Yesterday's Twitter thread on inflation and the possibility that the Bank of England has now created an interest-price spiral was quite well read. This was the data this morning on the lead tweet:
I recently read an NGO report that said their media team were delighted to have a generated one million social media impressions in a year. Overall, my tweets got about 2 million yesterday. I might need to give this platform some more attention again after largely ignoring it for a while.
The result was that yesterday was busy, talking to journalists, being on air (LBC with Shelagh Fogarty the most notable) and talking with Owen Jones for 45 minutes on his show.
Today looks like it will also be busy. I start with some BBC local radio. I will then go on Politics Live on BBC 2 soon after 12, and am booked for Radio 4 this evening.
The idea that the Bank of England needs to do something very different right now will, at least, get an airing.
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This is great to wake up to! Enjoy the day!
Perhaps you can also push a single meme throughout the day. There are lots to choose from, e.g.
“Many people, politicians and even the BBC still believe that our taxes pay for spending.”
“Many people, politicians and even the BBC still believe that interest rates control inflation”
“Many people, politicians and even the BBC still believe that the National Debt is a debt”
I will try
I am now on 5 Live, BBC2 and the News Channel simultaneously from 9 until 10 as well
You may have the opportunity to make a distinction between the “economic beliefs” of currently wealthy people and the “laws of physics”.
The widespread “belief” that “economic growth” will give a short-term financial advantage to wealthy people living in currently advantaged countries may have some weight.
“Laws of physics” tell us that because there is *already too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere*, world average temperatures are higher than they used to be. As a direct result, the area of Arctic ice is much reduced decade after decade – so that there is less whiteness to bounce some of the sun’s heat back into space. Which means even higher temperatures over coming decades. Which will result in more chaotic weather, floods, droughts, wildfires, damage to crops and dire medium-term threats to world food supplies.
As the sun’s rays hit the Arctic head on through the thinnest part of the atmosphere this effect is quite a big deal.
A tipping point so to speak
So much that eminent Professor Steve Keen has been rejecting CO2 taxation to reduce emissions, even at very high rates, because it really is an emergency and meeting people part way and being accepting of taxing emissions for now isn’t going to get me the attention I deserve for being right about the GFC.
The Tory run Bank of England very much has its head up its proverbial in that it will not acknowledge that Brexit is an inflationary factor. Here for example:-
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/22/uk-dairy-prices-could-keep-rising-unless-staff-shortages-ease-co-op-warns
If there is one reason not to vote Conservative or Labour it’s that these parties simply aren’t pragmatic because they’re mired in the cult of Neoliberal ideology.
As our host has mentioned about Ukraine – the price shock drops out of the inflation data after 12 months.
@Schofield: Brexit happened more than 12 months ago. What is your thinking behind Brexit being a leading cause of inflation in this month’s data – and you can’t answer by using the Bill Kruse point that new restrictions are coming in October. What I’m looking for is new restrictions or barriers that have added to UK costs in the last 12 months due to not being an EU member.
You most kind to explain.
The cost of importing has risen steadily as businesses refuse to engage with the additional costs of doing it.
That is why Brexit is still imposing inflation.
Brexit has made it harder for the UK economy to respond to supply shocks due to increased friction reducing flexibility of supply. Those shocks will happen from time to time for a variety of reasons, for example, adverse weather events affecting agriculture or accidents affecting supply of raw materials or intermediate goods sourced from or via the EU single market and customs union. Of course, the economy is a complex non-equilibrium dynamic system so there are always multiple relationships affecting specific aspects such as gravity trade effects making supply choices to the much larger EU market more likely during a shock than to the much smaller UK market. These are also exacerbated by greater friction due to Brexit.
Miler Lourdes. Two answers to explain why Brexit continues to have an impact on inflation – imports not happening from the EU because of the increased paperwork involved and especially given climate change reducing agricultural output in the EU and secondly EU agricultural labour no longer in sufficient quantity for UK farming:-
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/22/uk-dairy-prices-could-keep-rising-unless-staff-shortages-ease-co-op-warns
Now of course Brexiters are having to make much higher interest payments on their loans amounting to considerable sums for house and car loans. Brexiters have been stuffed by the Tories! Perhaps one day they might put more effort into thinking things through before they vote!
Shame you weren’t on QT last night as well, Richard, as they steadfastly refused to say that Brexit was a cause of inflation. Even when an audience member told the panel about the problems he was having importing stuff from the EU he was still dismissed as of no consequence.
Of course most of the panel were just talking about services, not goods.
Jenny Chapman was useless.
Apparently the government has made it illegal for Sadiq Khan’s office to fly the EU flag today, despite 60% of Londoners voting to remain.
I saw it except the last 15 minutes – when I gave up
I have no idea what the programme was meant to achieve, but it failed
I hope they give you time to develop your points. So much ‘debate’ is people state their point but are given little time to explain why.
So far, little time on Radio 5 but I was told my interventions were good by some who heard them
Good luck Richard.
I think that we are all behind you.
Perhaps a good sound bite might be to raise the proposition of why the Bank of England and the government consider that making millions of British people poorer will benefit the economy, or help us to prosper as a nation.
Good luck Richard. BBC still doesn’t bring the critique of BoE etc into the mainstream debate – but giving you a marginal hearing is better than nothing.
So far so good today
5 Live OK
I am unfortunately missing Radio 2 and I am doing BBC 2 at 12.10
I wrote to the BBC Complaints people about their item that Hunt could do nothing about interest rates. (The link in their reply is to the article.)
I wrote, ” The government does have power over the BoE, actually. The legislation (the Bank of England Act 1998) provides reserve powers, under Section 19.
“Quote:
(1)The Treasury, after consultation with the Governor of the Bank, may by order give the Bank directions with respect to monetary policy if they are satisfied that the directions are required in the public interest and by extreme economic circumstances.
“The Chancellor may or may not have made the choice in this instance, but the Law gives them the power if required. To suggest otherwise is not a factual statement and is indeed misleading.”
Their reply?
“We were sorry to read you had concerns about the article ‘UK has no alternative to Bank interest rate rises to calm inflation – Hunt’ (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65891838).
“We always aim to report impartially and accurately.
“We appreciate your feedback that the article should also have mentioned the Treasury’s reserve powers under Part II of the Act, and your points were noted. We do appreciate your points about this, as we remain absolutely committed to bringing the user the most comprehensive, impartial, factual and fair news reporting.”
I am keeping my eyes open for a reiteration of the lie. There has been no adjustment to the original article.
A fair hearing from the BBC? Good luck, Richard.
Thanks for doing that….good stuff
A woman just asked about raising VAT rather than mortgage rates. Perhaps even different VAT rates for essentials v luxury items.
Seemed a sensible enough idea to me.
It is sensieble – and we can do it now as we did post 1979 (ues, Thatcher did this)
But the government pledged not to raise income tax, VAT & NI.
So it’s all political. And the even reneged on the NI. So it’s not even a pledge. They can sort this. But they choose not to.
Good work Richard, but be careful. Iconoclastic ideas can be at their most vulnerable when they start to get traction. As Banksy put it: “You are an acceptable level of threat and if you were not you would know about it.”
I am aware of that risk
Well done!
Let’s hope that your influential messages will have a cumulative snowball effect as you gain traction into the mainstream .
Wow! Took them long enough to find you and now they all want you at once.
Just had an email from weownit saying that the lunchtime meeting is cancelled today as the organisers are either ill or at speaking events. You may meet some of them on your rounds!
It means I can watch the whole of Politics Live.
So pleased that you’ll be on Politics Live today, it’s about time they (and the wider MSM) gave you a platform!
Why do they put policitians on these programs?
They’re not financially minded. They’re politicians. They have their own agenda. I’d rather see Baily (or one of his cronies) discussing this with Richard Murphy
The tory politician, Nick Fletcher, should have been made to declare his interest. He has two property companies, one of which he shares with his spouse, and owns 6 houses and 4 flats in South Yorkshire. I wonder when he will be putting his rents up.
Your Owen Jones talk needs to be seen by everyone, as it gives you time to explain.
@jenw
That’s interesting about Nick Fletcher
I prefer the Guido suggestion that it’s the broadcasters’ job to declare the interests of their guests and make them squirm as they are read out. They hire researchers and then invite them on after all.
Good performance Richard.
Could not see anyone effectively contributing any meaningful opposite argument.
It was a low trick by the BBC to bring up the Corbyn association , totally irrelevant.
Thanks
They love the Corbyn link
I seem to recall that the Tories have a few undesirable links of their own, no just to people, but also to the worse economy in history.
I have just listened to Rachel Reeves on the Today program. She repeatedly referred to fiscal responsibility and the independence of the BOE. The causes of the current inflation spike were not mentioned. James Cleverly is clearly uncomfortable talking about economics and and stuck to the party line on the need for interest rate controls. The size of the National Debt has now become a BBC soundbite. All very frustrating and depressing.
Here is an inflation driver as reported by PWC. The reference is to 2022. Some of the money will have been used to buy overpriced assets. And we can’t afford to pay nurses and doctors catch up increases which will definitely not be inflationary. Grrrr.
“Bosses of the UK’s 100 biggest publicly listed companies have seen their pay jump by an average of 23% to almost £4m because of record bonus payments.”
Rachel Reeves is a cardboard cut-out of a politician and purely one dimensional as a shadow and future chancellor of the exchequer (which means she is even worse as a chancellor than a politician).
Maggie Thatcher taught us an unfortunate fact about politics: that women can be no better than men, and they can no more save the world than a man can.
That’s the precarious state of politics at the moment I’m afraid – worst and best worst options on the gender front only.
What we really need is younger people as politicians.
The real fault lines are in age differences. Not gender.
PSR, how young is young?
My redwall MP is 38. He spent all his working life before becoming MP in 2019 working in CCHQ, first helping May become leader, then Johnson.
The woman in the next constituency is also a redwall, who has decided she doesn’t want to stand again despite being only 29. She is now the under-secretary of state for levelling up, in which capacity she had a very nice trip to Germany!
I heard Cleverley too.
Is it not ironic that whilst he was uncomfortable talking economics, his words about his own brief were totally unenlightening.
Politics Live
Richards segment begins around 8 mins 57 seconds.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001n4cm/politics-live-should-the-bank-of-england-raise-interest-rates
Thanks
Prem going to be on nottheandrewmarrshow on Sunday to explain labour’s bizarre economic strategy and the difficulty he has experienced in trying to influence any policy decisions.
Time limited on Politics live but within that I thought you did very well. It seemed well received by the two to the left of the presenter.
I enjoyed Owen Jones too ( not done much today) and he asked sensible questions and gave you time to explain.
You can reward yourself tonight.
I am knackered
I am watching the women’s test
Talking about on air, it’s a shame that tonight’s QT is purely about Brexit. However, I am sure that someone, possibly Anand Menon, can slant an answer to today’s interest rate rise.
The whole audience is made up of people who voted Brexit, but the government can’t manage to put up a brexiteer. John Redwood will have to field all the questions, against Alastair Campbell.
I don’t blame you.
I have had a busy day myself, and just caught up with your appearance on BBC.
You looked bloody annoyed if I may say so – I thought you were going to come through the screen!!
I found it quite novel to see that on the BBC for once.
🙂
Richard ,
I find your educational content and comments on the whole spectrum of finance, money, currency, usury etc. both enlightening and inspirational. E.g. your contribution to the Politics Live programme today (22nd June ) I think was immense and I immediately had to look you up again on the internet after a long lay-off after previously using you in debate and widely circulating your “Why the Government is lying when it says it cannot afford pay awards for the NHS and the Police” ( July 23 2021 ). I’m now still trying desperately to change the world/UK government again away from the massive ignorance ( deliberately imposed by billionaire capitalist controlling ‘family dynasties’ ) in public educational standards, from top to bottom, towards great progress emanating from your extremely valuable economics work and leading to the sustainable, sufficient-for-all universal utopia/nirvana which we active Green Socialists-Communists all seek in our hearts. I wonder to what extent you have published into available print all your great understanding and educational skills into how we move forward from the current dreadful neo-liberal rampant capitalist mess imposed upon world mass populations to achieve ‘our’ utopia ??
In book format I am a long way behinf in publishing
This bloig is where most of the material is to be found
at last you are being heard on MMS, offers some hope of the idiots in charge learning how to run the economy so everyone might benefit. Keep going.
Thanks