Thomas Piketty called it the most important formula in economics: it's R > G , which means that the rate of return on capital (R) is greater than the rate of growth in the economy (G).
That simple equation explains why the wealthy always get richer, why inequality keeps growing, and why governments pretend it's inevitable when it isn't.
In this video, I unpack how political choices and not economic laws have made wealth compound and wages stagnate, and what we can do to reverse it.
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
Why do the wealthy always get richer?
That's the evidence that we can see all around us at present, and the fact is, that is true. Whatever you are told about the fact that hard work supposedly creates prosperity, the evidence is otherwise.
Those who now own wealth are seeing their wealth grow faster than wages are rising. That's the way the world is now, and this is the result of deliberate economic design, and it's not an inevitable truth.
There's a simple formula that explains this. It was created by a man called Thomas Piketty in an extraordinarily fat book called Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Published in French in 2013 and in English in 2014. The whole basis of this tome is to be found in a simple formula, which is R is greater than G (R > G), and we need to explain what that means to understand why it is that the wealthy really do always get richer.
In Piketty's work, R is the rate of return on capital. In other words, it's profits, it's rents, it's dividends, and the gains made from speculation in financial markets. They represent the rate of return on capital.
G is the growth of national income, and most of that goes to labour. So it follows that if R, the rate of return on capital, is greater than G, the growth in the national income, much of which comes down to labour, then wealth is growing faster than is the rate of return to labour, otherwise called wages. And so inequality is not a side effect of this system. It is a built-in outcome within it. The rich don't need to work to get richer. They just need to own wealth.
Wealth compounds over time. But what we know is that wages do not. That simple fact creates increasing inequality, and we know that inherited advantage, whether that is wealth or having parents who are able to provide you with opportunities that others are denied, creates situations where opportunity leading to wealth grows more than income does for everyone else, and it does so right across generations.
Access to assets becomes the dividing line in society. And more and more of what we produce flows to those who do actually own wealth now, and power follows the money, including, of course, political power.
But for one rare moment, this was not true. That rare moment, as Piketty showed in all the data that he produced to underpin this book, was from 1945 to 1975.
In the aftermath of the Second World War, we had something which was entirely different from everything that had been seen before or since. We had full employment. We had rising real wages. We had high levels of public ownership. We had strong trade unions to keep the returns to labour high. And we had high taxes on wealth, which cut down rentier power so that those with wealth could not exercise extraordinary influence over the way in which society was operated.
During that period, something that has not been seen before or since happened: the rate of growth in the economy grew faster than the rate of return to capital. In other words, people got a greater share of the return from growth than did the owners of wealth. Society shared the gains of that period of quite extraordinary political change. But what we now know is that that was a historical anomaly.
Margaret Thatcher in the UK and Ronald Reagan in the USA, basing their ideas on the work of Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek, ensured that the march towards inequality resumed, and it did. From the 1980s onwards, governments cut taxes for the wealthy. They liberalised the world's market system so that money could flow into tax havens. And money flowed out of productive investment and into stock markets, and the financiers gained. Finance was deregulated to ensure that asset prices were inflated. And central banks prioritised the interests of asset owners over workers, and we saw the consequence in terms of high mortgage rates and high rents.
The consequence was that the gains in the extraordinary period from 1945 to 1975 were reversed. Once again, R, the rate of return to capital, rose above G, the rate of return to the economy as a whole, and of course, as a consequence, because G reflects, by and large, the return to labour, inequality returned.
Real economic growth in advanced economies is now barely 1% to 2%; sometimes it's less than that. In the UK, we've got used to seeing very little real growth. But at the same time, we're seeing the rate of return to capital grow by 4% or more in many years. What is clear is that in that case, the wealthy must be getting wealthier, and that is the case. Even government bonds now pay rates of interest that guarantee real returns to their owners above the rate of growth.
It's as if everything is structured to make sure that the wealthy get wealthier and everybody else pays the price. The top are taking more every year while public services are collapsing. We have stagnation for the many and acceleration for the few, and all of that is explained by this simple formula: R is greater than G.
But there's not an inevitability to this. It's happened because governments have chosen to privilege wealth over wages. The tax system rewards capital and punishes labour, and we can see that through things like the national insurance system in the UK, which punishes labour hard, but leaves wealth entirely alone. And the obsession with balanced budgets makes sure that private fortunes soar whilst public investment declines. Market power is tolerated even when it starves society of essentials, which is now why so many people are living in intolerable housing conditions and in poverty.
There's nothing inevitable about R - the rate of return to capital being greater than growth, the rate of return to everything else; it is policy that's been engineered, but it is happening. And that means we have to rewrite the rules of the economy because this cannot be maintained. It's like a cancer growing within our society. This wealth is not being productive; it's destructive. It's actually squeezing out everything of value in our economy.
When the private sector talks about 'squeezing out', they pretend that the state is denying the private sector the opportunity to grow. But in fact, the exact opposite is true. The private sector is growing inordinately.
And if we look at the parallels inside human existence, there's only two occasions when we see unlimited unfettered growth of the sort that wealth is now seeing. And one is when cancer cells invade our bodies, and the other is obesity, and we know that both of these are deeply harmful. And that's the case of wealth as well, when it grows in the way that it now is in our society.
The way in which wealth is accumulating, in shares, in speculative land, is all deeply toxic. And a bubble is going to be inevitable, as I have said many times before.
So what do we need? We need, of course, to direct investment into care, into climate and communities, to raise G, the real rate of growth in the economy.
We need to strengthen workers' bargaining power, so wages rise to match the growth in productivity, which they haven't for decades. We don't have a problem with productivity gains in the UK or anywhere much else in the Western world at present. We have a problem with the growth from productivity going to the owners of capital and not to wages.
And so we need trade union powers reinforced and not weakened yet again.
And we need to stop rent extraction in housing, in monopolies and in finance.
We need, in other words, to bring the economy back under democratic control.
This is the challenge. We need to have G greater than R. We need that for a very long time to come to address the imbalance that has been created by 45 years of it being the other way round, with wealth growing faster than wages.
And markets won't fix this. They're designed to cause it. Only political courage can reverse the flow of power and wealth to a few at cost to the many.
We are heading for a new form of feudalism, which will be backed up by the new forms of fascism that we are now seeing, where wealth can buy everything. And what we need instead is a society that serves us, and not the rentier class.
It's possible, we could do this, but we have to understand one simple formula; G, the rate of return to work, has to be greater than R, the rate of return to capital. Then we will have a more equal, fairer, just society where everybody can prosper, including the wealthy, because let's be clear, they'll still be wealthy, but they just won't be growing disproportionately to the rest of us, and that's fundamental to the future well-being of our societies, our countries, and our democracies.
We have to reclaim wealth for the benefit of everyone.
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Presumably then Governments can measure both and it would be possible to limit R through taxation and legislation?
How about that as one of the Chancellors fiscal rules?
You could hope….
Much to agree with.
In the halcyon days of 45 – 75, private industry still did well, very well since gov’ was a significant buyer of its products.
Example: Intel – the acme of private enterprise? It first made its money selling microprocessors to control………….traffic lights. Hmm, remind me who is +/- the only buyer of traffic lights? Plenty of other example where private industry was the main supplier to gov’ (elec generators and equipment for elec networks – all from private industry). Point: one needs the other & I don’t recall in the 1960s people complaining about e.g. the poor rate of return from the UK’s GEC – quite the reverse, it was the darling of the stock market (& it made stuff – much of which was bought by the gov’). However, in this era, the role of the city of London was small, there were even regional banks lending to, shock horror – industry, they knew their customers cos they met ’em – face to face. Perhaps the finance sector needs to be fragmented and regionalised. Hope that’s not too off topic.
Much to agree with
It would seem that Piketty also knew the solution – Socialism.
https://jacobin.com/2022/06/thomas-piketty-time-for-socialism-capitalism-book.
I know it is a term you dislike, but it answers all the problems you have presented over the last few weeks.
I don’t like it for one reason: its focus on the material aspects of life when life is much bigger than that.
Is it possible that without sorting the material aspects of life, the things that really matter can’t develop?
Life cannot be separated that way
Descartes was very wrong
I wonder how the real economists go about measuring R. It’s not a separate statistic, something you see published by the ONS, and it’s not easily worked out by walking about. There are figures for dividends to market capitalisation of listed shares but they don’t cover the whole economy and in any event a lot of the earnings are abroad. Profits are linked to dividends it’s true so measuring profits is similarly problematic. Rents after deductions for expenses are not published for public perusal. And the gains made from speculation in financial markets are offset by losses on the other side.
May be I should have more faith in the public intellectuals to tell me what it is.
Ask Piketty. He has worked it out. The data exists.
Correct. I think we all agree the R>G seems “obvious” – just by casual observation. (Although, remember G is nominal Growth, not the number that is frequently reported which is Real Growth and Nominal Growth = Real Growth plus inflation).
The key point of Piketty’s book (and why it is so weighty and rarely actually read) is to back that up with serious data across time and geography. The data only “exists”, at least in understandable form, because of his work.
In fairness, reports on growth are in infaltion adjusted terms, usually, but not always. The absolutes aren’t of course, but that is why percentages are often used.
There is no shortage of material out there on measuring R.
The reason Capital in the 21st C is so thick is that it is so exhaustive on data. Piketty waded through tonnes of it – the French did a lot of record keeping.
Piketty’s thesis is nothing if not data driven.
Correct
At the end of the day, we have a system that is too efficient at rewarding itself at a loss to others.
This is the REAL efficient markets hypothesis.
It’s been sold as something attainable by us all, but in reality it is not. It only benefits established players in the markets and that is how it was designed and is maintained.
Do you think that the intrinsic nature of the monetary system is also in some way liable for this inequality via the Cantillon effect?
The first recipients of ‘new’ currency have a disproportionate advantage, as they can spend before inflation increases asset prices for the many. So the wealthy who are connected into the financial system cannot lose.
But is there a mechanism by which currency can be directly placed into the hands of those who produce in advance of those who own? Perhaps a case for the provision of a minimum income for all, but then will that disincentivise productivity?
Sorry, bit long winded!
Sorry, but genuinely just not possible in my time constatinst to deal with the complexity of that today
You ask : “So what do we need? We need, of course [……]”. You then list a set of key changes in the flow of money and of worker and trade union power.
I think there are a couple of few additions which are all related to people serving in the public interest and not just their own:
– We need politicians who believe in that programme of change. No-one on the ‘left’ labour leadership has any conviction on these issues. We also need union leaders who believe in supporting workers (look how Unite treated their own office support staff – a union!) – and look how unions in some areas have lost sight of the bigger picture (e.g. those in the nuclear industry). So many people in our society who are reliant on wages have been let down not just by the Thatcherites (though they have), but also by those who were supposed to be defending their interests (including complacent ‘red wall’ labour MPs over the decades). So let’s ditch the self-serving brigade.
– Let’s assist the above by stopping funding of political parties by private donors (whether foreign or not).
– Let’s target self-serving conflicts of interest, corruption or corrupt practice. This could be planning, redevelopment contracts, revolving doors, cosy relationships between regulators and regulated, etc. Identify and punish white collar malpractice.
I believe these are pre-requisites to embarking on those key structural changes. We need a government and institutions that works for the people – not themselves.
Thanks
Excellent video, one of your team might perhaps edit a short out of it. That formula sums it up, I hope to see it on a placard soon… ‘We want R to be less than G’ or ‘R>G = inequality’
I have asked Tom….
Keep raising the volume Richard, people are listening.
I wonder if the underlying growth during the post war years was also anomalous, after all there was much to rebuild. It would be interesting to separate out the post war years from say 1960 to 1980.
The late 70s was not relevant to growth.