Trump has failed, but the world needs to carry on presuming that Trump is the biggest threat it has faced in generations, because a man who's failed in the way he has might turn to violence, and violence will not resolve anything.
This is the audio version:
This is the transcript:
Trump has failed.
Let's be clear about it. Everything that he has so far tried to do during the course of this, his second term as President of the USA, has not worked.
He said he'd end the war in Ukraine. He very clearly has not.
He said he'd end the war in Gaza. He very clearly has not.
He said that he would negotiate with Canada, and they would love to be the 51st state of the USA. It's very clear that they do not want to have that status.
He said that the USA must have Greenland, and all that he has so far succeeded in doing with regard to that strategy is to alienate both Greenland and Denmark.
But worse still, the whole of the DOGE - the Department of Government efficiency - the Elon Musk exercise - is very clearly failing.
The scale of savings has already been wound back considerably.
He isn't going to cut out over a trillion of US federal government spending, as was the goal.
He might, if he's lucky, cut out a bit over a hundred billion, and the harm from doing so is almost uncountable.
Musk himself has disappeared from the scene. It looks as though even he thinks that this exercise has failed.
But then we come to the biggest failure of all, and that, of course, is the tariff policy.
Trump had talked about tariffs forever. From the 1980s onwards, he has been obsessed with the supposed benefits that tariffs would supply to the USA. He seems to have genuinely believed that somehow or other, tariffs imposed a tax charge on people outside the USA who exported goods to it, when the reality is that tariffs impose a tax charge on the US consumer. He's tried to do that, and very obviously, he's created a number of quite dramatic outcomes.
One is total confusion because it's very clear that Trump has not known what he's doing.
He's imposed tariffs.
He's withdrawn tariffs.
He's upped the tariff rate.
He's cut the tariff rate.
He's declared that there's a moratorium and then there isn't.
Now, where are we? Who knows? All we have for certain are 10% tariffs on most countries, excluding things like cars, where the rate is 25%, probably on top of the 10%, but again, we're not sure. And we have 145% on China, and we find there are already exemptions appearing.
The confusion is staggering.
Markets are collapsing.
That's not just the financial markets, although we have clearly seen financial markets for shares around the world falling heavily as a consequence of what he's done, and we have seen the value of the dollar collapsing, whilst the interest rate on US Treasury Bonds has increased significantly in a way that just should not have happened in a normal period of time. It has taken the most extraordinary inability to produce that outcome of falling 📍 share prices, falling bond prices , falling dollar valuation, and collapsing trade underlying all of this.
And at the same time, inflation is going to increase because the price of many products to US consumers is going to rise dramatically. The suggestion was that an iPhone would've gone up in price from $1,200 on average to $2,100 on average, and whilst that may now change, there is not going to be a significant change in the increase with regard to the price of cars, for example, where significant quantities of foreign components are included.
And as a consequence, not only is there going to be an increase in inflation, but of course, there is going to be an increase in taxes paid by most people in the USA. Fifty per cent of all people in the USA hardly pay any federal tax at all, but they will all pay the price for tariffs included in the prices they have to pay for the goods and services that they buy.
Trump has delivered nothing that is working.
Literally nothing at all.
No policy that he has so far talked about has created a positive outcome, and we then have to face the reality that this might create an extraordinary new situation to deal with.
What does a caged egotist like Donald Trump do when he finds that he cannot get what he wants?
This is a man who is the equivalent of a spoiled little brat. He's always got whatever he's wanted throughout life. And now what he wanted was to impose tariffs on the world so they would sit down and as he put it, lick his ass to get favours in exchange for releasing those tariffs. And now he's finding that the tariffs are failing and that no ass licking will be going on.
How will he react? The answer is, I have no idea.
A man like this is utterly unpredictable, so irrational is he, whilst clearly being in charge of his mental faculties. I personally believe that he is not suffering senile dementia or anything like it. I think he is actually forming a strategy, which in his own mind works, and which those around him are not challenging and therefore he is sane in the sense that the world as he sees it, is not reacting as he expects, while the rest of us think that he's outta touch with reality.
But he is in control of what he thinks he wants, but what he wants is not what he's getting. What does the spoiled brat do in that situation?
Well, he starts by throwing his toys out of the pram. We can expect that to happen. He's going to get very angry somewhere very soon.
Will he take out his anger on Mexico? He might, because, of course, they are vulnerable to any challenge from the USA, which could include invasion. The argument being that imports of fentanyl are enough to justify such an action.
He could increase his aggression against Canada, where it is clear that he has the opportunity again to invade if he so wishes, although what the pretext would be is very hard to work out.
He might increase tariffs, although as he's already found, China has now called his bluff there. They are not accepting the tariff regime because 📍 they're refusing to export key items like rare earths, which the US can't survive without so that there is no tariff at all to be imposed because quite simply there is no product that's going to be sent to the USA and that has no real cost to China, by the way, because the rare earth, of course, will still be there to export in time to come. It's just a cash flow consequence that China will suffer as a result, and it's big enough to suffer that.
So, where are we now? We have Trump, a failure in charge of the White House.
Trump's looking like a fool in charge of the White House.
Trump's being mocked in charge of the White House.
And Trump, with no idea what to do next, is in charge of the White House.
I worry that he will turn to aggression as his next course of action. We need to watch that carefully. But the one thing we do know, and I make it very clear. Is that the world needs to join together to challenge what he's doing.
The danger of Trump and his tariffs has not passed. If anything, the danger is increasing precisely because his tariff policy is failing.
We do need to have Canada, Japan, South Korea, the European Union, the UK, and other states - looking to some of the Brics countries too - we might want to include India and Brazil, for example, in this new alliance that creates free trade and maybe uses another currency apart from the dollar to undertake that trade in, which need not be the Euro, but could be some basket of currencies agreed between them - what Lord Keynes once called the Bancor.
Whatever it is, the world needs to carry on presuming that Trump is the biggest threat it has faced in generations because he really is, and a man who's failed in the way he has might turn to violence, and violence will not resolve anything.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
There are links to this blog's glossary in the above post that explain technical terms used in it. Follow them for more explanations.
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Agreed, but it’s not only violence against external parties like Mexico and possibly Canada, but internal violence against his opponents, whom he sees as enemies. This is certainly authoritarianism, possibly outright fascism as has been pointed out.
I’m pretty sure he – and his backers/handlers – saw what Putin and his cadre have gained in terms of power and wealth and thought ‘We’ll have some of that!’.
He admires the ‘strong men’, whom I generally regard as weak, thin-skinned and narcissistic, but powerful.
Sad times. Worrying times.
“internal violence against his opponents, whom he sees as enemies”
It would seem that US citizens who don’t fit will soon get a free one-way ticket to El Salvador:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/14/2316409/-Trump-is-chomping-at-the-bit-to-send-US-citizens-to-Salvadoran-prison
There have been test runs, I would expect deployment in the near future – then somebody with a gun & with friends with guns will open up, then Mango will declare martial law initially in one state/area – eventually in all, then the USM(ango) will descend into civil war. Scores will be settled. Wonder what gun sales are like right now? – guess – climbing fast.
As they used to not say: “Better dead than mango”.
Well reasoned argument, I agree he has failed…….BUT.
IMO the greater failure is the american political system. Why is there not a Republican led push back and serious efforts in congress to take away his ability to play his tariff lunacy? Can they really not see the extent of the damage here?
There needs to be an internal set of brakes that stops him from destroying the USA, surely?
The Cabinet can remove him.
We would get Vance instead.
“Will he turn to violence, next?”
Next? Towards some he already has. In the face of resistance from Europe, Canada, China etc. he is taking it out on vulnerable individuals within the US. Well done Harvard for standing up – that endowment is being put to good use – others can’t.
On the international stage I fear conflict with Iran is the most likely arena of distraction.
I was, I admit, assuming international force.
Many people wlll be likewise uncertain = WTF is going on?
Couple of Mango-man tactics. Ukraine; sits on a combo of rare-earths (an uncertain quantity) and a lot of gas with an existing pipeline to take it to Urope. Mango wants a controlling interest (guessing – for his family) thus keeping Urope on-the-hook for US-contolled gas.
An alternative scenario is that Europe supplants the US in Ukraine – drives the war to a conclusion and works with Ukraine to rebuild. This then secures: access to metals & minerals, gas (yes I know – global climate disaster), wheat and ag products. Do this as a real cooperative effort with Ukraine – not as per USM – explotative.
Gradually isolate the USM through alliances with other groups that are tired of being told what to do by Washington.
Close most institutes/orgs that are US-based & which have off-shoots in Europe, UK etc.
US Isolation
Might the U.S.A currently be a (temporary?) dictatorship?
Why might it be/seem to be so governmentally fragile?
Might there be lessons and warnings for our country/countries?
It is a dictatorship now
Just an observation.
In a parliamentary system, leaders can be removed by the Parliament -as happened twice in the last British Parliament. Unfortunately the system didn’t provide for an election.
In the US system with a directly elected Head of State, it is much more difficult. The Constitution provides (25th amendment ) but then power then transfers to the Vice-President. To dismiss the President needs two thirds vote of Congress ( section 4) not just a simple majority like a House of Commons vote of confidence.
We often see demands for a fully written constitution of the UK to replace our hybrid system of law and precedent. I partly agree but real life can throw up circumstances not foreseen.
IMHO the American de-facto dictatorship seems supported by their Constitution despite claims that it supports freedom. But necessity is the mother of invention. We might yet be surprised.
Thanks RM, it’s scary, to think Sir Kid Starver wants to be Donald’s bag boy, and drag us all into this horrible psycho-drama ‘ ‘When Donald Meets Limits’.
Mary Trump’s analysis of Trumpathology – fascinating, would love to know where Mama Trump was whilst Freddy and Donald were being eviscerated by their father
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjG7Eh77ajQ&ab_channel=MaryTrumpMedia
Dominance seems to be his core construct, weakness being on the other end of that construct pole, a position he fears and avoids so splits it off and projects into others.
Violence is always possible when Utopian dreams by fascists (left or right) are held back by reality.
In the last few days, I’ve talked to a number of people about possible future events. Some echo the tone set by this piece. Others, seemingly, just don’t want to know, and don’t see/accept where all this might lead; they aren’t interested in even the most benign preparatory measures.
I hope they’re right and it’s a waste of effort and nervous energy. I worry, though, because, at the moment, I don’t see a path that is trouble free.
Removing Trump only ushers in Vance (and Elon with billionaire chums).
We need to find a way of:
– throwing Vance out with Trump or;
– getting Republicans to wake up or;
– putting up with Trump until the next election
Is there a scenario in which congress takes control over presidential duties?
The speaker is 3rd in line.
That’s nit a better option.
As we say in Ireland:
“We’re banjaxed folks”
Two things:
1- DOGE is failing in providing efficiency, sure, but has done a great job getting access to important USA data. It always depends what the main objective is.
2- Could POTUS turn to violence/agression? Too late.! He has verbally threatened allies, and even the people in the USA.
Let’s not forget, according to survey, that there are more guns per 100 civilian people in the USA than anywhere else in the world. I am convinced that not all of them are, or support Republicans/POTUS. As violence is never one sided, and could easily turn against him too.