Who will succeed Starmer? He will go. I cannot see any alternative. Labour MPs will now realise that their futures depend entirely on him going. I gather these are the odds:
| Contender | Indicative odds | Market view |
|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner – former deputy leader; senior figure | Around favourite in many markets | Higher probability of succeeding Starmer |
| Wes Streeting – Shadow Health Secretary | 5/2–7/2 in some markets | Strong contender |
| Andy Burnham – Mayor of Greater Manchester (if he returns to Parliament) | 7/1 or similar | Longer shot but recognised name |
| Rachel Reeves – senior economic figure | Around 7/1 in some books | Competitive contender |
| Yvette Cooper / Lisa Nandy / others | Double-figure odds | Less likely on market terms |
Let's be clear:
1) Rayner cannot run. She is still under tax investigation.
2) Streeting cannot run. He is tainted by his links to Mandelson, his failure as health secretary, his whiny character, his lack of support in Labour, and his lack of a safe seat.
3) Burnham is not an MP. Nor is he likely to become one.
4) The idea that Reeves - the most unpopular current cabinet minister with the public - could lead Labour is absurd.
5) The also-rans won't even get into the stalls.
Where does that leave Labour? Rudderless, helpless and utterly unable to govern.
What should they do? I suggest this agenda:
1) Form a national government, or at the very least, a loose coalition of the willing to keep the far right out. It is not clear that it needs a Labour leader, but if it did, Ed Miliband is the person to do it.
2) Do electoral and parliamentary reform to prevent Reform from taking power.
3) Put in place a budget to deliver politics for people, a politics of care and funding for the future. all of which is possible. A list of required measures could follow in a later blog.
4) Agree to the demands of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and pass a Referendum Act to grant them the right to leave the Union.
5) Clip the wings of the Royal prerogative, inclduing the role of Royalty.
6) Only then consider an election.
By doing that, credibility might be restored by signalling a real change of heart. Otherwise, Labour and the country are in deep trouble, and Starmer will deliver what I have always thought he wants, which is a far-right government.
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According to Oddschecker, the next Labour leader could be:
Angela Rayner 9/4 (favourite)
Wes Streeting 5/1
Ed Miliband 15/2
Shabana Mahmood 54/5
Andy Burnham 10/1
:
Clive Lewis 100/1
:
Jeremy Corbyn 200/1
Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader
Thanks
[…] This is why I have suggested an alternative plan Labour needs to adopt here. […]
On the ball, as ever.
Points 2, 3 and 4 are vital for any credible future for Labour and even to “save democracy” thus challenging those Green upstarts.
Point 1. National Govt – too soon?
Point 2. PR e.g. Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV) and public financing of elections. Historic reform that Labour would take eternal credit for.
Point 3. Redemption for Labour.
Point 4. Does however require an honest (and long) national debate on how to achieve true sovereignty, including for England. I can’t see that happening with our media – I’ll stop there.
Thanks
The Labour Party has been lost to the neoliberals, will those Labour MPs from the Corbyn era who survive accept this, cut their ties with the party and look for a new home? I wonder.
Who would want them.
The Greens might take Clive Lewis. Anyone else? I doubt it.
Labour MP Yuan Yang may be sympathetic to Modern Monetary Theory. She co-founded Rethinking Economics which promotes alternative economic theories.
I have never seen any sign that she is.
Agree 100% that this is the crisis moment for electoral reform.
Labour should lean into the fact that a2 party politics seems to be over, and it should in fact be rejoicing that it is, if only they could see past their history.
Sadly, I don’t see much sign of anyone in Labour taking the threat from Reform, and whatever other right wing populists will follow Reform, seriously enough to acknowledge this.
Perhaps Gordon Brown could act as mentor and advisor to whoever takes over the role. There may be a few other Labour grandees untainted by the Mandelson connection who could help. That is unlikely to salvage the Labour cause, but it could be seen as putting the country first. Faith in politicians to even address problems is now very low and seems beyond any hope of being restored.
Brown is totally tainted by Mandelson. He brought him back into government.
Brown, if I remember correctly, was instrumental in particular in Scottish Labour but also in the wider Labour Party in opposition to proportional representation in the 1990s.
I remember feeling that we were close….
I seem to have a memory that the Scottish labour party put the kybosh on it in the belief that they would forever retain their one party fiefdom in Scotland via FPTP.
Something that many in Scotland have never forgiven Brown and the Scottish Labour party for.
If he has belatedly come round in support then great…. I suppose….. though I’m not sure how Gordon Brown is somehow managing to position himself as having clean hands in relation to the New Labour Neo-liberalising project….
‘The Third Way’ anyone…..?
Perhaps better described as the credo of ‘Let Them Eat Debt!’.
Absolutely and totally agree, almost exactly my ideal response to the situation. The McSweeney resignation letter is stunning – he is actually proud of leading Labour nowhere (as is clear in your analysis) and is actually complicit in the rise of Deform. You could not make it up. It just proves that the Labour party/government are not connecting with reality and are currently “lost” and have little chance of discovering a pathway back. The shame of course is that although the plan is workable and offers immediate hope for the whole for all the UK, Labour will limp on leading the country backwards.
“3) Burnham is not an MP. Nor is he likely to become one.”
This is the part of the UK political system that I do not like.
In the USA, anyone with the filing fee and the required number of correct signatures can file to run for any office and get on the ballot. If Andy Burnham wants to run for Parliament then Andy Burnham should be able to run for Parliament on any other office he may choose to seek. I do not like the idea of some party whack-hack who is part of an ingrained party apparatus (an old boy network???) deciding who may and or may not run for office.
If the hot dog seller on the street wants to run for the office of council dog catcher, he should be allowed to do so unencumbered by a party as it is his right.
If the hot dog seller on the street wants to run for a seat in Parliament, he should be allowed to do so unencumbered by a party as it is his right.
I am suggesting that even if Labour found him a seat right now he would not win it. And if he ran as an independent he could not lead Labour. That was my meaning.
From Google:
Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary and MP for Ilford North, has a majority of 528 votes as of the 2024 General Election. This result made his seat one of the most marginal in the UK, representing a vote share of 33.4%. He narrowly defeated independent candidate Leanne Mohamad, who secured 32.2% of the vote.
2024 Election Results (Ilford North)
Wes Streeting (Labour): 15,647 votes (33.4%)
Leanne Mohamad (Independent): 15,119 votes (32.2%)
Majority: 528 votes (1.1%)
Agreed
Your discussion explains clearly why Starmer won’t be challenged except by a fool. So not challenged effectively. He knows, and it’s been engineered to be like that. And there’s no need to resign either. None of the others now feigning self righteousness would have denied themselves the services of Mandleson there had they been offered to them. There’s no future for politics based on pompous rectitude.
Tim, whatever happens he will be out by middle May at the latest, and even he must know it. The party cannot survive him staying – as results will prove. The only reason it may not happen in March is that might make the May results even worse.
Trying to look at it from a Labour party point of view, If Starmer is going then there’s an argument for keeping him until after the local elections so the next leader can be personally untainted by them doing badly in those (and the by-election) and it would allow Starmer to claim electoral failure/unpopularity, rather than Mandelson, as the cause of his going. (marginally more dignified)
Even if technical difficulties with Rayners candidacy can be overcome (tax investigation), her record of personal financlal mistakes would be a constant millstone round her neck, MP’s and party activists would likely be dreading having to try and defend her on the doorstep before they could even start selling the party.
If nothing else, then Streetings association with Mandelson makes him impossible, out of the frying pan and into the fire.
Reeves would be seen as Starmer mark 2 and equally unpopular
Many will now be cursing Starmer blocking Burnham from being the by-election candidate, even if they’re not Burnham fans.
Ed Milliband has been getting mentions but it’s more desperation at thought of the above possibilities, similarly for any others making the betting odds but throwing the dice with a complete outsider could be seen as the best bet.
There can’t be any change of direction before a new leader and probably won’t be after
The Rayner tax issue can be easily resolved. Not sure why it would prevent her standing. She hasn’t broken the law.
Clive Lewis could be an outsider. If he wanted it.
It seems likely she did not completely with the law.
And I like, and know Clive, but I do not see him as a leader.
What is needed is someone uncontroversial, intelligent, genuine Labour and with some people skills. I watch a lot of Select Committees, as that is where one can see some sensible discussions and people you would wish had been given front-bench positions. In my view there is one person who is head and shoulders above the rest – and that is Meg Hillier – who did stick her head above the pulpit when Starmer was still trying to bury the Epstein documents. There must be others.
Totally neoliberal though