The FT is reporting that the world is facing a rice crisis.
As they note, the price of rice is rising very fast:
That is partly because India has put a ban on the export of some types of rice most commonly bought in developing countries, and placed minimum prices and export tariffs on other types of rice, like basmati, most commonly bought by countries like the UK.
As the FT suggests:
Analysts warn that if India maintains its current restrictions, and other producers follow, the world is on track for a repeat of the 2008 rice crisis, when a contagion of protectionist policies contributed to rice prices tripling in six months, driving inflation across the globe and sparking civil unrest in north Africa, south Asia and the Caribbean.
This time the crisis could be worse, however, as soaring demand, driven by population growth, collides with the effects of ever more extreme climate change.
That is not an idle warning: there is a real risk of disruption in the market for one of the most basic food commodities on which many countries in the world rely even if they grow none of it.
This is what the reality of growing populations and the climate crisis will look like.
In the UK poverty results in an increase in shoplifting. We can avoid that. We have the means to prevent poverty in this country.
In many countries, those means do not exist. There, poverty means moving. And no effort to prevent small boats from crossing the channel will ultimately stop the migration that planetary despoilation will eventually create.
The question is, what is going to be done about that? Or is it the plan to watch catastrophe unfold over the next decades with no intention of doing anything about it?
That is a question needing an answer, now.
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‘If goods don’t cross borders, armies will’ – Frederic Bastiat (1848).
So, everywhere it seems we have reactionary governments pulling up drawbridges as we head into to some huge challenges for the whole human race. The portents are not good.
(I like Bastiat because he thought about liberty and in his time was quite cynical about the State. His rigorous criticism of the State stands up today and is quite relevant but in a way I think he would be surprised and disgusted at since the State and the economy has obviously been captured by those claiming liberty from it – the self interested rich. Bastiat challenges us to reconcile competing issues of the individual versus the state. If we took more time to answer those challenges, our lives might be enriched).
It is amazing how blissfully unaware our ‘authorities’ are of the precariousness of food supplies. Rice shortages now to be followed by wheat, maize, soya, potatoes…………? Already some Lincolnshire armers and elsewhere, risk losing this years potato crop due to waterlogging and unable to harvest them. Don’t mention the future – droughts, fires . flooding due to rapidly increasing climate heating..
The wheat crisis 3 years ago indicates how things work out. There is a lot of slack in the food system, the main elasticity is in animal feed. Basically, when grain prices rise, people reduce their meat, dairy and egg consumption. This lead to over production of wheat relative to demand in the following years, resulting in a price crash which is now below production cost. ( Animal feed use has yet to recover) Even more perverse, due to the price v cost of production, global grain production in 2024 looks like contracting further.
Surprisingly, grain use for ethanol production and veg oil for diesel stayed stable, underpinned by the price of oil and gas.
Get used to being a involuntary vegan, Inveg?
Note: modern markets do not work well when there are varying delays in signals. Grain take 12 month to increase, animals take up to 3 years. but losing production is quicker, one flood, one drought, or loss of fertilizer production etc.
I blame neoliberalism
I blame the 50+ years of influence of the IEA.
David Reid, a fellow PhD student in Belfast 60 years ago, recently sent me an article he had written: ” This Planet Ain’t Big Enough For All of Us” (https://humanistperspectives.org/issue214/this-planet-aint-big-enough-for-all-of-us/#gsc.tab=0). He also sent a pie chart, which shocked me. I think it must have been based on this 2018 PNAS paper (https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1711842115)
The relevant data, taken from a graphic, are:
___________________
Land vertebrate biomass
Wild mammals 4.2%
Livestock 59.9%
Humans 35.9%
—————————–
For human population, I think we are already at or beyond the limits of growth. I am more optimistic that renewable energy is achievable, but what about food?
We are told that Britain is a wealthy country, but about 37% of our energy is imported, (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1182129/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2023.pdf) and over 40% of our food
(https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/united-kingdom-food-security-report-2021/united-kingdom-food-security-report-2021-theme-2-uk-food-supply-sources). We may export financial services, but you can’t eat them.
I am no expert, there must be much better data, but the question is simple.
When climate change leads to world famine, where will Britain’s food come from?
An excellent question
As vegetarians we could survive a lot more easily
Unless we protect farmland from thje sea we are in very deep trouble
We are not doing that
I blame genetically modified rice. It was supposed to improve productivity.
We are heading for a 3 to 4c rise in global temperatures by the end of the century. The consequences will be catastrophic. For example southern Europe will be uninhabitable.
In the Guardian today ;
“ Dr Christopher Wolf, at Oregon State University (OSU) in the US and a lead author of the report, said: “Without actions that address the root problem of humanity taking more from Earth than it can safely give, we’re on our way to the potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems and a world with unbearable heat and shortages of food and freshwater.
“By 2100, as many as 3 billion to 6 billion people may find themselves outside Earth’s livable regions, meaning they will be encountering severe heat, limited food availability and elevated mortality rates.”
Prof William Ripple, also at OSU, said: “Life on our planet is clearly under siege. The statistical trends show deeply alarming patterns of climate-related variables and disasters. We also found little progress to report as far as humanity combating climate change.
“Our goal is to communicate climate facts and make policy recommendations. It is a moral duty of scientists and our institutions to alert humanity of any potential existential threat and to show leadership in taking action.”
The analysis, published in the journal Bioscience, is an update of a 2019 report that has been endorsed by 15,000 scientists.
“For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future marked by extreme climatic conditions caused by ongoing human activities,” the report says. “Unfortunately, time is up … we are pushing our planetary systems into dangerous instability.”
Prof Tim Lenton, at the University of Exeter in the UK, the co-author, said: “These record extremes are alarming in themselves, and they are also in danger of triggering tipping points that could do irreversible damage and further accelerate climate change.