As the FT has noted:
Regime change, a campaign to stop Tehran's ballistic missile programme, help for protesters and retribution for the deaths of American soldiers. Donald Trump has cited several reasons for launching the US into another Middle Eastern war.
On Monday evening his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, had another: the US knew that Israel was poised to attack Iran, which would retaliate against the US.
As they added:
It was the latest explanation of many in the course of just three days of a new war with Iran that is rapidly descending into a regional conflict.
I think this confusion needs explanation.
We know the war is not about:
- Self-defence. There was no imminent threat from Iran.
- Iran's nuclear weapons programme. Trump said it was destroyed last year, if there was one.
We know it might be about:
- Cover for the Epstein files.
- An excuse to cancel the mid-term elections.
- Netanyahu's continuing war lust to prevent elections that might see him lose and go on trial.
- Saudi Arabia's desire for higher oil and gas prices.
I dismiss none of those. There is no reason to do so. But none appears to be enough to explain what is happening. Even the supposed kompromat on Trump is insufficient.
So, does the aggression have an explanation? Could it all be down to money? In fact, could it just be down to the only part of the international rules-based order in which Donald Trump has any interest at all? Is this all about defending the dollar?
Trump has already taken out Venezuela, which has attempted to trade oil in a currency other than the dollar.
Iran was doing the same thing, not least with China.
The dollar's hegemony as the world's reserve currency has been both the strength and the weakness of the USA since 1945, massively over-inflating the dollar's value relative to real US trade, which is why it runs perpetual trade deficits and has lost so many blue-collar and even white-collar jobs. At the same time, that overstated value has delivered power and the opportunity to intervene, which has gone to the heads of presidents stronger than Donald Trump.
That hegemony has, in no small part, been reinforced by the dollar's use as the universal trading medium for oil, the literal fuel of the modern global economy. If that hegemony were broken, US power would be seriously undermined. Israel would not get the support that it wants from the USA, on which it depends. Saudi Arabia would not be able to exercise control over the oil price in the way that it has. Might an ugly alliance have been created as a result? And might the very ugliness of this be a reason why European states are not falling over themselves to support what is happening?
I cannot say that this is true. What I can say is that the Trump administration has offered no coherent explanation for action at this point in time, but that, having taken out Venezuela to re-establish order in oil trading, as the US sees it, an explanation of this sort does make sense. And remember, the only thing that ever seems to matter to Donald Trump is the accumulation and control of dollars.
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Hmmm, you may well be right.
But I’m not sure there is any more to it than his ego.
The US-Israeli special military operation does not look like a pentagon designed mission. All the ready made media detail is completely missing. We are getting multiple lazy one line statements that contradict each other. Israel had a plan and the someone has convinced Trump to participate. Trump won’t say who that was. Rubio has suggested it was the prime of Israel. No evidence of a plan, because the US doesn’t have one and never made one. They are flying blind and getting shot down by their allies. They say they plan not to nation build, it is not a new Iraq. I believe them. It is worse.
All the evidence is the Pentagon oppose this mission and many generals are teetering on resignation.
This is what is puzzling me. Maybe someone knows the answer.
If this ‘special operation’ is ‘illegal’ in that it hasn’t been agreed by Congress as required by the Constitution, and, if the military take an oath to uphold the Constitution, why are they taking their orders from the President?
Why haven’t the commanders said ‘this is unconstitutional and we’re not doing it’?
Am I just incredibly naive?
There are a lot of reports that, behind the scenes, the generals in the Pentagon are extremely angry about what is happening, and many are threatening to resign.
I have also seen suggestions that some senior US military saw the way the wind was blowing some time ago, and voted with their feet.
they would have a plan of attack but purely military.
The political plan and strategy seems to be lacking.
They have forgotten Clausewitz -war is a continuation of policy by other means-not for the first time.
I think there is good reason to believe your correct. It’s about the USA dollar. Trump has gone on about the usa supporting Europe and the need for the Eorpeans to make a more substantial contribution to their defence. Was the US contribution that big or was it the fact that Trump needs more control of his dollars.
I admit little knowldeg of the US contribution, but looking at the US leased basess in the UK they are nowhere as active as they were in the Cold War period.
No doubt certain US citizen will be raising the fist as a show of their might. I would suggest that is because they are not yet within range of Iranian missiles. Althought Alaska is close to Russian land and could be a position to strike the US. Then they would expect Canada to assist.
What a mess the leaders of the US, Russia and Israel have unleashed on the world and in the end they will not be accountable.
More left wing trolling. The claim that the US-Israel military campaign against Iran is primarily about defending dollar hegemony and the petrodollar system is a speculative conspiracy theory that ignores the explicit, evidence-based reasons provided by the Trump administration. It is a typical fallacy of the left.
Trump and officials have clearly stated the operation targets Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, navy, nuclear ambitions, and support for militant proxies—objectives rooted in long-standing security threats. Iran posed an “imminent” danger through its advancing nuclear program, repeated attacks on US forces via proxies, and threats to regional allies like Israel and Gulf states. Strikes followed failed nuclear negotiations , not sudden currency concerns.
The petrodollar motive is massively overstated. While Iran has explored yuan-based oil trades with China, US actions against Venezuela (2026) and Iran predate major de-dollarization shifts. Dollar dominance faces gradual pressures from BRICS and diversification, but no credible evidence shows this war as enforcement—oil prices spiked due to conflict risks, not deliberate petrodollar defense. European reluctance stems from war fatigue and legal concerns, not hidden currency plots.
Conspiratorial alternatives (Epstein files, election cancellation, Netanyahu’s trials) lack substantiation amid documented threats. The administration’s coherent explanation—preventing a nuclear-armed, aggressive Iran—fits decades of bipartisan policy far better than shadowy dollar-protection schemes. This is about security, not money.
And absolutely no one who knows anything about security – from generals onwards- agrees with you. You are talking total nonsense. There is no security threat, except from Israel, which is now the centre of global instability.
“The administration’s coherent explanation…”
I was doing OK till I read this bit.
Now I’ve got to hurry off to wipe my beverage off my laptop screen… 😀
You did very well to reach that far, Tilly. I went on the “explicit, evidence-based reasons provided by the Trump administration” bit.
I wonder if David was one of those people who in March 2003 believed that Saddam had all those weapons of mass destruction, and that anyone who questioned it was a lefty.
It’s as if the aggression againt Iran had never existed.
The talks failed because USrael launched missiles at Iran in the middle of them. The main destabilising force in the region is Israel by a long way, so those arguments don’t hold much water.
The quality of trolling round here is definitely declining fast.
I guess this also explains why Trump comes over all peculiar at the mere mention of climate change and wind turbines.
Trump does not like wind turbines because he believes they interfere with his golf resorts in Scotland.
This shows how shallow Trump really is.
Wait till he hears that those windturbines power his golf resorts and golf cars..
The news this morning was of extensive chaos across the middle east due to Iranian retaliation against US military bases in countries across the region.
Having just re-read Naomi Klein’s The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, I was reminded of her descriptions of the neo-liberal project (Hayek and Friedman) to promote free market ideology across the globe; and the means by which they and their Chicago Boys implemented that, both via soft political manoevring, but also by the exploitation of natural disruption whatever that might be.. floods in New Orleans, the fall of the USSR, all creating a chance for new capital friendly policies to be forced, at speed, onto a chaotic situation.
Further, when those natural disasters do not occur, the US intervention in regime change provides the opportunity for the right wing money men to take over: Brazil 1964, Bolivia 1971, 1973 Chile, Argentina 1976, Iraq 2003 ….. Venezuela 2026.
I am not suggesting that what is happening today is a conspiracy to continue this “gunboat diplomacy” in the air, specifically for the purposes of disaster capitalism; what I am saying is that when the chaos that ensues requires remedial intervention, there will be $$$ to be made by those who know how to profit from disaster capitalism. We have already seen the increase in £££, Euros and $$$ flowing into the arms industry.
Cui bono?
Perhaps Gail Tverberg is nearer the truth? https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/03/02/a-new-explanation-for-tariffs-and-bombings/
Peak oil?
We are probably at it, I agree. It has been foreseeable for some time.
But that is also linked to the dollar as a means of control.
Is this war about the dollar? No.
I don’t think you can ascribe that level of thought to Donald Trump – more likely his mate Netanyahu called up and said “We are going to bomb Iran into regime change – are you in?”.
Now, the repercussions from this are immense and one of them might (only might) be to shore up the role of the dollar…. nothing like a show of power to bring the little countries into line. But that was never in Trump’s thinking.
We will have to disagree on this one, Clive.
The links with Venezuela are there.
And Trump does not do the thinking.
I think people need to think about what they gave as the explanation.
Say you have a gang that’s just seriously injured someone, that’s claiming it was justified, and you ask the biggest member why they did it. They respond to say they knew one of their friends was going to hit the guy, and that the guy would then retaliate against the gang, so they had to make sure the victim was properly done in so they couldn’t retaliate.
That’s basically the explanation that Rubio and others have just given. It’s no justification at all.
If Trump was the master negotiator he claimed to be, he could have persuaded Netenyahu against striking Iran on the basis of that risk to US assets. Instead, it again raises the question of why the Trump regime is so ready to back any war crime that Netenyahu may mandate.
Agreed
I’m not convinced by the argument around this war as an excuse to cancel the mid-term elections in the US, simply because they are not until November, and if the War is still continuing then, I think mid-terms will be the least of Trump’s concerns.
As Tim Kent suggests, I think it is more down to Trump thinking he can do anything he wants, encouraged by his seeming success in Venezuela. A distraction from Epstein is probably a part of this too – he is clearly getting fed up being constantly questioned about that. The Israeli Government probably also forced him to go along with their long term goal for control of the middle east.
Lots of dangerous precedents being set though. Yes International Law has no teeth, except lent to it by enough powerful countries to enforce it, and as America is the most powerful in a violent sense, they can currently afford to ignore International Law. However, there has been a long standing convention about actions against the political leaders of countries – the idea that they can fly to other countries and be immune for example, as a way to allow dialogue and diplomacy. By kidnapping Maduro and targeting the Iranian leadership, Trump has opened the door. If I was him, I would now be nervous about visiting Saudi Arabia or UAE, or anywhere near a now implacable enemy. Putin and Xi and other Western nominated “baddies” will have to be increasingly paranoid, which will lead to bad decisions.
The crime of aggression was established as the ultimate international crime at Nuremberg for a good reason. The World needs to collaborate to counter Global Warming and other global environmental damages. We need global calm to encourage those with nukes to disarm. There is always the threat of an asteroid or comet heading our way, or a sufficiently big natural disaster (super volcano?), which would also require everyone working together. And in general, if we the people wish for a better World then we need the more fortunate nations to help the less fortunate. All of this becomes much harder when every leader is suspicious and nervous.
Noted
As with any historical action undertaken by a state, the reasons for action almost always vary amongst the participants. If we narrow it down to just Trump, everything I’ve heard and read suggests to me that it is largely hubris.
Rubio confirmed that Israel was going ahead with or without the US for their own warped reasons, so Trump simply jumped on board. I think he viewed the Maduro kidnap as such a low risk success that he was convinced by Israel that something similar could be achieved by assassinating Iran’s leadership. I suspect there’s not much more to it than that, he didn’t want to miss out on the glory of killing Khomenei and the fall of the regime that Israel convinced him was at hand.
He ignored his own advisers and heard what he wanted to hear. I do not ascribe any more thought on his part to it than that. Maybe Rubio and others in his administration had more complex objectives, but for Trump I’m convinced it was hubris from a president that has become enamoured with using his military. He thought it was a glorious, easy win that would probably net him a real estate and oil deal in Iran. He is, at base, the most stupid and corrupt person you could ever imagine.
Thanks
I agree that the dollar is a major consideration but I think David Burton also has a point. People are often motivated by ego more than calculation.
The triumphalism and self aggrandisement of Trump, Hegsith and co., can be seen from space. David’s gang metaphor is spot on. Bullies love to show off their power by beating up others “hit them like they’ve never been hit before” is a typical statement. It can be physical or verbal assault. e.g.’Disappointed with Starmer”. Unlike the ruthless who stop when there is no further need, bullies have to repeat the bullying. Their egos need constant reinforcement. I think it is a form of addiction which is reinforced by a perception that no one is able to resist. And they feel most don’t want to because they admire them. Looking at the Leader of the Opposition’s statement yesterday, There are some who do, or at least, there actions.
“In October 2000, Saddam Hussein moved to switch Iraq’s oil trade from the dollar to the euro. But the U.S. invasion of 2003 put the country’s oil industry safely back into dollar denomination.” From China News 2022
I had just come on to say the same thing. It was something I was aware of at the time, but didn’t get discussed much as far as I know.
As to motivation for the attacks on Iran, by USA…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/03/us-israel-iran-war-christian-rhetoric
This is what some commanders in the US military are telling their soldiers – its because Trump, has been anointed by God to bring about Armageddon and the return of the Messiah. There’s nothing new about the ideas, but they’ve not had such sway in the White House before. They’ve been around for over 2000 years, and may well have been what motivated Judas Iscariot, the Iscarii (dagger men) being violent revolutionaries who wanted the Messiah to head a revolt against the Romans. It didn’t end well. It has resurfaced regularly in Christian history, including in the English civil war and in the Protestant Reformation in Germany.
I am building an archive on Christian-Zionism, and the associated pre-millennial eschatology. If its something you have to grapple with, want to talk about, and have a good supply of paracetamol, ask to be put in touch with me.
The thing that really makes me really angry, and also want to weep, is the way it isn’t the military that Trump and Netanyahu are killing. It’s women and children living peacefully at home and in school. They wiped out a school full of primary age children and their teachers. Are they too frit to attack actual soldiers? Rather obviously they are – what a load of bullying cowards.
And will Trump allow the mid-term elections go ahead? I think not, as despite being told it’s against the law for him to try stop them, the greedy orange head will go ahead anyway – he believes he’s above the Law because he’s a greedy basteward who wants to make loadsa money which he does by stealing it from the American people. I hope he dies of a horrible, disgusting and painful disease (God forgive me, please) for his attacks on women and children who are not involved in the war. Aaarrrggghhh.