In the real world, rather than in that of elections, there is data in employment out this morning.
The Office for National Statistics has published these charts:
The summary is that the Bank of England is getting its way: unemployment is rising, as it wants.
Wages are, for now, sticky, but that is unsurprising: there is always a lag between rising unemployment and wages.
The number of people unable to work is also rising.
And so the number of people available to work is falling.
Put all that together and what do you get? Stagnation, at best.
So much for Rachel Reeves' talk of growth when the Bank of England is determined it should not happen by keeping interest rates high and investment rates low as a result.
When will Reeves take on the Bank? I doubt that she ever will.
So will Labour ever deliver on its plans? Right now, there seems to be not a hope that they can.
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So buyers regret – August? or Sept? Strong & Stable the new “Andrex” gov – able to absorb everything that comes its way and steered by all those nice people in the Bank of England (tail wagging dog anybody?) – maybe the BoE should stand for election? it is certainly calling the shots.
It has. It has installed Rachel Reeves as its candidate.
Just a minor query on the data, Richard (and I realise it’s numbers from the government, not from you!): should the upper age limit be increased to reflect the change in payment of the state pension? As it’s now paid from age 66 (and possibly going higher), will there not be another year’s worth of people who could be “economically inactive”, meaning a further increase in the number unemployed? Or are we wrinklies to be hidden from statistical sight..?
I do not know the answer..
Dear Richard
I saw you previously commented on the QE reserves at the BoE and the interest payments being provided by HMT, would you consider Reform UKs tax threshold rise to income tax at £20k credible?
No
Not for a moment
So, Rishi, is this what an economy going “gang busters” looks like? Lower rates needed now.
I would also add that we should not conflate the issue of policy rates and payment of interest on CBRAs. Two separate issues… although lower policy rates would help the latter issue, too.
Agreed on both points