These are practical steps to protect yourself:

• Pensions: if you are near or are in retirement, take advice now on pension risks and withdrawals and choose the right risk exposure for you.
• Savings: if you hold more than £120,000 in a single bank, split it to stay within the government guarantee limit.
• Your job: this might not be the moment to change employer; job security is more valuable than it looks at times like this.
• Mortgages: You might want to avoid locking in a long fixed rate; consider a variable or one-year deal, as interest rates may fall sharply if the economy crashes.
• Energy: if you can afford a fixed-price contract, it may be worth taking one now before prices rise further.
• Secondhand goods: sell your unwanted items now to realise cash, before a downturn floods the market and prices collapse.
• Cars: do not buy now, but wait for a better-quality used car at a lower price as finance deals unwind, as many might do soon.
• Voting: back parties that believe in state intervention: the Greens, SNP, and Plaid Cymru are most likely to act in your interest when markets fail

The government is not being straight with you. The tools to protect yourself exist, but you need to act before the crash, not after.

This is the audio version:

This is the transcript:

This video is about what you personally can do in the face of something that I think is coming our way, which is a mega financial crisis that is bound to impact your financial well-being.

The Bank of England has confirmed that this risk is real right now. They have said that there are multiple serious risks that are converging that make this event more likely than not, and they are saying that this will impact you.

So what can you do?

Nothing I'm going to say here is financial advice. It is pure and simple practical guidance on what you might do, and the overarching rule is simple. This is the moment to be cautious and take steps to protect your well-being.

Let's be particular. The Bank of England has identified three particular risks that we face at present, although one of them might come in two parts.

First of all, there is a risk of a stock market crash, which is linked to the second risk, which is that the AI bubble might burst. The two are linked together, but the consequences are very real. At the present point in time, shares in the USA are at record highs. Those in the UK are not far off their all-time record, which has been achieved in the last month or so. The fact is, these shares look horribly overvalued in some cases, and the Bank of England is warning as a result that share prices might, as they put it, “adjust”, by which they mean fall heavily, and that will have consequences for you.

The second risk that we face is of an oil crisis, which obviously comes from the war that is going on in Iran, to which there is no solution in sight, and which will therefore have a very real practical impact upon your well-being if you can't get petrol to put in your car.

The third risk is that the shadow banking system, which almost by definition most of us do not recognise exists most of the time, because it is out there in the deep, dark shadows of the financial system, might crash. Why might they do that? Because they have lent vast amounts of money to the most vulnerable companies inside the stock market system. They are horribly exposed to AI, and they are horribly exposed to the risks that are coming from excessive share price speculation. And if the stock market crashes, so too could the shadow banking system and that will then spill over into the banking system itself, and that could cause the sort of economic crash that we saw in 2008.

In fact, it could create something even more serious than that because, then we had one issue that tipped over; now we could have multiple issues doing so at the same time. Together, they create the risk of depression and possibly a 1930s-style recession. That is why you need to take action.

Now, at this moment, the government is not being straight with you about this. The minister supposedly responsible for managing this potential crisis is Darren Jones, who works in the Cabinet Office, and he has played down the risks that he thinks that we face in the media rounds that he has been talking to on television and radio. He says only the oil crisis is of real concern right now, and he claims that if we can get the Strait of Hormuz open again, the big “if” in the whole world economy right now, we will be back to normal within eight months after that reopening happens.

His claim is that this is a temporary supply shock. The price impact will fade away. People do not need to change their behaviour right now; as a consequence, they should be planning to take the holidays they have already booked. There will not be a problem with jet fuel, even though the airlines say that there is, and the fact is that everything he is saying, which can be summarised by the proverbial words, ‘Keep Calm and Carry On' is not true. The advice that he's giving is not consistent with what the Bank of England has said.

The Bank has said this situation is not potentially under control, and that there is a real risk because of the uncertainty that we can't factor into our equations, and that you might need to act accordingly. The government is pretending they know what is happening. The Bank of England is saying they don't. We have to keep our minds open to the possibility that the Bank of England is right and the government is wrong, and therefore, we have to take steps to protect ourselves.

In the face of this serious risk, caution is the rational response. That does not mean you need to panic. It doesn't say that at all. It means you need to think ahead about what you can control. In a situation where there is uncertainty, and that is what I am saying we are living in at the moment, you should be trying to control the things that you can and not worry about the things that you can't.

You can't reopen the Strait of Hormuz yourself.

You can't control the price of shares.

You can't control the future of AI, but all of those things could go wrong, as could shadow banking.

You can control some aspects of your household finances.

You can make decisions about what you're going to do with your life. Those are the things that you need to talk about. Those are the things I'm talking about here.

In the face of uncertainty, do go for caution.

So, for example, if you are nearing retirement, talk to your pension advisor now about what you can do to protect yourself.

If you are retired, and I know many retired people do watch this channel, take advice on when you are taking funds from your pension fund. Talk about how you can secure your position. Do not take unnecessary risks because that might leave you exposed in the long term.

Every decision right now should be taken with downside risk in mind. That's my point. I'm not telling you to be reckless or mad, or ultra-cautious. I am saying you must appraise the risk properly. So, go and see your financial advisor. Think about what you are doing with your money. Do tell them that you want to be cautious. Does that change the decisions you've made?

If you are in employment and you're not worried about your pension, or somebody else is doing that worrying for you, and you haven't got the ability to control it, think about something else. This probably isn't the best time to change jobs. Remember that in a downturn, the last person in is usually the first person out in a company. Changing jobs right now might carry real risk if redundancy follows. So, if you do not need to move at this moment, and only you can decide that, this may not be the moment to do so. Job security is worth more than it appears when markets are falling. Hold your position unless you have strong reason to move right now. That is my very strong suggestion.

At the same time, I have some advice on a very different issue. Turn your unwanted possessions into cash right now. You were once a photographer? You have a pile of kit? Think about selling it. You were once seriously into Otis Redding and have the most amazing collection of his records, and you don't listen to them anymore; think about turning them into money as well. What I'm suggesting is that you look around and wonder how you can improve your cash position and your resilience as a result at this very moment. That matters.

I'm not saying sell things that do matter to you. If these things are important to you and will help you get through any crisis, because you really do need to listen to Otis Redding to get through the day, keep the items in question. Cash is not everything, but if you do have items sitting around that you are not using, and almost all of us have, if we're totally honest, this is the moment to sell them because sometime soon the price of everything that you might have to sell is going to fall in the secondhand market. Why is that? That's because everybody is going to start selling when the downturn hits. That's when everybody realises that cash is king and the market will be flooded. You want to get in before then. So look at eBay, look at Vinted, look at whoever else you want to be selling on and think about flogging your spare stuff now. This is the moment to convert your goods into cash, but it's also a time to think about something else as well.

If you are the sort of person who's into the side hustle, as it is now called, and you are willing to undertake it and declare tax on it, of course, then this might be the moment to think about what you want to create a side hustle in, because as incomes fall, demand will shift sharply towards used rather than new goods in our economy. That is one of the things we see when we have a downturn. This might create a particular opportunity for you if you have a particular expertise in an area, and know how to deal in the goods related to it. But do not buy large quantities of stock as yet, because they will be overpriced at this point in time compared to what is coming soon, and that is key. When you deal in secondhand goods, you have to get your timing right. Now is the time to sell. Now is not the time to buy. But watch conditions and see how they develop, and wonder whether this might be a way to help you get through a crisis, because this is going to happen.

Talking about secondhand items, let's talk about other things like cars. If you're thinking about buying a new car, this may not be the moment to do so. Failed finance contracts are going to become very common, very soon, if everything about the banking crisis that the Bank of England has talked about is going to happen. A lot of car finance deals are financed by people who are in the shadow banking system. They are very keen on these forms of lease contracts, which are now very commonplace with regard to cars, and vast numbers of people buy their cars this way, spending more than they can afford or pushing themselves to limits which will become unaffordable. The number of cars that are going to be returned to finance companies over the next year or so is going to grow, in my opinion. This might not be the moment to buy a car, as a consequence. You could wait and look for a better quality, lower-priced secondhand car soon. That's my point here. Just hang on if you can.

Let's also talk about mortgages, because for many people, this is the big deal. If you can get a deal now that you can afford to pay, and you think it leaves you a margin for error, this might be the moment to take it on your mortgage, but I add a word of caution, and here the equation is very difficult to guess upon.

You might not want to fix your rate for too long because rates could fall with better government policy. Remember what happened after that; the Bank of England let interest rates tumble from around 5% base rate to near enough nothing, and that could happen again if we have another financial crisis. That might be the precondition for government survival. They might know that. They might force that upon markets. So you don't want to fix your mortgage at the moment for too long; you might even want to think about having a variable rate whilst this matter develops to see where it goes. The risk is that the rate could go up, and indeed, at the moment they are, but my belief is that in the long term, they could come down. You might need to do a trade-off of risks here. Take a one-year deal. Don't go any longer.

On energy, the same thing is true. If you can get a fixed price contract for your electricity and gas supply at the moment, and you can afford it, it might be worth taking. This is an area where prices are highly unlikely to come down. I really can't see that. I can't see the government spending a great deal subsidising electricity and gas for most people in the UK economy; it's different if you are on a low income, by the way, but for most people, I can't see that happening. In that case, if you can get a fixed price contract and it's at a good price, then think about taking it. This could have a big impact on your household finances.

And there's one thing you might want to think about, which most people would not put in this list, but which I think you should definitely consider.

Ask yourself now, who should you vote for, and why does it matter at this moment? We have elections coming up in the UK as a whole soon. They are for different authorities. They are for different types of parliament or council, but the point is, most people are going to vote in the next couple of weeks. I would strongly urge you to do so. Please go out and vote if you have the opportunity to do so. But the fact is, the economic crisis we are facing is also a political one.

The Labour Party and the Conservative Party have both contributed to the development of this situation. Reform UK will only make it worse because they think there is no role for government in society. They will, as a result, stand back and let a crash happen if that's what it's going to do. They do not believe in intervention. You need to think about which party you are going to vote for and vote for the one that you think is going to most likely intervene in your best interest when markets fail.

In my opinion, that will be those parties that I am regularly talking about right now: the Greens, the Scottish National Party in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales. They are the parties most likely to intervene in the way that I think will be necessary. The rest are too neoliberal to do so. They're too frightened of markets, as they see it, to do so. So at this moment, you should only trust those political parties that believe in the active role of the state, and I've already named the ones that do. Your vote now provides you with one of the most powerful political-economic weapons you can use, and you should use it carefully. That is my point.

And overall, my summary of the situation is this. We are in a period of serious and compounding economic risk. The government is not being honest with you about the scale of what we face. It is going to be much worse than they say. Caution in your job, your finances, and your spending is the right response at this moment. There are also practical opportunities that you can act on now rather than later, and I've outlined some of those. Cash is king is the message I'm giving in that case, and politics matters. Who governs will determine how bad this situation is going to get for us all. Be cautious, be informed, and do not assume that someone else will fix this for you.

Now is the time for you to act, and there's one final thing to mention, which I've forgotten earlier on, but I will do so. If you happen to be very well off and you are in the situation where you have more than £120,000 in a bank account, make sure that you have shifted the excess over that sum into another bank to take advantage of the government's guarantees on bank accounts. That is key. That's the point again. No one else will fix this; you have to think for yourself.

That's what I think. Do you agree? If so, there's a poll down below. You can disagree there as well. You can disagree in the comments, but please do like this video, if that's what you do. Please do share it, and if you want us to continue thinking in this way and broadcasting in this way, please do help us by making a donation.

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