I offered some thoughts on why Trump won, and the Democrats lost in the US presidential election yesterday. When doing so, I said I reserved the right to return to this issue and reconsider my position, and a day on, I want to offer some further thoughts.
A number of things need to be said at the outset. The first is that I do not think that the USA voted for populist fascism. They might get it. They might also get all the consequences of it, from increased prices to growth in corporate power to greater insecurity, lower wages, costly healthcare, poorer quality education, and very much more. I do not, however, think that is what they voted for, and I believe it is important to make the distinction.
There were, of course, some in the USA who understood and wanted this agenda.
There are others who undoubtedly want to rid the country of, as they see it, those who have arrived illegally, without considering the fact that the vast majority of Americans are descended from those who arrived illegally, because that's how the American population was originally built on the basis of those who came to its shores seeking a new home.
There were also those who voted for Trump thinking he has a messianic role.
I do, however, think that the fanatics are a decided, whilst vocal, minority of those who voted for Trump.
Many more who did so and tipped the balance in his favour voted for Trump because nothing that the Democrats were suggesting looked to be meeting their needs. It was not what they said that mattered, although there were decided problems with their messaging that was too often condescending in tone. It was what they have done that mattered. Even saying that, though, is not enough because their core problem is not what they have done but what they have not done.
The Democrats have become the party of a middle higher management elite that has done well from a financialised USA, and wants nothing to disrupt what it might deliver for them as a consequence.
Bankers were not held accountable after 2008, and instead, they did very well during that crisis.
The same might also be said to be true of the Covid crisis, where some in the USA did very well out of the financial support supplied to businesses and even households.
The Democrats have not tackled inequality.
The Democrat schemes for healthcare might now be under threat, but if, despite them, you faced the risk of bankruptcy because of ill health, they provided little in the way of comfort.
And when inflation is taken into account, Democrat control of the White House in 20 of the last 32 years has not resulted in any significant real pay rises for working-class and lower-middle-class America. Most now do, at best, feel no better off than they did at the start of the Clinton era and in a political system where growing incomes is the chosen indicator of success, the Democrats seem to have failed.
When, alongside that, growth has been allowed to massively increase inequality, with that inequality being flaunted in a media all too willing to project its reality to those who are struggling, then nothing has prevented that from being noticed.
People did not vote for Harris because - fear of Trump apart - she gave them no reason to do so.
When asked about her policies, she arrogantly pointed people towards her website, where illumination was not forthcoming.
When asked to differentiate herself from Biden, she could not or was not willing to do so.
When challenged about her vision, it was apparent that she had none. Maintaining the status quo that clearly does not function for the majority of people in the USA is not a vision. It is, instead, a rather poor management policy.
Trump's victory is not, in that case, a ringing endorsement of all that he will be doing, whatever he would like to claim. Nor does it suggest that most Americans believe in what he is offering. I very much doubt that they do. Instead, what people are saying is that more of the failed neoliberal same is not what they want. Trump offers a difference, and that is good enough at this moment, even if the consequences for those who voted for him might well be dire.
So what do people want? In no particular order, I suggest:
- Wages sufficient that people might live upon them and maintain their families
- A social safety net if everything goes wrong
- Affordable homes
- A guarantee of healthcare
- Fair provision for old age and care in it
- Decent education for their children
- A planet that is safe in the future
- A sense of security
- A sense of pride
- A feeling of participation
- A sense of hope
- The chance to live and not just survive
I have no doubt that this could be improved, but the point is that these are basic things that far too many people cannot enjoy, whether in the USA or elsewhere. Enormous wealth has not delivered the fulfilment of basic needs to most people in countries dominated by neoliberal thought. There can be no surprise that people now feel alienated by those now promoting that thinking.
It is my belief that in many ways Trump is an arch neoliberal, most especially when it comes to the unleashing of corporate power. However, he was not perceived in that way by this electorate and won as a consequence.
So, the political question for this moment, and for our time, is how do we deliver those most basic of needs to everyone that ensures that people can live the lives that they want? Unless political economy is about that, then what is it for, and what is our discussion here for?
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Buy me a coffee!
Bernie Sanders gave this as the reason for Trumps victory
https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1854271157135941698
The Guardian expanded on it
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/06/kamala-harris-us-elections-donald-trump-victory
Exactly the same issues apply in the UK, indeed most of the developed world
Bernie’s was good
I will get to the other one…
I’m afraid the fact that Bernie knew all of those things, but did almost nothing to pressure the Democratic party to address them was a major reason Trump won. He and the rest of the ‘squad’ sold out their supporters – never withheld their votes and never pushed for serious change. They didn’t raise the issue of Biden’s obvious decline or Harris’s parachuting into place. Most appallingly they’ve just grandstanded as Harris & Biden enabled a genocide. They’ve been part of the problem for the last 8 years. Do not put your faith in them now.
Add to that the often hysterical over-reaction to every Trump story (the latest being the flagrant lying that he called for Lis Cheney to be put infront of a firing squad) and you can see why many in the US were immune to the talk of a fascist state.
Anotehr troll appears…
Have you not noticed some of tne Squad have lost primaries?
Do you realy think they had a chance?
Don’t call again if this is what you have to offer.
Adrian D’s comment is not true. I have seen literally hundreds of posts, Senate speaches, etc by Bernie Sanders condeming the genocide. He and others like AOC have also been outspoken about what was wrong with the Democrat campaign. Unfortunately Sanders has been treated by the Democratic Party in much the same way as Labour has treated Corbyn in the UK. I suspect a Sanders type set of policy proposals would have beaten Trump easily, but at the cost of upsetting the oligarchy that back the Dems.
Agreed
“Unfortunately Sanders has been treated by the Democratic Party in much the same way as Labour has treated Corbyn in the UK.”
And they treat AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to give her the proper due and respect deserved) the exact same way.
Agreed
Tha is obvious even from afar
She is the Faiza Shaheen of US politics
But Sanders could have run as an independent against Clinton :
Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders: Sheepdogging for Hillary and the Democrats in 2016
https://www.blackagendareport.com/bernie-sanders-sheepdog-4-hillary
Who Should Bernie Voters Support Now? Robert Reich vs. Chris Hedges on Tackling the Neoliberal Order https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr4cXH3Fil8
Chris Hedges: Bernie and the Squad have been Bought Off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKHHBx1itwc
Must admit easy to criticise and he would have been slaughtered as Ralph Nader was… but it may have helped others to ferment change in the Democrats. Lets hope he keeps up the rhetoric against the DNC and enough support is gathered to oust the incumbants. Failing that a Jill Stein green coalition with breakaway democrats ?
We have a similar problem in the UK.
Possibly a coalition (greens, lib dems, snp, disaffected labour, independents) at the general election, then a referendum straight afterwards on proportional voting , then immediately new elections.
An excellent analysis, which fits well with Aditya Chakrabortty’s article in today’s Guardian: “Why did voters abandon Kamala Harris? Because they feel trapped – and Trump offered a way out”:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/06/kamala-harris-us-elections-donald-trump-victory
My only slim hope to avoid all-out fascism is that the message that Neoliberalism has totally failed and that another system is desperately needed can, somehow or other, be got through not only to Labour in the UK but also to the Democrats in the US or that other so-called ‘left’/’progressive’ parties can emerge to replace them. And the sooner the better.
Thanks
I have no read Aditya – and we are close, I agree
I agree with a lot of what you say. Also I would add that after speaking to some American friends and some, who in my mind were very unlikely to vote for Trump, they did so because they are really tired of what they see as sanctimonious virtue signalling of the left. This could range from American Collages overrun with what some would describe as “apologists for Islamic terror groups to children starting schooling being encouraged to believe they’ve been “born in the wrong body”. It was stressed to me that much of the reason for voting Trump in was “non economic” although I am sure the “American first” slogan struck a chord across the piste. And obviously Trump captured a large chunk of the hispanic vote so this wasn’t an election won on skin colour as many pundits want us to believe. I think a lot of factors influencing the outcome of the US election are obviously mirrored in the UK and Europe where extreme “progressive ideology” is being rejected and this is not based on race, immigration or economic factors.
I am not sure I agree with all that
I think it was the economy
Thank you, both.
I agree with Richard, especially from work away from NYC and DC, e.g. Buffalo (HSBC) and Pittsburgh (Mellon / BNYM) and Jacksonville (Deutsche). I also know the south, New England mid Atlantic states away from the tourist trails well.
As is said about Binghamton, NYS, it’s not the Hamptons, the latter favoured by Wall Street and its Dixiecrat proxies.
Much to agree with
“There are others who undoubtedly want to rid the country of, as they see it, those who have arrived illegally”
I personally believe that illegal migrants was the overriding issue causing votes to be cast for Trump as illegal migrants are blamed for all the problems in the USA though illegal migrants really have nothing to do with the problems. This is really no different than BREXIT.
Agreed
“apologists for islamic terror groups” are probably people who are pointing out the realities of Israeli policies.
The only argument the pro-Israel lobby have now, it seems, is to de-humanise and blame the Palestinians.
“This could range from American Collages overrun with what some would describe as “apologists for Islamic terror groups to children starting schooling being encouraged to believe they’ve been “born in the wrong body”.
Care to provide any evidence that these are descriptions of what is actually happening rather than hysterical nonsense by right-wingers? Are you seriously expecting me to believe that all children starting school are faced with a barrage of suggestions that they have been born in the wrong body? I suggest you and your friends take a few deep breaths and return to reality.
Sick of the “left”? It’s no surprise Americans don’t realise that “left” in the US context is just relative to the Republicans. The US Democrats are not a left wing party. They are neoliberals, just a bit less extreme than the Republicans. The American Overton Window has been jammed stuck on the right for decades. It’s why the Democrats have done little more than the Republicans for ordinary Americans as Richard said. It’s why they pursue the policies they do in the Middle East, from Clinton to Obama to Genocide Joe. I don’t think anyone in the ME – Israelis aside perhaps – note much if any difference between Democrats and Republicans. The left – or “Commies” as they are disparagingly referred to as – do exist: people like Cornel West, who are literally locked out of the system. President Carter was probably the nearest Democrat to the left in decades (the only example I can think of is FDR). All the American electorate have now is a binary choice between right and very right. No wonder the place is in such a mess.
@Bernard Somner. Completely agree about “sanctimonious virtue signalling of the left”. How utterly stupid of US Democrats to hand such a gift to the right. Talk about an own goal.
But whats not to like if you’re a ‘centrist’ lefty?
You can be ‘progressive’ AND also NOT have to spend any money! Yay – inclusivity AND fiscal probity boxes both ticked! There’s a growing list of such a goody, goody, self-congratulatory politicians on the soft left who’ve embraced that apparent win-win, only to find out that ordinary voters hate it (for very good reasons).
What te you talking about?
Your use of terms makes no sense, for a start
Thank you, Richard.
This morning, it was interesting to hear the BBC breakfast news interview half a dozen people walking around Pennsylvania Avenue. The cost of living and economic prospects were mentioned by all. One young woman mentioned abortion. It was refreshing to hear non PMC voices.
I was in Zurich for a few days and found CNN unwatchable. Full of identity politics and PMC obsessions. Yesterday, some newcomer analysts were on. They talked about the issues that Richard highlights above and how they felt the Dixiecrats had abandoned many voters.
Fun facts: Most of Harris voters earn over $100k pa. Most of Trump voters earn under $100k pa.
Vance, who comes from a poor family in Appalachia, has said what’s good for Google isn’t the same as what’s good for America. Many Republican commentators used the term working class over the past week. Watch this space in 2028. One leftist American commentator doubted the Dixiecrats / limousine liberals would learn before 2040.
The Republican party hierarchy are not going to do anything to lessen their income or power.
I doubt they will do more than tinker on behalf of the working class.
One hopes even the Americans will wake up to this.
The Democrats need to dust off the New Deal politics.
Thank you, Ian.
I don’t disagree.
Most, but not all, of my American friends, colleagues and a relative lean Democrat, if not to the left / Bernie Sanders. Some did not vote in the presidential race, but did down ballot, and some voted Republican, hoping to bring the Dixiecrats back to being New Deal Democrats.
I love “fun statistical facts “but they can be a bit confusing. This time, it is said that most Dem voters earn over 100K while most GOP voters earn under that figure. ( TBH the figure sounds a bit high. Are there enough voters with that kind of income to constitute the bulk of a large Party’s support?)
But, just after Trumps first victory, I read that the average income of his voters was 59K per year. The equivalent Clinton voters income was 51K, a bit less. And the average income of all Americans at the time was 50K. Also less than voters for both Parties.
I’m not a statistician. Are these amounts contradictory? Especially as it suggests that wages have risen hugely since 2016 and that Trumps voters are now less well-off than Dems whereas it had been the opposite 8 years ago.
Isn’t the election of Trump a mirror image of our 2019 general election, where the “red wall” constituencies voted Tory? Corbyn offered an alternative, but, even before his political assassination (over false claims of anti-Semetism), nobody listened to his explanations. As Ronald Reagan once said, “If you’re explaining then you’re losing”. Johnson and the Tories used very effective propaganda, short, emotionally charged, prejudice reinforcing soundbites. Trump uses the same technique. The UK public became disillusioned and voted the Tories out in 2024, ironically choosing a Labour Party modelled on the Democrats that, despite a little meddling in the recent budget, promises to perpetuate the status quo, even to some extent continuing the scapegoating of certain groups of people for the ills of society. Forecasts expect little improvement in living standards during this parliament, so even if public services are improved will that be sufficient to persuade the public to stick with Labour at the next GE?
People like certainty, and that is what Johnson and Trump (and Farage) appear to offer
My short, succint, version of what people want is to live happily ever after (as in every good fairy story). More is just detail.
Is any politician going to offer it, for all?
Agree with your blog Richard and Starmer needs to take note for 2029.
Thank you, Malcolm.
David Edgerton and Aditya Chakrabortty tweeted that yesterday.
Morgan McSweeney has been at Harris HQ. One wonders if he has learnt anything.
Morgan MacSweeney learning anything? I doubt it. He seems to me to be a textbook example of what Catholic Moral Theology terms “invincible ignorance
Or maybe it is “vincible ignorance”?
(See this from Wikipedia “Invincible ignorance excuses from all culpability. An action committed in ignorance of the law prohibiting it, or of the facts of the case, is not a voluntary act”. On the other hand, it is culpable to remain willfully ignorant of matters that one is obligated to know (vincible ignorance – Wikipedia at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vincible_and_invincible_ignorance).
All a very convoluted way of saying that McSweeney is yet another politico deserving of being skewered by Dennis Skinner’s matchless description of a particularly stupid Tory (other Party affiliations not exempt) Minister as
“Educated beyond his intelligence”!
(I think that also applies to the Wall Street/Dixiecrat Democrats)
🙂
Thank you, Richard.
Richard and readers may be interested in the economic context of Trump’s victory: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/WP_221-Ferguson-and-Storm-Second-Coming-final-May-17.pdf.
The Washington Post’s exit polls included an item that 67% of voters rated their economic prospects as poor or not so good, but the MSM and PMC, including their delusional UK West Wing obsessed wannabes*, kept banging on about the stock market and property prices. *Types that I often come across through work and who are not fit to lace the shoes worn by Richard, Mike Parr and John S Warren.
Another fun fact to highlight how badly Harris performed: The most Hispanic county in the US is Starr, Texas. 97% Hispanic. It has not voted Republican since 1892. Trump won by 16%. It does not help that id pol obsessed Dixiecrats call Latinos Latinx, a term Latinos do not use and feel insulted by.
Something else: The number of women going into skilled trades like welding, construction etc. is rising, 47% from a low base over 2017 – 22. Such women prioritise pay and job security, something the Dixiecrats / limousine liberals and their Hollywood only fans no longer do.
All well and good but unless we create an alternative to our current political parties we will get nowhere. Reforming Labour has proved impossible for over 50+ years and it remains impossible.
The “Fairness and Justice Party” (fjp.org.uk) has been around for a while but will get nowhere.
We know what we want – getting there is the hard part! Does anyone know any charismatic potential leaders who put people first and are not careerists out to line their own pockets?
It was striking that Harris emphasised over and over her middle-class background and her support for the middle-classes in the US just as Starmer, Reeves etc., emphasised that LINO was for working people.
It is a great big “F*** You” to people who do not belong to those cohorts.
So why should those who are “othered” vote for them? There were no policies to help them and their families, just the usual bowing down to the monied.
Hi, one other ‘fun fact’ that I’ve just looked up is that Trump polled about 1.5M fewer votes than in 2020, whereas Harris polled just over 13M fewer votes than Biden in 2020. Supports a lot of what’s said here about the Dems missing the point, and roughly matches one poster’s analogy with Corbyn in 2019, where the labour vote was about 2.5M down on 2017 and the Conservative vote was up by only about 300,000.
Indeed, you are spot on, Nigel, about the most widely ignored feature of this supposedly frantically excited election. Fewer people voted than last time. Turnout was down as were the totals for both candidates. Trump only by a bit but Harris by a landslide. This election, so hyped as one of excited crowds and mass engagement, was not that at all.
Why? One reason is undoubtedly voter suppresion tactics by the Trumpist Republicans but the slide overall shows that something/s larger than this kept voters away and suggests a malaise that cannot be partisanly written off as the product of this or that failed offer or campaign shortcoming. The danger from here on in, is that a wider weakening of faith in the electoral and political process leaves a country enfeebled in the face of a man and faction in love with overweening power and a number of exceptionalist and pseudo-religious beliefs about their own rightness. The ‘U’ K should also beware. The Starmerites are also rulers by disenchantment – and, now, we can see where this can lead. The alarms should be ringing here too.
Dear Richard,
As my brother, Bernie Sanders said, the Democrats abandoned the working class and, unsurprisingly, they abandoned the Democrats. In some ways the Labour Party is even more willing to damage the majority of people in behalf of the very rich. When I was Health and Social Care Spokesperson for the Green Party we tried hard to get Labour MPs to support Caroline Lucas’ bill to ‘Reinstate the NHS’. This was a detailed proposal aimed at fully funding the NHS and ending the privatisation brought in by Labour and Conservative governments. It was not an easy task. Corbyn and McDonnell and, I think, 4 others joined in. Caroline then gave the bill for reintroduction to Labour MPs, hoping they would be more acceptable. But I don’t think they ever exceeded 30 out of some 200.
I think your analysis of the Democrats defeat is powerful and accurate.
I am still puzzled by the reluctance of you and your excellent commentators to appreciate the significance of the Green Party of England and Wales. I don’t think there is anything in your account of what people need and want that is not embodied in our policies and the work of our MPs. It is true that we are not yet strong enough to threaten the two-party hegemony but how much we have accomplished in the difficult British system! When I was elected in 2005 to Oxfordshire County Council there were about 80 Councillors in the country. Now there are over 800. At the last General Election we got nearly 2 million votes. It has been slow and difficult. (There is nothing important that is not difficult). I believe that as the Labour Party’s failures mount we will win the support of millions more. There are 3 major political forces in Britain: the far-right Conservative/Farage bloc, the Labour Party and the Greens. Only one offers a society which aims at the well-being and dignity of all. I am more and more proud and grateful to be a Green.
Larry
Thanks for the comment.
You might recall I had major problems with the GP economic policy. I gather that is now being reviewed. That might make it easier to support them.
Best
Richard
The story of Labour v Greens is being worked out live right now in Bristol – the various chapters in the story include City Mayoralty (abandoned as too authoritarian, non-collaborative), Metro Mayoralty (utterly useless esp on transport, up for grabs in May when Norris, now Labour MP, resigns), City Council (Greens just 1 seat short of a majority, Labour losing ground over sev years), and parliamentary constituencies, esp Bristol Central (was Bristol W) where Carla Denyer Green co-leader beat Thangham Debbonaire of Labour Shadow Cabinet – that reflected local fury at authoritarian Starmerite/Evans takeover of the CLP as part of purge of the Corbynite left, plus steady longer term genuine Green growth on the ground. All the Bristol seats saw Greens do well, eg Bristol S they came 2nd in a v deprived constituency. It’s a complicated place Bristol, but a good testing ground for whether Greens can break through across several demographics. We also have good community owned alternative media, esp Bristol Cable, and some interesting community energy schemes. It’s long term, its about community empowerment, its edgy, its progressive, its happening now, it is far from perfect, it engages with REAL people in poverty, its listening, and Starmer’s style of politics really pisses Bristol people off. Watch Bristol, its a testbed for many of the issues we discuss here, as local Greens actually have to deliver in the city, but with Reeves’s Labour spending constraints.
I think you will ‘find it easier to support’, Richard. Your name is invoked (?!) on occasions, positively, in the revision process…
Thanks 🙂
Thanks Larry,
“There are 3 major political forces in Britain: the far-right Conservative/Farage bloc, the Labour Party and the Greens. Only one offers a society which aims at the well-being and dignity of all.”
In the absence of Labour being made to see sense and radically chance direction (which is looking very unlikely), the Greens indeed seem the best placed going forward, especially if they can – as Richard sugests they may be doing – adopt a better economic policy and it is good to see how they are – slowly but surely – gaining traction.
As a long-term resident offered the chance to vote in the UK at the last election, I decided to do just that. Despite having always voted Labour before moving to France in 1984, I opted to vote Green (in a safe Labour seat, so no risk of letting in a Tory!) and was encouraged to find I was far from alone. As expected, Labour won, but with a much increased Green vote.
If the Green Party gets to the point of being a half way serious threat to the 2 party system and gets the full blown media scrutiny, their stance on transgender and treatment of anyone who is at all gender critical will collapse the Party – much as with Corbyn and the antisemitism campaign.
Larry, please use your influence to get the Green Party to focus on treating everyone with respect and not to ill treat / ban women who have concerns about some of the demands of the aggressive trans gender lobby who have thoroughly infiltrated the Green Party.
I am aware that this is a big issue for many who will not support the Greens as a result of this.
I m also aware that the trans issue is real and needs to be treated with respect. I am one of thsoe who thinks that the Party has not found the right balance.
@AliB As a Green party member, I completely agree that ‘identity’ entryists have done their best to kick out those who stand for sex-based rights. But please be aware that some members are fighting back against the fanatics. Such as former deputy leader Sharar Ali who won a court case against the party for discrimination. Other cases are coming to court and, with party legal bills now having drained party funds to the tune of £1 million so far, something has to give. Please check out https://greensinexile.org.uk/ for more details.
Larry, with the greatest of respect, I’m puzzled why the Green Party has not put it’s weight behind MMT. Richard’s point about your economic policy is correct.
Unless the GP radically changes its thinking, you will be unable to offer any of the alternatives you suggest you can, but changing it could offer so much more.
Sean
I think we should wait to see what comes out from the GP economic policy review….
I know it going out for review soon, because I have been told so
Richard
No mention of Scotland Larry?. Since 2007 the Scottish Government has largely been made up of central/left political parties, including your mates, The Scottish Green Party. Or, and I am an S.N.P member, do we not count, are we not a major political party, albeit we don’t have many M.Ps at the moment. I would argue that our part of Britain, has been the best governed country of the U.K for over seventeen years, and unlike the rest of the “country”, as commentators like to describe the U.K, when of course meaning England,we are sidelined, when in fact, you would struggle to survive, without our abundance of natural resources.
Apart from the over emphasis on identity politics what also puts me off the Greens is there continued support for NATO and the sense that they are not really left. If they had collaborated with Corbyn then a softer Brexit could have been achieved and also they were supportive of the anti-Semitic allegations made against the left
Jonathan Pie nails it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0eq7VNCcYY&t=197s&ab_channel=JonathanPie
He and I are on a wavelength, expressed slightly differently
Seems all Jonathan Pie’s youtube vids need a sign-in to view them. Too big a price for me….
Really?
Yes. Weird? I try NEVER to let youtube profile my watching habits (ever since its extensive censorship of several acclaimed biochemists during theCovid19 PHEIC), but principally because I suspect it’s applied by the corporate entity behind Jonathan Price (Tom Walker/ Tom Walker inc?).
(When I use duckduckgo in F’fox, I can usually chose to watch utube vids ‘here’ – i.e. on my search results page away from YouTube -‘ but not JP vids (still insists on a log-in when i watch it ‘here’ (on search results page).
I’m daft that way, never use socialmedia either.
I gave in to it years ago
RonaldM,
I use Brave (browser) and I was able to watch the video ok without being signed in.
YouTube will now ask you to sign in to view videos if you have a VPN running.
All of the critique of the Democrats and Harris maybe true. I haven’t followed it closely enough to know and I’m not sure many UK based journalists know enough either. But even if the analysis is correct I don’t think it explains sufficiently why so many millions voted for a fraud and proto-fascist when the other option was by far the lesser of two evils, just as Starmer and the Labour Party were here.
Trump is an elderly confused white man, possibly suffering from dementia who did not deliver on many of his promises during his first term despite lying that he did (https://www.factcheck.org/2021/10/trumps-final-numbers/).
“Trump is not only a woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath. He is also a profound threat to the international order.“ (D Lammy). He boasted about groping women and may well use federal law to stop abortion.
“a convicted felon, a man who sought to overthrow a democratic election result with violence, and someone who has been found guilty of rape by a court” (R Murphy)
He lies habitually, 30k fact checked, propagates conspiracies, misinformation, creates hate, promises to “go after” political opponents, says re voting they wouldn’t “have to do it any more”, will be a dictator…..and too much more to repeat here.
However bad you might think Harris and her party to be how can anyone possibly think Trump and his billionaire cult followers is the answer?
A fairly long, but analytical summary of the ‘why’:
https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/the-politics-of-cultural-despair
My concern as expressed by others here is that the attitudes of the Democrats are those mirrored by Labour, and come 2029 if nothing changes we in the UK may be subject to a similar ‘far right’ election shock.
Is it any wonder that people feel that things are far beyond their control; two recent personal examples – our household insurance premium this year increased 50% with the same provider and we struggled to beat it elsewhere – and a new tyre which at the beginning of the year was £103 was quoted yesterday at £171 by the same fitters. How has it got to this?
Thank you, John.
Hedges has similarly good analysis on his You Tube channel, too/
I found this article useful and insightful. The conclusion from whatever angle it is viewed does not seem to bode well for the USA.
https://open.substack.com/pub/dropsitenews/p/bernie-would-have-won?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=3t6d5
Thank you, Stephen.
This is why St Barack Obama orchestrated what is also known in the US as the night of the long knives to defeat Sanders in 2020. Sanders won Iowa, but the count was rigged to enable Pete Buttigieg claim that he goes to New Hampshire victorious.
Just as Labour and the Tories have many policy similarities, so the Democrats and Republicans. For many people, there was no viable third option, and that’s because both electoral systems are designed to keep it that way. So people voted against a party. In general, both sides of the Atlantic have been denied more left-wing options.
Since the mainstream media is a part of the problem, we won’t get to read about genuine reasons people voted the way that they did.
There was nothing about Gaza.
Nothing about more public services.
We’ve all been gaslit. Again.
The Gaza war didn’t help the democratic party this time around. At the same it didn’t hurt Trump even when Trump and the republicans are more pro-Israel than democratic party. This Republican party portrays the democratic being the same as Jeremy Corbyn even when facts say otherwise. In the current climate being wrong on facts wont lose you an election.
The information environment is extremely toxic. Trumps comments about the labour party is proof of that, yet the conservative party accuse the labour party of inflammatory language towards Trump. Well the conservatives are going in the same direction as Trump. And this will continue. Labour government in power for 1 term only, just like Biden.
As is my way when a monster becomes President-Elect, I was encouraged that Jill Stein (who did mention Gaza) was able to stand in 20 states and that she didn’t fail miserably. I agree with most of her positions, so I’m not necessarily objective here. As in 2016, she reportedly got 1% of the national vote, but over 20% (22%?) in Dearborn Michigan., about half the vote that Harris got and a third of Trump’s in that one area.
All power to her!
Several of my Socialist Dog Walking Curry Club mates (ex Labour) have joined the Greens. One local Labour luminary alleged on social media that these were antisemites!
Letter from Belgium.
At a meeting in Bx last night – going home I went past the usual number of people sleeping rough in the metro (plenty more down in the centre). Today drove under the Bx – Liege motorway & saw yet another bridge being built for a bicycle super highway. The one near us (for another bike super highway) is almost finished – after 2 years of disruption (& vast amounts of CO2 emissions from cars). The highway is used mostly by people on electric bikes – coming from the prosperous suburbs. Another one parallel with the N411 to Namur is being built (but the regional railway – RER – remains unfinished – despite vast amounts of money spent).
Housing (buy it or rent it) has shot up in price and young people I know either depend on the Bank of Mum&dad or rent (and share). Bolt in the reality mentioned above of large numbers of people sleeping rough – including Belgians (one young lady was sleeping in the park near us – we offered her accomodation – but she declined.).
Point: there are a growing number of people that see hwo priorities are all wrong. Money is being spent badly (want to cut down transport emissions? implement proper teleworking – with commune telework centres – nah let’s do sexy bicycle superhighways) and on the wrong things. There is growing discontent & add in the crank up in food prices (on top of housing). Oh & the Audi factory in Bx is closing – couple of thousand well paid jobs gone (plus the add on for the local suppliers). The politicos have no answers. Just like in the USA.
Much to think about
Just picking up Mike Parr’s point about the misuse of money on this most informative post.
Along with the considerable data mining that must have been done by Trump’s team there must have been a hell of a lot of money thrown at what this data revealed in order to get the vote they wanted.
I still cannot say that what we have just seen is democracy in action.
One team outspending another and also collecting unauthorised data on voters to exploit does not make a democracy.
There is something really wrong about all of this which to me is more obvious and frankly staring us in the face. And it is what I have just described.
Can I also chime up for Bernie Sanders? He has been treated really badly by the Democrats. I do not know how he sticks it out.
I think it is time for Nancy Pelosi to go, nevermind anyone else. The rot goes right to the top.
Richard and readers may be interested in: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/07/keir-starmer-politics-labour-populism-donald-trump.
It’s good
He is one of the best at the Graun
The more I think about it the more I think the reason (singular) Harris lost is very simple. She was the status quo, the continuity candidate and, when the same old same old hasn’t improved your lot since Nixon, why would you vote for it
Thoughts from people I know in US who voted for Trump….(not scientific but all from people who do not consider themselves idiots or monsters).
1 – MSM got it very wrong ‘cos it is Democrat run
2 – FEMA reacted really poorly to Florida storms because funds have gone to Ukraine.
3 – Trump put a massive amount of effort into attracting new followers eg young males (through podcasts) who buy into his machoism. Dems stuck to their traditional demograph.
4 – We have no problem with immigration. But we hate illegal immigration. It is out of control and Dems have no answers
5 – Government spending is out of control and Dems have no answers
6 – Inflation in daily budgets is out of control and Dems have no answers
7 -Dems have no answers
Thanks
Yer average American (or Brit) couldn’t define neoliberalism, but Harris sounded too much like same old same old which hasn’t been working for most Americans for 50 years. TBH, I’d be tempted to vote for an insane bull in a china shop, because that’s the ONLY way something different might emerge from the wreckage.
The Democrats Chair, Jaimie Harrison, rejects as “straight up BS”, Bernie Sanders’ claim that Democrats have “abandoned working class people.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/07/bernie-sanders-democrats-election
But Bernie’s right
Of course he is. But the problem is the Democrats refusal and/or inability to see that. They are owned by people other than those they claim to represent, and the working class know it, and so too many of them stayed at home. There are many parallells with our own election with its low turnout, giving a hefty majority without actual majority support, and Farage in the background, with millions of £$ and “Cambridge Analytica” digital deceptions to help him in 2029, while Labour sink into a monetarist economic mess of their own stubborn creation.
I suspect the Americans voted for ‘change’. It’s an attractive offer – it worked for Starmer and, on both sides of the Atlantic, voters will most likely be disappointed to get more of the same.
With different frills and consequences, but more of the same seems to be as good as it might get.
Sadly, at the next election, Farage’s Reform will be the only credible offer of change so heaven help us.
Considering that democracy has been long usurped by neoliberalism, which in turn has effective3ly excluded the working class from its reckoning, it is precisely as Bernie Sanders says – the natural consequence is surely that workers cannot and will not vote for a (to them) unworkable formula.
Does nobody think her being a woman may have put off some Democrats from voting? Black and female may have been a step too far.
Many acknowledge this
Robert Reich said it was an issue this morning
That is a sad reflection on our society
Although not all the votes have been tallied, it seems reasonable to conclude that Harris was unable to secure anywhere near the number of votes that had been forecast by experts closer to the ground then us Uk based citizens. As of writing it appears that over 10 million US voters, who had voted in 2020, did not turn out for anyone. Combine this with the population growth and the significant number of eligible voters who chose to exercise their democratic right through abstaining is irrational if you consider the hellscape portrayed by team Trump.
The post-match analysis began only hours into the count when it was already clear that Trump was holding onto his support and Harris was not even picking up Biden voters, let alone gathering many new enthusiastic supporters.
What should Harris have said or done differently? I will express an opinion on that in a moment.
Trump won because, like an army marches on its stomach, many voters cast their vote, when allowed to, based on the fullness of their stomachs. In today’s America, it’s a little more complicated than that, but in the first instance as you have reflected, people feel poorer and that’s enough reason to vote for change. This fundamental reason to pick Trump created a gap in polling numbers that seems to have been further extended by the ability of those who aren’t struggling to fill their stomachs and own the luxury to punish a candidate because they cannot stomach one of their policies. It is irrational that an individual who cannot stomach Trump will vote for him because they can’t fill their stomach whilst another who cannot stomach Trump will not vote for the Democratic candidate because they cannot stomach the US’s reaction to the conflict in Gaza. Irrational because they have enabled Israel’s greatest friend, Netanyahu’s words, to become President elect.
In fact, I suggest that it’s probable that those who voted for Trump’s return care little for the Gaza conflict, the war in Ukraine, catastrophes associated with manmade climate change, minority or women’s rights, US gun deaths, Trump’s mismanagement of Covid, the list goes on and on. They just care about their stomachs. Of course, in this context stomach is meant to convey a broad range of life’s necessities.
An additional factor is the success that Trump has had in rebranding the GOP. You selected a 32yr period to suggest that the Democrats had failed to address falling wages, but I think you could easily have included Bush Snr’s time, the slow decline in US manufacturing goes back a long way, thereby totalling 16yrs of Republican failure. I don’t believe that Trump voters are voting Republican, they are voting MAGA and Trump. Don’t forget that Don Jnr exclaimed with such pride that it was Donald Trump’s Republican Party. Separation from the past failures of the GOP has been important in persuading voters that they were getting something different.
I could go on, particularly about the roles that the US Justice Dept, the legacy and social media have played in enabling Trump’s return to the WH, but it would take too long.
So, what could Harris have done to win?
Stand more firmly on Biden’s record? Some claim that it was her inability to separate herself from Biden that was the issue. At the same time as Republicans were having selfies taken adjacent to Biden Administration infrastructure projects, projects that they had voted against, the idea that Harris should have distanced herself from these successes is irrational. Claiming that Harris should have talked down record low unemployment, record stock market highs, record GDP, managing inflation without causing a depression is irrational. However, the failure of these policy successes to deliver tangible benefits for the worse off in society undoubtedly hurt any Democrat’s chances of re-election. How long is it reasonable to wait for a course correction to bear fruit? The UK Conservatives were given 14yrs, Biden hasn’t been given 4yrs.
More clearly articulate her vision? Every time I heard her speak, I heard a coherent intelligent politician trying to navigate the choppy waters of not offending too many people, whilst every time I heard Trump speak, I heard an inarticulate ignorant bully looking for a new demographic to upset. He actually pronounced; I don’t need your votes. The belief that Trump has articulated a clearer, more coherent path to greater prosperity is irrational. Irrational because if you look at his business record and record in office it doesn’t support his claims.
Decline the celebrity endorsements because it reinforces her elitism? It is blindingly obvious that celebrity endorsements do not carry much weight with vast swaths of Americans. Trump’s list of celebrity supporters is a very short list of ex-celebrities with a lot of time on their hands but the idea that the man who flies to his rallies in a commercial airliner funded by donations from his penny pinched fans, lives in a luxury resort, inherited $400M and is reportedly worth many billions is not himself an elite, in fact is just an ordinary Joe, is irrational. Ignore the glitzy celebrities for a moment, lets consider Trump’s former employees. The list of former employees who were unwilling to endorse him, even warned against him, is staggering. Trump voters didn’t seem to care and dismissed them as malcontents. That Trump voters can chose to ignore Trump hires as bad people, when he claimed that he would only hire the best people, is irrational. Its irrational they maintain faith in his ability when he’s repeatedly demonstrated his incompetence.
It’s all irrational until you factor in the concept of ‘sunk cost fallacy’. MAGA devotees have oceans of investment, mountains of sunk costs in Trump. There is simply no way out. The conned have no route back. America’s greatest ever fraudster. A conman like the world has never seen has them on a leash and many will go to their graves, some already have, believing his pitch. Regardless of what the future brings. The excuses are already well documented. Trump is the leader of a cult, it has more in common with the Church of Scientology than the Republican Party of old. Nobody knows how it will end but like all things it will end.
At the moment that Biden faltered, the unpreparedness of the Democratic Party for such an event gifted Trump his opportunity. Nothing that any Democratic candidate might have done, apart from the unconscionable, could have prevented Trump 2.0.
On a cheerier note, cast your mind back to December 2019. The boy king had just secured a very healthy majority, and the common wisdom was that the reign of Johnson would be glorious and at least 2-3 Parliaments long. Then the rubber hit the road, and we all know what happened, by the time he skulked off, the bus had no axles, let alone any wheels. Although unlikely, it’s time to hope that the crash of the MAGA bus is as painless for the world as it was when the Johnson jalopy careered over the cliff.
Thanks
Much to muse on
https://open.substack.com/pub/thenewrepublic/p/why-does-no-one-understand-the-real?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1yu8f4
Worth a read.
Agreed
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=3760120084249505&set=a.1387958351465702