This opinion poll, from ITV in Wales, published yesterday, is very encouraging with regard to the Senedd election coming up in May 2026:
Comparisons are to ITV's last poll, in September 2025.
The resulting seat projection makes it clear that a PC / Green government is most likely.
As ITV reports:
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre, said: "This poll shows a stark contrast to previous polling, with a substantial 14-point gap between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK in Senedd voting intention—a significant shift from when the two parties appeared neck and neck.
"While any single poll should come with a health warning and this may be something of an outlier, it continues broader trends we're seeing in Welsh polling, where Plaid Cymru have enjoyed a modest boost, and trends in England, where Reform support appears to be plateauing while the Greens have surged.
"Two patterns are particularly noteworthy. First, the gains for both the Greens and Plaid Cymru appear to be drawing from voters who were previously undecided, rather than coming from other parties.
"Second, Plaid Cymru seem to be consolidating their position as the party best placed to challenge Reform UK —57% of respondents in our sample identified them as such."
ITV also noted Westminster voting intentions in Wales from YouGov, as follows:
Westminster voting intention for people in Wales (YouGov MRP Model):
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Plaid 29 (+6)
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Reform 25 (-4)
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Lab 13 (-5)
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Con 12 (+1)
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Green 12 (+5)
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Lib Dem 6 (-3)
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Other 2 (-2)
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The trends appear to be consistent.
First, Plaid is storming ahead. It has conviction. It offers hope.
Second, the traditional English-based parties are now as dead in Wales as they are in Scotland: the breakdown in the political thinking of the countries of the supposed UK is becoming very obvious; the ties are over.
Third, Reform has peaked, which is a trend I think we will start to see in England soon.
Fourth, the Greens are a growing force.
All of this, to me, speaks well for a politician of care.
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If Scotland goes the same way, I wonder how longer Starmer and his crew will survive? Or, perhaps they will shrug it all off & ignore what the periperhy is thinking/doing. How will what is increasingly seen as an English gov’ work with a Scottish and Welsh gov? That said, I could see Deform/Fart-rage doing OK on the Welsh borders, “Little Ingerland” aka Pembrooke and the North Wales periphery, cos let’s face it there are gazillions of “furriners” in these places & there is no shortage of two-legged English sheep.
There is a short video coming on this at lunchtime – just recorded.
Only a little bit racist there Mike. People born in England living in Wales are “furriners” – thanks for that. Can you do the same for another identity group you can label that was not born in Wales.
Noted.
Our hope is like dandelion seeds, always ready to sprout at the slightest opportunity. This looks like soil to nourish plenty of sunny flowers. (If you don’t like my image, yes they are weeds, but look how the pollinators love them in spring, and at the intense colour of those glorious yellow little suns. Enjoy your garden every dry day and reduce the seed heads to control… but it is so tempting to blow the seeds off as we did as children)
It is indeed very encouraging, and hopefully a polling trajectory that is sustained into the election.
If PC can govern with the Welsh Greens, it will face a dilemma for legislating for an independence referendum – as it would have the majority to do that (Greens support Welsh independence) – but perhaps it would be wise to focus on good governance, and to build a good platform for an independence referendum – and to win it – in the future. (Plaid have ruled an indy ref out in their first term, but it surely would be tempting.)
(Some campaigners for Welsh independence cheekily say that it will be Wales that gains independence before Scotland (as Scotland has more vested interests for the maintenance of union, that Wales doesn’t share).)
But surely Wales will face the same argument as Scotland, that the Senedd does not have competence to hold a referendum. The UK “Constitution” is a matter reserved to Westminster.
It can only hold that line for so long. Let’s not ultimately opretend these things are decided by law – they are not – and international law recognsies that.
It may be three refwerenda in a day might decide this – whether Westminster likes it or not.
Electoral reform seems more urgent than ever.
I have written to Labour telling them how afraid I am that if they don’t use their majority in this parliament to begin concrete reform towards proportional representation we will be ruled by populist demagogues for the foreseeable future. They are clinging to their fantasies of control through big majorities in FPTP that they are too afraid to use even when they get them. Tragic.
One of the most beautiful countries in the world rejecting England. Love it.
I am one of those ‘Little Inglenders’ living in Wales although neither in Pembroke nor the North Wales border but in the most densely populated part of the country; south east Wales.
I’ve lived and worked here for over 25 years, including the Rhondda and the eastern valleys. I’m pretty sure that Plaid will be elected in May (I will vote for them) but I’m also pretty sure that there is little appetite for independence. Most people I speak to that intend to vote Plaid are doing so because they’re sick of Labour and hate the Tories/Reform.
The path to independence will take a while.