularity (is it a war/is it not – is it over/is it not) and also because he as the inability to concentrate and/or be patient. The real victims (and yes, there are many already) will be the Lebanon now, where Netanyahu will seek the expansion of Israel for sure to add to his trophy of Gaza.
Putin, Netanyahu and Trump are a trinity. The first two claim an historical and mystical relationship (see Tim Snyder for Russia ) with a land where the local people of that land resist the idea and both leaders are prepared to use mass killing.
I have long thought Iran was the ‘necessary enemy’ for both Netanyahu / Likud and for a section of the US to rally the electorate around and to be able to label opponents as weak or traitors and themselves as ‘strong leaders’.
Their heroic image-for all three- is proving to be a mirage and that is a danger. They could be tempted to more extreme means to save the situation.
On a related note: things are not going well for Israel in Lebanon but, neither is it good for the Lebanese:
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/-most-massive-attack-since-ceasefire—iof-bombs-47–towns-i
47 towns & villages – obvs packed with trrists.
“where they make a desert, they call it peace” – tacitus but currently very applicable to Israel.
It is worth noting, the Israeli population is not unhappy with the invasion of Lebanon, just with the casualties that it has caused in the IDF.
One construes that, from an Israeli perspective, the Lebanese should be celebrating the invasion of their country by a foreign power & the destruction of buildings and murder of civilians.
Was the weekend optimism part of the weekly manipulation of the stock market?
By Trump via a false announcement? Probably
Honest apologies are required all round but narcissists have no ability to back down, less so apologise.
In designing and building a politics of care we really need to do something about cluster B personality disorders. Something compassionate I mean, to use their unique skill set in pro-social ways. Aldous Huxley attempted this in “Island”.
I’ve held off saying this because it’s both so obvious and so contentious, however I don’t think it’s spoken about often enough with regard to preventing the exact situation we’re in. Is it the biggest elephant in the room?
This may be simplistic, but it strikes me that every conflict can ultimately be boiled down to the wrongful notion that some people are better than others. And neoliberal capitalism requires this very notion, and so will reliably produce conflict. It’s bat-sh1t crazy to think any other outcome is possible without changing the system!
Congratulations on your 20 years and here’s to the next 20! 🙂
I would put Europe and EU into the category of warmongers, I don’t see any room for diplomacy in Ukraine either. Surely talking is better than bombing.
OK, think of the “What ifs” below as jigsaw pieces and then imagine the picture on the box.
What if the current situation in the Gulf and that in the Ukraine were managed and maintained as perma-wars?
What if the costs of that situation were born by Europe, Russia, China and those Gulf states that couldn’t get their oil and gas to the Mediterranean via pipelines.
What if the TRIPP corridor gave the USA access to & control of Azerbaijan’s riches
What if the US money promoting Alberta’s independence paid off