Trump has regained the US Presidency, but the policies he has proposed will be disastrous for the American people, delivering chaos, inflation and high interest rates alongside fear for many. The people of the USA might have voted him out to be rid of neoliberalism, but he is not the answer to any known question. So, what is?
This is the transcript:
Trump has won the US presidential election. Don't expect me to be excited. I'm not.
It is only recently that I made a video suggesting that Trump is a fascist, and let me be clear, I have not changed my mind.
Trump's declared policies with regard to migration, where he wants to deport maybe 11 million people from the USA, is fascist.
Trump's attitude towards women and his desire that the state have control of their bodies is fascist.
His intention to integrate some aspects of the faith of some people in the USA into the state mantra is fascist.
His contempt for the rule of law is fascist.
His threats to his opponents, who must now be living in fear, is fascist.
I could keep going but my point is clear. Trump is dangerous from the far-right, and we simply do not know what he is going to do. This puts the world in a very dangerous place given the power of the USA over the whole of the world economy and its supply of the world's reserve currency.
But what can we do about this? There are, as ever, a number of fairly standard reactions that we can have to a crisis situation.
We can, quite simply, ignore it. But I don't think that's a viable option.
We could walk away from it. We could just pretend that this is a problem for the USA and has nothing to do with us. But I don't think that's a viable option.
We could try to reframe it. We could say it won't be that bad. The Supreme Court, despite its domination by people appointed by Trump, won't let him do what he might want. And the fact that he's got majorities in the Senate and maybe in the House will still not prevent them putting some impediments in the way of his delivery of these programs. But I don't think that's possible either. Those reframings are not on the agenda.
So what we have to do is face this, and ask why did this happen, and what are we going to have to do about it?
Why did it happen? In my opinion, it's because of the economy, and because of Trump's ability to promote division within society based around fear.
Let's deal with the second one first. That is a classic fascist technique. If there is no division in an economy, inside a society, or inside a jurisdiction, then the fascists will create it. And Trump has.
As has been the case in the UK and elsewhere across Europe, Trump is using the issue of migration as the basis for generating fear and division and it is clear that he intends to carry through on the delivery of policies that will be deeply dangerous to those who are undocumented in the USA and to the US economy.
So, he is looking to do something that is unprecedented. He wants to expel large numbers of people from the USA in a way that we do not know how to manage. Nor does he. This is deeply worrying. But we must expect that if Trump does that, then the same might happen here.
So, what about the economy? Why is that going to be the issue that is going to be so problematic?
Firstly, it is because Trump does not have a coherent economic strategy. He's been talking about slashing government. Musk is apparently going to be brought in to reduce the scope and scale of government on an unprecedented level. This could create mayhem in the USA.
Musk cut the workforce of Twitter by 80%. He's claiming he could do the same in the USA and close down whole departments of government. This would be unprecedented and create chaos. The government of the USA exists for a reason. It is to provide stability and services, and Trump wants to upset that.
There are further dimensions of his economic policy that make no sense. In particular, his claim that he can use tariffs to replace some of existing taxes and therefore make the people of the USA better off; this is nonsense. Tariffs will impose charges on the vast majority of people in the USA at levels that they simply are not aware of at present.
A tariff does not get paid by the country exporting goods to the USA. A tariff is paid by the people of the country that imports goods. The people of the USA are going to see significant tax rises as a consequence of Trump's tariff regime and that is going to lead to inflation, the thing that he has promised to eliminate and which he identified as Biden's big economic problem.
As a consequence of these two things, Trump cannot deliver on his economic promise. That, plus the deportations, of course, that he is promising, which will disrupt labour supply. The result is that he is simply not going to be able to deliver on his promises.
The consequence of this is that Trump, who is being elected to deliver what his supporters think to be the word of God, if you like, the promise of the perpetual glory that they think is theirs to be enjoyed, will not do anything like that.
He's actually going to fail badly. What happens then? Is it just going to be a reversion to neoliberalism as was and as was represented by Harris, or is there going to be something else?
For example, are the forces around Trump going to try to retain power come what may?
Or, will there be sufficient legacy of the status quo, the rule of law, the system and constitution of US government, that there will, in fact, be future elections? And if there are future elections, what will the offering be?
Now, this, to me, is perhaps the most important point because that offering which is going to beat Trump cannot be what Trump has already defeated, which is, in effect, the neoliberalism of Harris and Biden and Obama and Clinton and all that went before them from the Democrats. That model has failed. But what is the replacement?
We have very little time to answer that question because the foundations of that alternative have to be laid now.
It has to be sustainable.
It has to deal with the problems of inequality.
It has to deliver for ordinary people in the sense of increasing their well-being.
It has to supply decent public services.
It has to remove the basis for fear in society: the fear of old age, the fear of being without housing, the fear of sickness, the fear of bankruptcy that results from those things in the US, and might here if they're privatised in the way that Kemi Badenoch wants.
We have to have answers as to how government could work, not in the way that Trump wants, not in the way that Harris wanted, but in the way that people need it to work. And that is the critical point here.
When I said we can't walk away from this, when I said we can't just ignore this, and when I said this is not just a US problem, what I meant was that we too have to think about this issue in a way that ensures that we have the answers to all the things that Labour is not going to address here, just as much as the Democrats didn't address the real issues in the economy in the USA.
If we are to avoid a future which involves Badeonoch and Farage, whether in isolation or working together, delivering a far-right agenda in this country, we cannot presume that the centre-right, which is the ground that Labour now occupies, has any answer to any known problem.
We have to create a genuine left-of-centre alternative, where left-of-centre simply means that we are focused upon the needs of real people and not on the needs of finance, not on the needs of government to supposedly balance its books, and not on the needs of a short term market that is utterly uninterested in the long term consequences of its actions as seen in climate change.
That is what we've got to do. That is the agenda that we have very little time to progress. And that is what I will be working on.
Trump is a call to action for everybody who cares about the future.
He isn't the future. That's obvious. He's too old to be a part of it. But he threatens the future of billions of people.
And we've got to provide an alternative answer.
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A second factor in the Trump ascendancy is misogyny. Harris was presented as female, too emotional, intellectually limited, with the other side of the equation – primarily through social media and influencers like Joe Rogan – that ‘real men’ take charge of their women and command all decisions, the solution to a crisis of masculinity with the Democrats turning men into ‘pussies’. Elon Musk believes that women should not have the vote. This is a message already percolating over here via social media, aimed at young men in particular.
Misogyny is undoubtedly growing here
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/06/us-election-trump-presidency-women
Back in January I started to look for alternative MPs who, as Mike Parr puts it, know how to “do stuff”.
It seemed to me that democracy starts locally.
Long story short I came across Assemble which starts with tiny local groups getting together to improve stuff locally, and builds into a national Assembly.
https://timetoassemble.org/house-of-the-people/
Assemble might well not be the whole answer.
But maybe is it the start of the thinking that will produce the answer. and pull forth the people to create the answer.
Thanks for that link Shelagh.
I’ve been a little involved in facilitating assemblies like this and I agree that they are a good alternative tool to have lying around ready.
Plus this has been shown to work in much tougher circumstances (Rojava). It’s more work for the citizenry, but I think offers a better hope of being maintained over time.
Great idea!
I had a wee taste of this sort of thing in the run up to Scotland’s 2014 referendum – “Democracy Max” – link to it here – https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/publications/a-vision-for-a-good-scottish-democracy/ – extraordinary experience which demonstrated, in my view, that the values and skills to do do things better, exist far more at street-level than in our Parliaments and Local Authorities.
Thanks for the link Shelagh, I’ve signed up. I did a little facilitating of this kind of thing for Andrew Feinstein’s campaign. I agree, a great tool to have lying around, ready for the next crisis. especailly as it’s been proved to work under much tougher circumstances (Rojava).
I absolutely agree that we need to work hard to create a viable alternative political option to the prevailing ideology. However, having watched some of the US election coverage, I haven’t seen any evidence that people voted for Trump to get rid of neoliberalism. I’m not convinced that his supporters would even understand the term – any more than most UK voters would.
The term does not matter
The indifference to the ‘ordinary person’ within it is what matters
“I haven’t seen any evidence that people voted for Trump to get rid of neoliberalism.”
You are correct, people who voted for Trump were actually voting to end neoliberalism, however the Trump voters did not know what they were voting for as they have no idea or understanding of the definition of neoliberalism.
MAGAts are going to be very disappointed. No matter what Trump says, he will not end neoliberalism.
Trump is not “a doer”. Trump is marketer who know what to say and how to say it in order to get what he wants in the short term.
Trump wanted to be elected POTUS in order to stay out of jail and delay further lawsuits.
People here are massively disappointed by Labour but there is no way to really express the ‘buyer’s regret’ that I predicted that they would suffer. I suspect that will only compund that regret in the US, as it has here.
The more things change the more they stay the same in politics:-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid
A concise and cogent analysis. The only ‘virtue’ in the result of this election is that it makes it crystal clear that the task of building a new centre-left progressive politics is now a global emergency – and the only place to start for us is where we are now. Like the climate, there is no spare time left.
Thank you, Richard.
With regard to the challenges created by Trump, how about Labour sending publicly, not just party activists, but MPs and Morgan McSweeney, to not just campaign, but help with strategy at Harris HQ, too? That is before Lammy’s tweets, Sadiq Khan’s balloon and the decision not to invite Musk to the recent investment pow wow.
One can imagine Labour having to do something to get into Trump’s good books. We no longer have the EU as shelter, not that Starmer is interested in any form of rapprochement.
I see no reaosn to try to be in Trump’s good books
He does not care about us, at all
And Labour could never achieve that goal – he will think them a buch of Marxists as Farage does.
“He does not care about us, at all”
Trump does not even care about the USA. Trump only cares about Trump.
That is the impression he gives
Thank you, Richard.
I don’t disagree, but think there are donors and the Blair machine who think otherwise.
Blair has a relationship with Trump, even trying to visit when flying was discouraged during lockdown. I live a few miles from the Blair estates. The Blair family’s view of lock down was / is similar to Leona Hemsley’s view of taxes.
🙂
With Trump in the White House for the 2nd time, we will learn a lot about other people, by how they respond to him.
He has a declared programme (Project 2025 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977njnvq2do ) and has, or will be choosing his lieutenants (eg: Elon Musk). We know his character, we know his previous offences, we know his intentions. There is absolutely NO excuse for ignorance. I personally believe him to be a criminal (a 34 times convicted felon), a fraud, a sex offender (as decided by a civil court), a misogynist (by his own admission), a racist, a fascist and a religious hypocrite.
We have plenty of precedents for what happens when fascist tyrants are appeased. Leaders of courage and principle know where to draw the line.
I’m appalled by the way people are lining up to congratulate Trump as if he were just another newly elected statesman. I’m appalled at the moral bankruptcy, spiritual blindness, and hypocrisy of religious leaders who welcome and revere him as something approaching God’s anointed. They are either grossly deceived, or gross deceivers or both.
I don’t criticise his less well informed supporters, who have been let down, scoffed at and deceived by those with power and influence who have nothing to offer as an alternative.
I will be watching for those leaders and influencers who have the moral integrity and courage to name Trump and his powerful allies for what they are. I will also be noting those who fail to do that, showing that they learned nothing from the 1930’s.
So far, our own PM has declared that he stands shoulder to shoulder with Trump, on the basis of shared values, and our Foreign Secretary, who once called Trump a neo-Nazi sympathiser, has said he is looking forward to working with him. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/06/keir-starmer-congratulates-donald-trump-election-victory
Even allowing for the conventions of international diplomacy, I find both their statements incredibly offensive, and totally unacceptable.
This evil won’t be overcome by silence, or complicity, or despairing inaction. And if the bad people are going to win, then I want to lose with a clear conscience.
Meanwhile, we each have our bit to do, depending on our ability, our circle of influence and willingness to be counted.
It may take time, so pace yourselves!
Only to be expected of people who fail to call a genocide a genocide and who refuse to hold Israel to account.
My view – FWIW – is that this election has been purchased by the mega rich.
In fact this was not an election at all – it was a bidding round/sale of U.S. executive power posing as an election and the bidders had deep pockets and exclusive access.
We are not going to change this until we deal with the money aspect and its corrupting influence politics.
I think that what you are calling for is great and what we need, but it is only time that is going to reveal this, and unfortunately many of us will not live to see the spell that we are under wear off.
In the mean time, what we should do is give any group claiming to be left or centre left a really good kicking and a good look over and put them straight.
As this debacle sets in, we can only really rue the weaknesses of the Democrats and those here in the UK who say that they are on ‘our side’. This is a warning about weak opposition, and weaknesses in power and the stupidity of doing deals with the Devil in the mistaken idea that we modify or attenuate greed.
But the outspending element of this ‘election’ cannot be ignored (the systems we have now are essentially corrupted), nor can the weak defences of democracy.
As the songs says, we’re going to be a long time gone.
Again.
I was appalled at Starmer’s rush to endorse Trump well before it was 110% certain he had been elected and his sycophantic comments re standing shoulder to shoulder are utterly abhorrent. OK, given that the UK especially, as a country who’s defence ability rests on co-operation with the USA, there has to be due politeness and acknowledgement of Trump’s position- but “shoulder to shoulder” . FFS. – not in my name !
How many of the alpha males globally who head up pyramidal governments are actually ‘fit for purpose’ ?
This model for government fails, fails and then fails again.
Those seeking power are usually the least suited to hold it, as noted by both Plato and Macchiavelli.
Add that the dynamics of power are inherently corrupting, and you have a formula for failure.
It is usually worse in unitary than federal systems, but the weaknesses in the US constitution’s separation of powers do make the US a bit of a basket case.
Election turnout levels of 50-60% reflect the average American’s confidence in that system.
Add in those lobbying inequalities, even in most one person/one vote systems, that political funding representing special interests provides (with expected preferential treatment), and the chances of genuinely representative democracy are vanishingly thin.
The notion that a single individual can hold vast power and represent an entire population’s democratic interests, along with a few ambitious acolytes, plus have the capacity to administer these is wholly flawed, both practically and psychologically.
Yet we persist with adversarial power politics as the zenith of parliamentary democracy.
Interestingly, consensus building is often seen as a cissy option by the ‘big beasts’ of politics – mostly male.
Shelagh’s suggestion above, of diversifying political representation to spread decision making more widely, is a start, but it is no accident that those countries with most devolution in terms of local decision making are the most content politically, as engagement with the political process is greatest.
So Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries score highest.
I’ve previously cited Finland with over 300 municipalities for 5.5m people as against Scotland’s 32 local authorities. Finnish municipalities also have much more budgetary autonomy.
The arguments that high levels of devolved decision making, leaning towards participatory democracy, are more expensive and slower don’t seem to have held back the Scandis.
That there is an entire array of socio-political options (and philosophy) predicated on maximum devolution and participatory democracy, like syndicalism and the co-operative movement, for everyday human organisation simply highlights the very thin and inelastic thread that pyramidal power politics provides.
Thanks Richard.
It was good to hear a proactive response to Trump’s total election victory that encourages a search for new solutions to the disastrous impact of neoliberalism on the majority of people. And also to recognise their genuine grievances and concerns about their dwindling economic and social capital rather than supposing more than half the population is wicked or stupid for not wishing to continue support for a neoliberal status quo. I suppose the way the democrats were totally blindsided by Trump’s landslide speaks to a lack of recognition of many peoples’ difficult situations.
I appreciate that realistically only a Democrat or a Republican will win elections in USA. But there was zero mention of the option of a third party/ person in the coverage over here, and I assume very little in America. I’m pretty certain that Jill Stein offered a different vision, but ownership of the MSM and no backing from billionaires ensures it never even gets heard.
Apparently this election saw 34% independents voting, so non-aligned voters, not GOP nor Democrat, both of which are about the 32-34% mark.
Suggests some discontent with both main parties, as this % is well up on previous presidential elections.
Really admire your work Richard but I have to say I think it’s a huge mistake to frame opposition to the scale of illegal immigration that the US has experienced as “fascist”. It just doesn’t make sense to ordinary non-political people.
First of all, it’s illegal. It’s against the laws that we are supposed to abide by.
Secondly, it’s a security threat. It’s incredibly naive to just allow people into your country with no background checks. When I’ve worked abroad I’ve had to present a clean criminal record on several occasions. This security threat is particularly experienced by women and families. And it’s an afront to the poorest that illegal immigrants are being fed and put up in hotels for free while they’re going to food banks. You might say we can afford both but to the non-political mind, it’s a question of priorities.
Thirdly, it’s obviously got plutocrat money behind. So many of the NGOs facilitating this phenomenon are getting their money from seriously wealthy people.
It really concerns me that as neoliberalism starts to come off it’s hinges, the political Left are going to miss the bus in the same way they did in the late 70s because they are determined to pursue politics which much of the public has long since tired of.
There is NOTHING socialist or progressive about millions of young men breaking into your country and it is a colossal political mistake to defend it.
I have long presumed you were trolling – one of a new breed who do so with care for some time before coming out with stuff like this.
This stuff is deep conspiracy theoryu material but utterly meaningless.
Goodbye.
As a dual US/UK citizen, here’s my take on the election results. https://dearscotland.substack.com/p/why-the-collective-meltdown-amongst