Could pluralist politics finally take hold in the UK in 2029?
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
I'd like your opinion on something. What might happen at the next UK general election?
I know we are four years away, near enough, from that election, but it's worth thinking about what might happen. And this is the first in a series of videos that we are making, asking for your opinion on the possible outcomes of a scenario that we're going to explore.
And the point that I'm going to raise is that we don't know what is happening, but discussing the possibilities lets us prepare for the eventualities that might arise.
The way I'm going to ask for your opinion is to vote in a YouTube poll, which is below this video, and I'm offering you four options of what might happen in 2029, one of which is that Labour will fail badly.
I admit I'm not offering you an option of Labour doing well, because I simply can't see it happening now. I do genuinely believe that Labour is now going to stick to its neoliberal orthodoxy. It is going to let public services deteriorate even further, because Rachel Reeves is going to stick to her demand that the public sector's books balance, as she defines it, and as a consequence, people are going to become increasingly alienated from Labour, because it simply isn't going to do what is necessary to meet their needs, and people will react as a consequence. My belief is that the only option for Labour in 2029, which I'd like your opinion on, is will Labour suffer a heavy defeat? And that's one of the choices that you can make in the poll that I refer to below.
Another of the choices that I offer you is that the Conservatives will also collapse by 2029.
We know that Kemi Badenoch is having an appalling time as Conservative leader now.
We know that her party are not united behind her.
We know that the party as a whole, the Conservative party as a whole, is having a terrible job at getting its message across because frankly, no one wants to hear it anymore. They've had enough of everything to do with the Conservative party.
And it seems that the internal divisions within the party are only growing and getting worse.
So the option that I'm suggesting to you is that the Conservatives are actually going to do much worse in 2029 than they did in 2024, collapsing to well under 100 seats and maybe becoming just a rump party left over at the end of the political life of what was once the most powerful force in democracy, as they put it. So is that the situation they're going to be in, either in long-term opposition or, frankly, simply a decided minority of no great significance?
The third option that I think we have to consider is that Reform might win the 2029 general election. After all, at the moment, they are riding high in the opinion polls. That is, despite the fact that it is very obvious that Nigel Farage is, for example, closely associated with Donald Trump, and Donald Trump is unpopular amongst many people in the UK population.
It is also obvious that Reform is the Nigel Farage party in reality, and it's not at all clear that he's good at forming relationships with anybody else.
And now that we have county councils run by Reform, it's not at all clear what they think they're going to do or what they're going to deliver.
But despite that, what I'm suggesting is that Reform might still win in 2029 simply because of the anger and disillusionment which dominates the political narrative in the UK at present with regard to Labour and the Conservatives, who have, of course, been the main place where people have voted in the past. So the consequence could be that, against all the odds, far-right populism might still break through in the UK in 2029, even though the reality of Farage might have been sussed by then by a majority of people.
And finally, I want to put you a fourth option, which is that something new is going to emerge over the next few years, albeit, and I'm going to make this clear, new in the sense that we have other political parties and there's going to be a mass movement towards them.
A new form of pluralist politics is, in other words, going to emerge. And it's going to be basically a situation where people will, at the next election, decide to vote for the Greens, or the Liberal Democrats, or the SNP, or Plaid Cymru, and maybe others, particularly in Northern Ireland, of course, but the option will be there for people to actually pick somebody else on the list. And if these parties can cooperate and say, we are the lead opponent in this seat. And if these parties can also cooperate to suggest they're going to put forward another narrative, including the possibility, of course, of proportional representation, which would then allow tactical voting to reshape parliament as a whole, we might end up with an entirely new approach to government.
A new form of coalition politics might, in other words, become the norm. That could of course also include either the Tories or Labour. It's possible. But the fact is that these other parties might be the biggest shows in town come 2029, even though none of them may have sufficient votes to form a government. That's the whole point I'm making. Coalitions are going to become commonplace.
So what do you see as plausible? I'm not suggesting that any of these are inevitable, but I'm looking to create a debate. A debate in the comments below, and I appreciate the number of comments we get on this channel, even though I can't respond to them all. But I'm also looking to understand where you are, what you think, and how this might work. Give it a go. Please do vote. Have a look at the instructions below and let's see what happens.
What wll happen in the 1929 general election?
- Labour will lose, heavily (41%, 116 Votes)
- Other parties will win (30%, 84 Votes)
- Farage will win (19%, 54 Votes)
- The Tories will be wiped out (10%, 29 Votes)
Total Voters: 283
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Difficult poll. I think 1,2 and 3 are all going to happen, they are all versions of the same outcome. I realise this may just be wishful thinking.
I voted “Other Parties Will Win” despite it looking as if a combination of the other options are more likely . I voted out of a desperate hope that concerted grassroots activism could bring that change over the next four years. It’s hard to be optimistic though – no matter how bad things get people are either persuaded to vote against their best interests or they abstain from voting as a protest. But all things are possible and a powerful umbrella group could emerge that would draw together citizens and MP’s who understand that the current system isn’t just inadequate – it’s destructive and very dangerous. As Richard says coalitions and tactical voting and a principled independent political narrative that diverges from neoliberalism are needed. Many systems we rely on are teetering on the edge of collapse so I think fear could be a catalyst to drive a movement like this. We can’t carry on thinking that political power is something beyond our control that we have to endure and that whether we take an interest or not, or vote or not, that it will be business as usual and our health and care system, transport, water supply, food availability etc, etc will all totter on forever. Without change they won’t and we need to know that and feel the fear.
Thanks
Here in the South West the Lib Dems have been stronger than Labour in multiple areas for a while. As high as Reform are riding in the polls, that’s mainly Tory support moving while Labour support has been more likely to move to LD, Green, etc. Reform support may be a bit more evenly spread, which doesn’t necessarily help them in a First Past The Post system as that could result in them being in 2nd place to candidates of varying parties.
Thanks
I think another identarian party could emerge. We’ve already got 5 MPs for Gaza, and 16 Communist MPs admittedly hiding in the main parties. They could come together under some banner and stand in all constituencies.
Communist MPs?
No we have not.
In world affairs they believe in internationalism, and in domestic they believe in nationalisation without compensation. They don’t believe in a mixed economy, or the nationalisation methods of Attlee. That’s enough to make them communists.
Very politely, you have not a clue what you are talking about.
2029 surely. Not 1929??
We become the first European Failed State?
My personal view is that politics in this country is a kakistocracy – it’s fed into by a pool of the least principled and competent people – for example, I have chartered the career of the man who is now in charge of Derbyshire County Council – a Reform ‘politician’ who in my mind has no right to be in the position he is in. He has just stuck around long enough.
I will tell you though what I think will happen?
Badenoch will be disposed of and they will get the very dangerous indeed Robert Jenrick in and the Tories will rally. This cannot be ruled out in my view, for what it’s worth. This is based on the Tories past record but more worryingly, another important and real factor: the gullibility of British voting public.
This is my guess too, Pilgrim. It’s hard to imagine that Farage won’t make a fool of himself (again!) so most of his votes will return to the Tory fold. Large numbers of voters will be totally disenchanted by Labour — there will be a strong “anything but Labour” vibe, which will split the Left making a Tory comeback quite likely. (Scotland and perhaps Wales will have their own rather different solutions, of course.)
Could the LDs and Greens become strong enough contenders to unite the Left against the Tory threat? That’s the dream outcome, but honestly it’s not the most likely future.
The other route to defeat the Right is for Labour get rid of Starmer (and more importantly Reeves) and start to deliver on its promises. That would be enough to deliver it a second term, albeit with a much-reduced majority, or even requiring a coalition with LDs and/or Greens. I won’t hold my breath.
Another party, hopefully from the left, may emerge but will require that cult of personality, like farage. Wouldn’t be surprised if Corben makes a comeback.
Hello Richard.
I agree with Cyndy Hodgson’s comment.
I also think that a ‘culture of celebrity’ pervades our society, and Nigel Farage naturally fits into and sees himself this way. Therefore, depending on how much airtime the media give this revolting man, and with some luck on his side, Reform could do very well. I’m not sure what percentage of the electorate shall vote, but it won’t be high, and many shall just be voting on ‘personality’ not policies, which could help Reform too.
Hopefully I’m completely wrong and what happens is a multi-party coalition government, resulting in Scotland getting independence without becoming a small, failing neoliberal state, run by corporate USA.
Where can I get a poster that looks a bit like:
Labour = Tory = Reform
Perhaps shown as a ouroborus-like cycle of mediocrity and fakery.
I would display it at election time. Perhaps even distribute leaflets calling for a boycott of parties that represent bare-faced lies . Not sure of the legal issues there though.
Without honesty there us no democracy.
Easy
Try Chat GPT
That’s good!
It’s really hard to predict with First past the post coupled with the inevitable low turnout. I’d predict it’ll go to reform, if they manage to not completely meltdown by then, marginally winning a majority of seats against different opponents – getting somewhere between 15-5% of the electorate’s vote in each seat.
Lets hope there’s something new to unite around by then!
Prediction Re Wasteminster.
The purpose and task of this Labour government was always to destroy the Labour project forever. That is their KPI and and as you say RM mission right on track, being mendaciously achieved by Rishi Reeves and Sir Kid Starver.
Tories will dump Bad Enoch and prop up Jenrick or breath life into the Johnson corpse – as their next neoliberal sock puppet, so a few more voters will rally around the new face, or bloated old Johnski.
Yes agree more people sickened by corruption and incompetence and so will turn to Greens, etc.
Oligarch Media will push forward Deform and J or J Tory candidate, maybe Farage PLC Party will get a slim majority or a minority party, meaning power is spread amongst the other parties. As already seen in councils, Deform do nothing, are chaotic and incompetent, but blame everyone else, like Trump, whilst tearing-up democratic institutions which took decades to build, which is exactly what Farage wants, the end of democratic government, and thus it doesn’t matter if you are unpopular, like Trump, because you don’t need to worry about what voters think in your future autocracy.
If Farage PLC Party get in, Union will split faster, now seems more likely with G Mc Kemp’s move for solidarity and calling out of SNP’s utter failure in managing the SNP’s core function and raison d’etre. See The National.
I agree the Tories will collapse, simply because enough people have realised their entire 14 years in government was a disaster.
I agree Labour may start to go the same way, although (unlike Brexit) we cannot yet foresee whether a single policy failure will capture public attention.
There is a desperate need for a Lib Dem – Green non-compete pact. In Reading Central, where I have a vote, there is a useless sitting Labour MP. Greens came second and Lib Dems third last year.
Either Lib Dems or Greens need to be forthright about the four major challenges Britain faces:
1. Climate
2. Europe
3. Debt
4. Democratic failure and renewal
Greens are forthright about 1 and 2, Lib Dems are in favour but not sufficiently proactive.
All the day-to-day failures can only be fixed by tackling those four priorities. For example, NHS waiting lists will never fall to low figures without more doctors and nurses, which are prohibited by Treasury rules and (in the case of specialists) lack of free movement.
I cannot agree that a Lib Dem Green agreement should be based on your 4 areas of concern, namely, Climate, Europe, Debt, Democratic failure and renewal. While they are all of concern they are not the areas that will gain voters’ interest.
Cost and standard of living
Public services
Corruption
Migration (unfortunately)
In my view these are the areas where Labout are failing and are the areas which any electable party needs proper policies.
The four points you list are valid and readily understood by the majority. But they are symptoms. Only tackling the causes can address the symptoms.
Thus Brexit is responsible for a good chunk of inflation and declining public services. Immigration (lack of skilled people) also contributes to declining public services.
When I was young (rather a long time ago now) politicians educated the public and provided leadership. Now they only offer followership, they are slaves to opinion polls and focus groups.
Thoughtful people need to contribute ideas, but British “democracy” prevents this. Those who are not thoughtful can only protest. They did so by voting “Leave” and then voting for Johnson. A Labour failure will lead to the unthoughtful voting for Farage. They have no other way of regsitering their discontent.
what are the chances of a Tory-Reform merger?
High
Agree -with ‘metaphorical’ bloodshed.
One lesson from elections across Europe is clear: where greens have been in government, and indeed where the left (as opposed to the centre-left) has been in government, it has been in broad left-green coalitions. The same is true of the recent electoral advance (which should have been into government had Macron followed constitutional precedent) of the Front Populaire in France – in which Marine Tondelier, the Ecologistes’ leader, is a very prominent voice – and which also, incidentally, demonstrated that this European experience has not all been down to proportional as opposed to first-past-the-post voting systems (the French system is not really proportional).
Moreover, such results clearly indicate that both centre-left and centre-right governments do little to stop the rise of the far-right – but broad left-green coalitions can do this. And the other good news is that there is a very natural and fundamental symmetry between green and left – because environmental damage and social inequality and injustice actually have the same basis: capitalism’s over-exploitation of both people and planet.
Before the boundary changes we were in Riverside. Now we’re in Wavertree. Liverpool is very much a Labour city, so I’ll be interested to see how Liverpool in general will vote! We do have very hard working Labour MPs (at least the ones I know in Riverside and Wavertree), who are quick to reply to emails/letters.
I think what I’d like to see most at the next GE is a coalition of Greens, LibDems, and Independents. And Plaid in Wales and SNP in Scotland of course.
That is our hope
A hard choice, depending on how you interpret the Q.
Can’t we have a PR Poll? (too complex, I know)
4 years is a long long time. I hope Fa***e will be a busted flush by then, failed in Kent and failed in his 8 other councils. But will he?
Labour may have rebelled v. McTeam by then (but not against neoliberalism, I fear).
If the GE was tomorrow?
Reform would win or control a terrible minority government of incompetent highly dangerous, very convincing demagogic nasty fascist idiots. That’s how I voted, in yr poll, that’s what I tell my “safe seat” Labour Minister MP.
But in 4 years time? Oh God, I hope not, or we are headed for a VERY hard time under Fascist populism.
I simply don’t know what might happen re. a new politics, tactical voting, the Celtic fringe politics in Wales, Scotland, NI, all so different, campaigns for PR or whether the left will continue with ideological purity splitting TUSC, Corbyn Peace & Justice network, SWP, Gaza Independents, etc etc or something new that hasn’t happened yet.
Will Labour kick out McTeam? Will that result in change? I dont know. All I can do is personally try and spread truth, transparency, hope, and be prepared to challenge lies, silence, complicity, and complacency mostly at an individual level, within and beyond my comfort zone in a way that keeps channels open. But on some issues, especially Israel and immigration, that seems impossible (so toxic) and on others such as macro-economics, such an uphill battle because how do we undo 45 years of highly effective brainwashing that we “have to live within our means etc etc etc”.
I like many others here find that quite a painful and sometimes lonely business, at the personal level, yet the issue is so crucial, the cost of failure so high, retreat is impossible. As they used to say, I think its from the RAF part of my background rather the church side of my life, you have to “just keep bu****ing on”.
Alas, I can’t see a left-Green-LD government getting into power, simply because so much of our media (all varieties) is owned by/subsidised by/in thrall to the neoliberal billionocracy, and they won’t let it happen. So far, Farage has had the lion’s share of media attention, good and bad, and the Greens and LDs have kept a relatively low profile, but if they start to attract more attention you can bet that most of it will be aimed at discrediting them in every possible way, for fear that any left-Green-LD government will actually do what it says on the tin. Pessimist, moi?
The only thing I’d be fairly sure of is Labour’s wipeout. The present reminds me a bit of 1992, when the Tories under a charisma-free Major took the highest popular vote in UK history (still the only electoral vote over 14M) and a few months later dies in polling after the ERM debacle.
They never recovered, not even close, and I’d see that for the Major-manque Starmer, even if they replace him, for who can they put up? Any of the neoliberal hacks – Reeves, Kendall, Streeting – is likely to suffer the same fate. People are fed up of the same old shit. But is a McSweeney Lab party putting up a lefty? We know the answer to that.
So Lab die, the Tories are already one foot in the grave; Trends: Increasing nationalism; SNP/Alba/Greens in Scotland, PC in Wales, SF/SDLP in Northern Ireland.
And England? Same thing: I think Reform – in reality the ENP – can’t be denied their shot. We know they’re horrible frauds, but how can the ‘extreme centrists’ who have also proved so horrible argue against that?
So the process of the breakup of the UK increases pace. I can’t see anything else.
I expect the following
A very low turn out
Much tactical voting to try and keep out the party least wanted
on the right against Labour
on the left against Reform
Torys wiped out losing out to Libdems in remain areas or
Reform in leave areas.
FPTP will serve up a Reform minority gov in a multi party election unless candidates on the left work together, I see no sign of
this yet- sadly
I have long wanted to see a box on the ballot paper labelled “None of the above”. Maybe some degrading of the status of the MP who does not get more votes than none of the above.
I feel that way about your choices. It needs that box and as a result might get more votes.
Dare I say it…the date is wrong.
Chance to say how good you blog is. Brilliant.
Thank you
I chose those options to match the ones I used on YouTube where the polling is more restricted. Sorry.
I think a new party of the “left” will emerge.
“Collective is taking the next steps towards the formation of a political party of the left.” https://we-are-collective.org/
There is also the Democracy is Europe Movement, https://diem25.org/en/
Thank you for this debate. Unfortunately I’m starting to question whether we even have a democracy in this country. A few years ago a bloke down the pub said to me half in jest ‘they wouldn’t let you vote if it made any difference’ at the time I was appalled, not so appalled now. I think this is a deeper problem and we need to understand it at a deeper level.
Richard you do sterling work highlighting the key issues but getting different analysis into mainstream debate is nigh on impossible. For me the key issue is how do we get the British public to recognise they are being gaslighted by the main stream media.
A political party of whatever hue will only succeed if it parrots certain talking points and Farage is very adept at that.
That’s a good point.
It’s why I think the argument for electoral reform is so important.
If I’m honest, I’m a bit disturbed by what I’m seeing of your poll so far. I don’t pretend to be any kind of expert statistical analyst but I do shudder at the thought of the Tories doing what they always do and that is rise from the ashes on the back of cheerleading by the billionaire media class in this country. I say this because their money has magically created silk purses out of Tory sows’ ears so many times in my lifetime.
Call this “glass half full” if you wish but, of the 218 of your followers who voted so far, 89% DO NOT seem convinced that the Tories will be wiped out! 59% think Labour WON’T lose badly – (I’m not one of those BTW). 72% of us think Other Parties WON’T win. Somewhat reassuringly, 80% think Farage WON’T win – perhaps not surprising in view of the general political complexion of your readership.
I’d like somebody to tell me this is exactly the wrong way to use these numbers. I’ve been out in the sun a lot today and am hoping my brain has been affected by the heat. Maybe this is just the kind of bogus extrapolation that you’ll always get from any FIRST PAST THE POST voting system?
I don’t really think it is possible to make an informed guess on this at present. You once posited a pretty convincing theory on your blog, if I remember correctly. The theory goes that for all the reasons stated by you above, Starmer will blindly plough on with the present idiocy and will be replaced next May after a disastrous round of local elections. This I see as a game changer. I’m not saying Labour will be rejuvenated but I find it hard to believe they won’t find somebody who could avert complete disaster in 2029. Isn’t there somebody in your neck of the woods who would be far more sensible as Labour leader?
I like your interpretations.
Could someone in my neck of the woods lead the party? Maybe…..but I just do not see it happening.
As a life long Labour Party supporter/member/voter I am totally lost. The Party doesn’t look like or act like the party that I understand.
I find myself actually saying that I may not bother to vote because I can’t find a voice that I can support. The only politician in the UK that I like is Angela Rayner her voice has been muffled to silence.
We need a party that can see past neoliberalism, that understands how a fiat currency works, that throws out GDP as the only measure.
I think that one party dominance is dangerous and we need to be governed by a coalition of ideas that reduce inequality and focuses on making life better for the many and not the few.
The only thing I’m sure about is that I don’t want ReformUK to be anywhere near government. The end.
Thanks for allowing me a wee rant.
Ian.
Rants are allowed.
Neal Lawson of Compass campaigned successfully for progressive tactical voting in2024, which helped Labour win on a small proportion of the electorate and a modest proportion of those who voted and it also helped Greens and Lib Dem’s get elected. There is a Progressive tactical voting movement emerging that could result in constituents voting for existing progressive MPs of whatever party. Here in Stroud we are fortunate to have as our Labour MP Dr Simon Opher who is progressive eg opposes welfare cuts and all arms sales to Israel. Many of us hope he can stay on in 2029 if we can form a progressive Green/Lib Dem/Labour coalition. What is lacking however is a clear societal alternative to the neoliberal model.
[…] readers here will know, I ran a poll yesterday on what might happen in the 2029 general […]
Back in 2010, I was convinced the UK would have hung parliaments into the foreseeable future. How wrong I was. I now find politics almost totally unpredictable. Anything seems possible, as long as the entrenched neoliberals can live with it. The media are sleepwalking us along the same path despite a growing clamour to change things. I do not fear Reform as I think they are certain to implode long before any General Election. Labour have only a slim chance of redemption and it’s getting slimmer by the day. Maybe, someone will emerge from the shadows to rescue them, but I don’t see them yet.
My best hope is a coalition of Libdems and Greens, supported by SNP and some Labour renegades. I believe the Tories are not yet done with. Their new leader isn’t yet apparent, but probably won’t be from the right of the party who are disgraced and in disarray. Even their Blimpish members must know this after Brexit, Johnson and Truss. Maybe Sunak will grow a pair and return with a more moderate programme.